Clay Pell

Race:  Democratic Primary for RI Governor

With the firepower of the NEA-RI behind him, Pell will need to realize a big turnout from the teachers union -- and progressive supporters -- to propel him past frontrunner Raimondo, and Taveras, who he's s neck and neck with entering Tuesday.  As for the disclosure Pell was a registered Republican, while there's no evidence it could sway undecideds, it was an 11th hour revelation of note. 
 

Gina Raimondo

Race: Democratic Primary for RI Governor

It's all about GOTV for Raimondo.  With a lead in the polls, Raimondo needs to get her base to the voting booths -- the pro-pension reformers (or some say pro-Wall Street contingent), her strong contingent of female supporters, and importantly, those who are in line with her socially liberal and fiscally more conservative platform. 

Angel Taveras

Race: Democratic Primary for RI Governor

The Providence Mayor's numbers continued to level off in the waning weeks of the primary season. With a surging Pell, Taveras has to get his progressive base out -- and hope that he gets a strong showing in Providence, which represents a significant share of the Democratic primary vote.  With Pell and Taveras battling it out for the liberal undecided vote, Taveras will need to realize gains in the zero-sum contest with Pell.

Ken Block

Race: Republican Primary for RI Governor

In terms of primary turnouts, as GoLocal reported, the GOP historically has been across the board over the years, in terms of who shows up at the polls in a given election.  Block has got to be strategizing the most comprehensive GOTV effort of any of the gubernatorial candidates in order to ensure he gets numbers he needs -- including convincing independents to join the GOP ranks if just for the primary, in order to boost his chances for making it until the next test in November.

"Block has supporters all around the state, so it's not a particular bloc of voters, but rather his ability to mobilize his known supporters," said Speakman. "Because the numbers who vote in this primary are relatively small, every supporter mobilized counts."

Allan Fung

Race: Republican Primary for RI Governor

Cranston Mayor Allan Fung will need a strong showing in his home city as well as adjacent Warwick and surrounding areas, because as his wheelhouse, if he can't win there, he's done.  While the two candidates have tried to out-Republican each other, both have taken their hits in terms of voting Democrat in the past.

"If turnout in the urban areas is high, Fung benefits," said Speakman.

Ralph Mollis

Race: Democratic Primary for RI Lt. Governor

The current Secretary of State and former Mayor of North Providence will depend on the party machinery -- and a strong turnout in his hometown of North Providence - to propel him past his opponents and into the general election.  Watch to see how he fares in McKee's Cumberland and Blackstone Valley -- if he's able to snag a significant portion of that, that could ultimately put him ahead of the pack.

"Mollis has the voters who feel comfortable with familiar candidates," said Speakman.

Dan McKee

Race: Democratic Primary for RI Lt. Governor

Like his Mayoral counterpart in the Governor's race in Mayor Fung, McKee must win his home base first and foremost.  He also needs a strong showing from the education reform and good government groups to give him enough of a groundswell to surge by Mollis.  Unlike Mollis, McKee doesn't have any union support, so while he can't call on the sheer numbers unions can bring, he similarly attracts another subset of voters that are staunchly reform-minded.

"McKee has the benefit of a rush of last-minute ads," said Speakman.

Frank Ferri

Race: Democratic Primary for RI Lt. Governor

The most progressive of the group will need to tap that base -- hard - in order to have a shot at victory on September.  Ferri will require a truly activist voter turnout in the Democratic primary that support him as the biggest "outsider" in race of all currently elected politicians, including himself. 

"Ferri's got the progressives," said Speakman.

 

Seth Magaziner

Race: Democratic Primary for General Treasurer

The politically-connected newcomer will need to field a sizeable vote count in the state's urban voting precincts in order to prevail against one-time Treasurer Caprio, whose name recognition -- and previous stint at General Treasurer, belies his position in the polls.  The undecideds will play a big role in this race, so Magaziner will need to prove that a newcomer -- with his limited experience -- is enough to surpass the prior position-holder.

"Magaziner has wide spread appeal because of his saturation ads and energetic campaign," said Speakman.

Frank Caprio

Race: Democratic Primary for General Treasurer

The former Treasurer needs to win big in the high-density areas, counting not only on his previous base of support, but more importantly, have the previously undecided voters show up and choose experience and track record over the new face who's promising a fresh start against politics-as-usual in the state. 

"Caprio, like Mollis, benefits from being a known commodity, so voters who vote for names and faces they know will support Caprio," said Speakman. "His last-minute head shot ad is effective, but again, not to a particular block of voters."

Nellie Gorbea

Race: Democratic Primary for Secretary of State

The Deputy Secretary of State will need to count a big showing in the state's urban cores, as well as look for strong representation from women at the polls.  A big question is how will Raimondo voters will go in the Secretary of State race.  Will Gorbea be able to benefit from a down-ticket female draft -- and can she garner a big bump if the state's urban Latino vote is high -- are two factors to look for come Tuesday. 

"No natural constituency for either of these candidates as well, although if Latinos vote as a bloc that obviously helps Gorbea," said Speakman. "But her appeal, and his, is not to one particular group."

Guillaume de Ramel

Race: Democratic Primary for Secretary of State

The one time candidate (who lost to Mollis in the Secretary of State primary in 2006), with deep pockets and name recognition, will have to vie with a political primary turnout that is usually more insider than outsider, which could gives hiis opponent a boost with name recognition.  Providence will be a big battleground that is up for grabs in the Democratic primary for Secretary of State.  And of course, taking his home base of Newport is needed as well. 

"Here again, the ad war matters," said Speakman.

Jorge Elorza

Race: Democratic Primary for Providence Mayor

Can the former Housing Court Judge and Roger Williams University law professor cobble together the magical East Side - South Side combo that has proved kingmaker for his two predecessors?  Expect to see Elorza make a strong showing on the East Side with Smiley's exit, but the southside is up for grabs.   Elorza will need to turn the vote out especially strong there there -- and among Latinos in general -- to beat the ground game of Michael Solomon.

"Elorza benefits from high turnout among East Side progressives and Latinos," said Speakman.

Michael Solomon

Race: Democratic Primary for Providence Mayor

The City Council President has a machinery in place that should enable his camp to drive a strong voter turnout -- but the question will be whether he can ensure his folks will come to the polls.  In addition, don't underestimate the power of Vincent "Buddy" Cianci to influence his supporters to jump in the Democratic primary to vote for the candidate he would prefer to see come November.