RI Has 2nd Highest Infection Rate in the World - But New Mutation May Pose Even Greater Threat
Nick Landekic, Guest MINDSETTER™
RI Has 2nd Highest Infection Rate in the World - But New Mutation May Pose Even Greater Threat
Arizona is the highest at 785, and we lead California’s 658. In comparison, the Czech Republic had a seven-day infection rate of 653.
Rhode Island’s management of the pandemic has been a failure. For the past three months, the state has consistently been among the worst by most objective measures. Rhode Island has the fourth highest per capita death rate of any state, and the seventh highest per capita rate of infection overall.
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLAST93,852 Rhode Islanders have tested positive to date, approaching 10% of the total population of the state. The actual number infected is probably much higher. The daily infection rate of 95.8 is 16% higher than the 82.9 when the ‘Pause’ was started on November 30, and stopped on December 20. With only a brief respite, for months we have been and are now the only state on the east coast in a Severe-Extreme outbreak according to covidactnow.org.
As dismal as Rhode Island’s management of the pandemic has been, we now face an even greater threat from the B.1.1.7 coronavirus mutation that is believed could be 50% more contagious than previous strains. The danger is worse than it seems because of exponential growth. Every infected person infects increasingly more people. As was observed by Dr. Adam Kucharski, Professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and discussed in a recent story in The Atlantic a 50% increase in infectiousness results in an almost 8-fold increase in deaths.
With one of the highest COVID-19 death rates in the country, at almost 1 out of every 500 Rhode Islanders already having died of the infection, any increase would be unimaginably catastrophic.
With exponential growth, small differences and actions early on make huge differences down the road. Acting now could save many, many lives – and delaying action will cost a great many.
We saw what happened in Rhode Island with the delay in March to implement a shut down. Just by taking two weeks longer than Vermont or Maine to close down, our infection rates grew and consistently stayed much higher than in those states. Today Rhode Island’s infection rate is nearly 6 times higher than Vermont’s 17.2. The same mistake was repeated in November, again delaying the ‘Pause’ with the result that for a time Rhode Island had the highest infection rate not just in the country but the entire world.
The same mistake is now being repeated a third time. Rhode Island’s daily infection rate has spiked 21% in just 3 days. It is likely not a question of if but when the new mutation will be here. It has already been identified in nearby New York, as well as California, Colorado, and Florida. With Rhode Island’s ‘open door’ policies favoring the virus, it could rip through our state with devastating speed and appalling consequences.
Vaccinations are not happening fast enough to prevent this. To date, 26,163 vaccine doses have been given in Rhode Island, about 2.5% of the population, at the rate of about 1,400 per day. Rhode Island is receiving 14,000 doses per week, enough for 7,000 people. As was reported here last week, even if the vaccination rate were doubled it would take two years to vaccinate 80% of Rhode Islanders. covidactnow.org forecasts that 100% of us will become infected within one year, long before we are vaccinated. The coronavirus, and especially the new mutation, won’t wait for us.
Much has been written about how the U.K. is crippled by the new B.1.1.7 mutation, with a near total lockdown being implemented to save lives. The daily infection rate in England is 86.4. Rhode Island’s infection rate is 11% higher, yet indoor dining at restaurants, gyms, nail salons, casinos, places of worship, child care centers, recreation facilities, and retail stores are all open.
Many public health experts have warned that indoor dining in restaurants is dangerous and leads to spread of infection, a long list including Dr. Anthony Fauci, Dr. Laurie Archbald-Pannone of the University of Michigan, Dr. Thomas Russo of the Jacobs School of Medicine, Dr. Ryan Huerto of the University of Michigan, and Dr. Kathleen Brown of the University of Tennessee. A recent study showed that infection happened in a restaurant in just 5 minutes being 20 feet away from an infected person.
Yet in Rhode Island not only is indoor dining at restaurants allowed, but on December 20 Governor Raimondo increased the permitted capacity from 33% to 50%.
It’s hard to imagine what more could be done to make it easier for the virus to spread here.
One would think that under these grim circumstances, our state leadership would listen to world-renowned experts like Dr. Ashish Jha of Brown University, and heed the pleas for action to save lives and safeguard health. Rhode Island’s seemingly virus-friendly policies could make it dangerously easy for the mutation to spread with deadly speed. Allowing people to gather unmasked in enclosed spaces is a recipe for infection.
‘Lockdown’ has become even more politicized than mask wearing. Time and time again it’s been proven that lockdowns work, and are the best protective measure available for containing the pandemic. This was clear even in 1918 during the Spanish flu. Across the country when containment measures were implemented, cases went down, and when the measures were called off, infections increased. As a result, more than half the cities in the U.S. suffered two waves of the flu, when containment measures were lifted too soon because of impatience.
New Zealand has a population of 4.9 million, roughly five times more people than in Rhode Island. They have had a total of 2,186 cases compared with our 93,852. Their total COVID-19 deaths have been 25, compared with our 1,870.
‘Density’ is sometimes tried as the excuse why Rhode Island cannot contain the pandemic. However, much more densely populated places have been able to contain the pandemic. In the U.S. New Jersey has a higher population density than Rhode Island but at 51.6 an infection rate roughly half of ours. Taiwan’s population density of 1,742/sq mi far exceeds Rhode Island’s 1,020. With a population of 24 million, Taiwan has had a total of 817 cases and only 7 deaths. Vietnam’s population density of 813/sq mi approximates Rhode Island, yet the infection rate there is 14,000 times lower than ours.
‘Density’ cannot be blamed for the pandemic conditions in Rhode Island. That responsibility is on the shoulders of our elected leaders.
All these places had leaders willing to follow guidance informed by science, and make hard, unpopular decisions that resulted in saving lives, reducing sickness, containing the pandemic, and a return to a semblance of normal life. In comparison, today the current daily infection rate in Rhode Island is about 10,000 times higher than in New Zealand or Australia. The results speak for themselves as to which approach works better.
Greater protective measures right now would be a huge help for the same reasons as ignoring the virus would be deadly. Exponential growth works both ways. For every person not infected, there are many more who also then also don’t get infected. What Rhode Island does right now will decide how many people live or die in the coming months.
Which group would you rather be in?