Horowitz: Unpopular Presidential Nominees Create Opening for Libertarians
Tuesday, May 24, 2016
NBC News summed up its recent Wall Street Journal/NBC News Poll by accurately labeling the two likely major party nominees, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, “Mr. and Mrs. Unpopular.". At their current negative ratings of 58% for Trump and 54% for Clinton, they have earned the dubious distinction of being the two most unpopular likely nominees in the history of the poll.
More importantly, Trump and Clinton are strongly disliked by more than 4-in-10 registered voters. This negative intensity creates a difficult barrier for both candidates, making it difficult for them, despite their best general election efforts, to turn these impressions around for a large segment of the electorate. This is especially the case because they will have to do so in the face of saturation-level negative advertising designed to reinforce and amplify voters’ current unfavorable views.
With their nominating convention coming up this weekend, this creates a big opportunity for the Libertarian party. Their likely ticket of former Republican Governors’ Gary Johnson (NM) and William Weld(MA) for President and Vice-President is potentially attractive. Both were successful, effective governors Further, the Libertarian platform, combining strong advocacy for limited government, socially liberal views such as supporting legalization of marijuana, and a belief in less interventionism and military activity abroad, can attract some voters. But the potential for achieving a substantial percentage lies with people who can’t stomach either of the major party nominees, casting a protest vote for what they find as an acceptable alternative.
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Johnson, who garnered about 1% of the vote as the Libertarian candidate for President in 2012, is currently polling at about 10% in general election match-ups that include him. If, as is likely, Weld ends up as his running-mate, the telegenic and highly intelligent former Massachusetts Governor will be a big asset and certainly garner more than his fair share of media coverage.
There is a possibility that the efforts of both major party candidates to tear the other down will be so successful that Johnson and Weld will be polling at 15% or more and as a result qualify for the fall Presidential debates. Currently, nearly 1-in-2 registered voters are open to a third party candidate, according to the Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll.
A complicating factor for the Libertarians would be the emergence of an independent conservative alternative, but given the difficulty of getting on state ballots, time is quickly running out for the never Trump people that are working so far fruitlessly to recruit a candidate. Gary Johnson has told the Never Trump crowd that he’s the alternative; pithily saying, “I’m it. And as of today, he is right.
It is difficult to impossible to envision a Libertarian victory; 10 to 15 %, however, is not out of reach. This is likely to benefit Hillary Clinton. A recent Monmouth poll reports that Johnson is getting about 15% of the vote in Republican and swing states and only about 6% in Democratic states.
But for the Libertarians, no matter who wins the general election, this is a unique opportunity to truly have their message heard by the nation—and to win sufficient votes to take their party and ideas to the next level. Let’s see if Johnson and Weld seize the moment; it is unlikely to come around again any time soon.
Rob Horowitz is a strategic and communications consultant who provides general consulting, public relations, direct mail services and polling for national and state issue organizations, various non-profits and elected officials and candidates. He is an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at the University of Rhode Island.
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