Horowitz: Hillary Clinton in the Driver’s Seat

Tuesday, November 08, 2016

 

View Larger +

As people go to cast their votes today in Rhode Island, Massachusetts and through the nation, mainly choosing between the two most unpopular major party candidates for President in the history of modern polling, all indications are that Hillary Clinton is very much in the driver’s seat.  

While a Trump victory remains a possibility and some analysts, such as Nate Silver, rate his odds of winning to be as much as 1-in-3, Hillary Clinton enters election day with about a 4 point lead in the national polls, a far superior election day operation and multiple paths to the 270 electoral votes needed for victory.

It looked good for Clinton before FBI Director James Comey took much of the power out of Trump’s closing argument that we should not elect someone under criminal investigation by declaring that the FBI’s examination of the emails found on Anthony Weiner’s computer did not surface any new evidence that would cause him to revisit his decision in the summer that no reasonable Prosecutor would bring a case against the former Secretary of State for her use of a private email server.

GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLAST

Polls conducted in the wake of Comey’s original letter to Congress sent out the week before indicating that the FBI had discovered a new cache of emails that could be pertinent to the presumed closed Clinton case, predictably showed a tightening race. But by mid-last week, the impact of this announcement had begun to wear off, and Clinton began to once again increase her lead.

More telling, the party and demographic composition of early voters, now north of 40 million, contains much good news for Clinton.  The dramatic up-tick in Latino turnout, for example, has probably already put Nevada out of reach for Trump and appears to be giving Cinton an edge in Florida—two critical battleground states which are just about must wins for the Businessman and former Reality Star.

Given Trump’s racially charged rhetoric about, Latinos, his demagoguery on the issue of immigration and his hard-edged anti-immigration policy positions, it would be only fitting if the main driver of his defeat was a record Latino vote.

In an electorate that wants ‘change’’, and was teed up for a Republican victory, Donald Trump should have the political wind at his back. But a majority of voters believe he has neither the qualifications nor the temperament to serve as Commander in Chief. In contrast, while a majority of voters have an unfavorable perception of Hillary Clinton, they do believe she has the right temperament and qualifications to occupy the oval office. If Clinton emerges the victor tonight, it will be in mainly because voters decided that Donald Trump was a ‘too risky’ choice.

My guess is we are looking at at least a 5 point Clinton popular vote victory and for her to amass more than 300 electoral votes-the kind of victory that will make Trump’s dangerous and absurd charges of the ‘election being rigged’ seem as absurd as they are.

If I am wrong, you all know where to find me.

Much more important than predictions by me or anyone else, however, vote today, no matter for whom you plan to vote.. It is not only a right; it is an responsibility of citizenship in what remains the world’s greatest democracy.

 Rob Horowitz is a strategic and communications consultant who provides general consulting, public relations, direct mail services and polling for national and state issue organizations, elected official and candidates.  He is an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at University of Rhode Island

 

Related Slideshow: Seven Big Surprises So Far in the 2016 Election Season in RI

View Larger +
Prev Next

#1

GOP Chaos

This year had all the makings for a big pick-up by the Rhode Island Republican Party, but to quote Earth Wind and Fire, “Something happened along way.” 

Instead of a robust GOP slate of candidates that would have challenged the Democratic party — who is suffering from Ray Gallison, Anastasia Williams and John Carnevale hangovers — the minority party has been unable to put forth an average -- or even sizeable group -- of candidates.

Maybe the GOP infrastructure should have spent less time of the Presidential primary circuit, less time bickering, less time on the opinion page, and more time rolling up their sleeves and doing the real work of running a minority party.  Recruiting candidates, fundraising and building a technology infrastructure is handwork. Going to the Presidential debate in New Hampshire is fun.

View Larger +
Prev Next

#2

Progressives are Marching

It started with the Bernie Sanders rally at Roger Williams Park before the Democratic Presidential primary — an estimated 7,000+ showed up for the Dem Socialist before he crushed Clinton in RI. 

It was supposed to be the year of the GOP in RI. With angry voters flocking to Donald Trump, Sanders captured the wave of big upsets. The GOP was supposed to be the party that tapped into the dissatisfaction of voters, but in order to capitalize, you have to have credible candidates and a strategy. So far the progressives look to be offering a competitive collection of candidates.

View Larger +
Prev Next

#3

Doreen Costa, is that really your story?

Doreen Costa has been an emerging star for the RI GOP for the past few years. She has been at the forefront of so many battles and has been one of the most energized legislators. Now, she is stepping down at the last moment due to self-inflicted term-limits. 

As part of her announcement, GOP Chair Brandon Bell said, “Doreen can see outside the dome. She was on Smith Hill for the right reasons and now she is moving on to her next commitment to public service."

This is a big loss for the GOP and an unusual story for her exit.

View Larger +
Prev Next

#4

Who is more powerful -- Warren or Barrington?

The Democratic battle for Rep District 67 is looking like a rivalry battle between tony-Barrington and the folks in Warren. Long-time Democratic Representative Jan Malik is being challenged by Jason Kinght who has a base in Barrington. 

On Monday, the Barrington Town Committee voted to endorse Jason Knight for over the incumbent, Representative Jan Malik. “I’m so pleased and thankful to the committee for their endorsement,” stated Knight. “I’m campaigning to bring a new voice to the state house for Warren and Barrington and clearly the committee agreed that it is time for a change.”

Knight continued, “The voters of Warren and Barrington have a choice this year between a conservative incumbent who is anti choice and has enjoyed the support of the NRA or a new voice with real Democratic values who supports ethics reform and knows that we need new and creative ideas to get our economy back on its feet. The committee's vote shows that Barrington is ready turn the page.”  

View Larger +
Prev Next

#5

Carnevale Draws Fire

Representative John Carnevale is out on a disability pension, once was charged with rape, but the woman who filed the charge died unexpectedly before Carnevale went to trial.

His most recent challenge is a law enforcement investigation as to whether he has violated voting laws by living outside his district and voting at a location that he did not live. Now, he faces five opponents: Ramon Perez, Lisa Scorpio, Joshua Beeman, Anthony Defilippo and David Marshall.

View Larger +
Prev Next

#6

GOP Chaos (Part 2)

Speaker Nicholas Mattiello lives in a district in Cranston that Mitt Romney captured 47 percent of the vote in 2012. Thus, it is a competitive district for the GOP, but instead of marshaling their energies and talents they have decided to run two candidates.

Steve Frias, an attorney in Boston and a Providence Journal contributor, is now facing a primary from anti-vaccination activist Shawna Lawton for the GOP nod and the opportunity to face off against the most powerful elected official in RI -- but not from the GOP pespective to replace him.

You would think the GOP could avoid a primary in the most important race in Rhode Island.

View Larger +
Prev Next

#7

The Biggest Ethics Reformer

No one has had more success in the past two decades driving ethics legislation through to adoption than Speaker Nick Mattiello. In his couple of years as Speaker he has overseen the elimination of the Master Lever and the passage of a complete overhaul of the ethics statute.

That transformation now goes before the voters for approval in November.

 
 

Enjoy this post? Share it with others.

 
 

Sign Up for the Daily Eblast

I want to follow on Twitter

I want to Like on Facebook