Don Roach: After Iowa, What Next?

Wednesday, January 04, 2012

Don Roach, GoLocalProv MINDSETTER™

 

Wow! That’s all I can say as I watch the results come in for the GOP Iowa Caucus. As of this writing an with 88% of precincts reporting Rick Santorum holds less than a 50 vote advantage over former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.

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This column was to be about the winner and what we can expect in future primaries. Also, who’s likely to drop out after Iowa – looking at you Ames Straw Poll winner Michelle Bachmann – and who has decent enough momentum to continue? Yet the GOP race for president has me baffled. A few weeks ago I predicted, with confidence, that Newt Gingrich would secure the nomination and go on to defeat Barack Obama. I thought for sure that Gingrich would leverage his vast political experience and not fall as the Johnny-come-lately candidacies of Cain and Bachmann had before him. Unfortunately, Gingrich has been proving my faith in him was terribly misplaced with misstep after misstep over the last few weeks.

His presidential campaign isn’t dead, but I messaged his team weeks ago and am still awaiting a reply. Not that I’m all that special, but when you wish to speak about a candidate and his views in the 21st century, any good campaign team needs to be able to quickly respond to the masses. This isn’t 1960, 1980 or heck even 2000. And it’s certainly not like I’m a ‘hostile’ to the Gingrich cause. I hope that my initial prediction proves correct but Gingrich is reverted to form, some say character, with some of his recent blistering attacks and shifting away from the ‘party uniter’ he had become in many of the debates.

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Rick Santorum latest flash in the pan?

But I digress. Today we’re talking about the Iowa caucus winner(s) and Gingrich isn’t on that list. Instead it’s been-the-front-runner-forever Romney and yes-I’m-still-in-the-race Santorum. Santorum’s showing is much more important than Romney’s as Santorum hadn’t polled well over the past several months in Iowa and as recently as right before Christmas was polling around 16 percent. Today, he’ll end up at worst in second place with over 20 percent and has a decent opportunity to win – and by winning I mean getting a little over a quarter of Republican support.

Nonetheless, we’ve seen this before. Ron Paul and Mitt Romney have their set supporters with everyone else looking for a candidate, any candidate, to separate themselves from the rest of the pack so that they can support anyone but Paul or Romney. This week it’s Santorum’s turn. What’s becoming clear is the fact that Republicans aren’t sold on Romney and the rest of the candidates are having a difficult time selling themselves to the public for sustainable periods of time. It happened to Bachmann, Cain, Perry, and Gingrich almost like clockwork. Obviously, if Santorum begins to poll well outside of Iowa, Romney et. al. will begin to pummel the former Pennsylvania Senator. And the question will be, will he be able to stand where everyone else has stumbled?

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Romney wants a crowded field

I’ve done enough predicting in this presidential race thus far so I’m not touching that one…today. I will say that Romney needs to begin to face the harsh reality that Republicans aren’t sold on him at all. It’s interesting, but the parallels between this race and the 2006 Chafee v. Laffey are intriguing. No there was not a cornucopia of candidates in that race, but Chafee probably was the more electable general election candidate while many hard line Republicans stood with Laffey because he represented much of traditional Republicanism. Romney’s not that guy and he simply is not winning over the majority of Republicans. Instead, he’s keeping his steady support and hoping that most of the candidates stay in the race long enough for him to become the ‘presumptive’ candidate. Imagine if Gingrich and Perry dropped out of the race today. Do those voters suddenly become Romney supporters? Hardly. But in a few weeks if Romney continues to do well enough, as in winning pluralities in the primaries/caucuses, he may gain enough steam for people to begin to think, “oh well, I guess he’s the candidate”.

Here in New England Romney has significant support. Most predict a comfortable victory in New Hampshire in the next primary. The true test of Romney’s Republican appeal will come in South Carolina in about three weeks. A poll right before Christmas had Gingrich first (37%) and Romney a distant second (21%) in South Carolina. However, a lot has happened in the last two weeks and a lot more certainly will happen during the next three before the primary. Again, Romney needs to hope that someone will bleed supporters from Gingrich and keep the crowd muddied. So long as no one single anti-Romney candidate emerges Romney remains the front-runner.

So what’s next?

I haven’t a clue. Many of the candidates have done a great job of imploding once they’re in the limelight or in the case of Ron Paul don’t seem to be able to expand their reach beyond a certain segment of the Republican wing. Romney has been the steady eddie of this motley crue and it’s hard to argue that if he continues to run well that someone can stop him. I certainly hope Gingrich or anyone else is that person, but if my latest predictions are any type of indicator please don’t hold your breath.

I know I won’t.

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