Endorsement Mania 2014: What Does it Mean?
Friday, May 30, 2014
What do political experts think about political endorsements?
Rhode Island gubernatorial and Providence mayoral candidates are touting endorsements on an almost daily basis, and while former elected officials, party chairs, town committees, and numerous stakeholders are weighing in on who they support for a seat, academics and political pundits vary in their opinion of their value.
Slides: See RI Gubernatorial and Providence Mayoral Candidate Endorsements to Date BELOW
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Veteran Rhode Island political pollster Victor Profughi, however, spoke to what he saw as the political capital -- or pitfalls -- of endorsements.
"Endorsements may have some psychological impact on candidates, both those endorsed and those who failed to be endorsed, but I doubt that many voters are impacted by them. Their greatest value might be assistance in fundraising and leaving the impression of gaining momentum. Party endorsements may have some limited value in some areas of the state in primaries but even in primaries they can cut both ways," said Profughi.
Profughi noted the difference of what he believed endorsements meant in the past -- and what they mean today.
"From the days when party machines really existed, and voters were far less informed from a variety of sources, party endorsements (and voter loyalty) was much higher," said Profughi. "Today it is definitely every candidate for himself or herself."
Deciding Factors
Rhode Island College Professor of Communications Valerie Endress addressed other factors that she viewed as increasingly more important than endorsements.
"Endorsements are rarely a game changer. It is true that union, interest group, and political party endorsements can mean more money in the campaign coffers and more volunteers working on behalf of the candidate. And, too, endorsements do attract some media attention," said Endress.
"Those advantages, however, have been eclipsed by such factors as PACs and super PACs pouring big money into campaigns, huge media buys that keep political ads in front of the electorate at a steady stream, more debates at the state and local level, and the candidates' increasingly adept use of social media," Endress continued. "What probably matters most with an endorsement is whether that organization is effective in get-out-the-vote (GOTV) efforts. In a close race, GOTV efforts are essential, particularly in races in which there are no incumbents."
West remained firm in his view that voters made up their minds independent of candidate endorsements.
"People are very independent-minded these days and they evaluate what happens during the campaign and make their decisions accordingly. The candidate who has the most endorsements does not always win. It just means they have put a lot of effort into winning group support and that may or may not translate into electoral success," said West.
In the Republican gubernatorial primary, the candidates were split as to the role of endorsements in their campaigns.
"Mayor Fung is honored to have strong support from the leadership of the Rhode Island Republican Party and is very grateful for the work of grassroots supporters from all around Rhode Island who are mobilizing now to ensure victory in the Primary Election and in November," said Fung spokesperson Rob Coupe. "Republicans throughout Rhode Island clearly recognize Mayor Fung's success at cutting spending, balancing budgets, and creating jobs and believe he will do the same in the Statehouse. Rhode Island Republicans are evaluating Ken Block based on his actions -- his support for President Obama and Obamacare is unacceptable to all but a few Republicans and they realize his recent change of heart amounts to nothing more than personal and political opportunism."
Jeff Britt, spokesperson for Ken Block, took a different vantage point.
"In the Republican primary the endorsements have not historically mattered. They're nice to have, but Lincoln Almond was not the endorsed candidate, and neither was Don Carcieri -- both won the primary and went on to win the general election," said Britt. "We welcome all the support that we get as Ken talks every day about the issues that we need to fix RI. Being too focused on endorsements is the insider way. That's not Ken Block's way."
Fields Set?
How do endorsements factor in, if former Mayor Vincent "Buddy" Cianci enters the Providence Mayoral race?
With City Council President Michael Solomon has garnered by far the highest number of endorsements to date, pundits weighed in on what endorsements might mean -- or might not mean -- if former Mayor Vincent "Buddy" Cianci decides to enter the race.
"If Buddy Cianci enters the mayoral race, it will shake things up," said West. "People who made prior endorsements may take another look at the field and shift depending on what they see. Since Cianci is well-known, he is less dependent on endorsements than less known candidates would be."
Endress thought that the current endorsements would remain status quo.
"With the exception of the millennials (predicted to show up at the polls in low numbers in 2014), Buddy Cianci is a polarizing figure in Rhode Island politics. Because he evokes strong feelings--both positive and negative--endorsements are unlikely to change the outcome, should he enter the race," said Endress.
"Buddy needs a multi-candidate race to win. He has a probable base of support of maybe one-third or so of the vote. He need not fret about who has whose endorsement at this stage," said Profughi. "He can be counted on as a very shrewd bean counter. If he decides to run, I'm fairly sure that he will have calculated what he needs to do to put together a path to victory, and I would never underestimate his ability to win, regardless of who goes on the record as endorsing whom."
Related Slideshow: 2014 Candidate Endorsements
Below are the lists of endorsements to date of the field of Rhode Island gubernatorial candidates, as well as candidates for Mayor of Providence.
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