GoLocal Statewide Poll: Raimondo and Fung in Dead Heat for Governor
Friday, June 08, 2018
Kate Nagle, GoLocal News Editor
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Governor Gina Raimondo (L) and GOP challenger Allan Fung (R)
Incumbent Rhode Island Democratic Governor Gina Raimondo is in a deadlocked race with GOP candidate Allan Fung for Governor of Rhode Island, according to a new poll released by GoLocalProv on Thursday, June 7.
See the Full Poll Results Below
The poll was conducted by GoLocal’s polling partner John Della Volpe, who is Director of Polling at Harvard Kennedy School’s Institute of Politics and considered one of the top pollsters in America.
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The match-up question asks, “If the election for Governor were held today and the candidates were: Democrat Gina Raimondo, Republican Allan Fung, and Independent Joe Trillo - for whom would you vote?”
Allan Fung, a Republican 33%
Gina Raimondo, a Democrat 33%
Joe Trillo, and Independent 16%
Don't know 18%
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Harvard's John Della Volpe
The poll has a sampling of 501 Rhode Island registered voters.
“As of this moment, the fact that a majority of Rhode Islanders are optimistic about the state's future is not paying a lot of dividends for the Governor. Only half of those who are optimistic support her in a match-up against Fung and Trillo, 19% are undecided,” said Della Volpe.
A separate question found that a majority of voters in Rhode Island are optimistic about the future, a finding that should bode well for Raimondo’s effort for re-election, but clearly isn’t.
Thinking ahead several years, is your outlook about Rhode Island more optimistic or more pessimistic?
Optimistic 52%
Pessimistic 48%
The X-Factor
The x-factor to this race is that former Republican State Representative Joe Trillo seems to be capturing a good part of President Donald Trump’s base vote in Rhode Island. Trillo who was Trump’s chair in 2016, captures 16 percent of the vote in this poll - a number that should be perceived as disturbing for the Republican Fung.
Fung lost to Raimondo in 2014 in part due to the Moderate Party’s Bob Healey. Healey captured nearly 22 percent of the vote and most pundits believe the majority of the Healey vote would have gone to Fung. The final tally in 2014 was Raimondo 40.7 percent, Fung 36.2 percent, and Healey 21.6 percent.
This article was first published 6/7/18 10:30 AM
Related Slideshow: GoLocal Statewide Poll - Conducted by Harvard’s Della Volpe - June, 2018
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Registered Voters
Q1: Are you registered to vote in Rhode Island?
Total 501 100%
Yes: 501 100%
No: 0 0%
Don't know: 0 0%
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Age
Q3: In which age group are you?
18-24: 7%
25-34: 16%
35-44: 15%
45-54: 20%
55-64: 17%
65+ 25%
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Political Party
Q4: When it comes to voting, do you consider yourself to be affiliated with the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, Moderate, or Unaffiliated with a major party?
Democrat: 38%
Republican:14%
Moderate: 6%
Unaffiliated: 39%
Don't know/Refused: 3%
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Likely Voters
Q5: Next year, in November of 2018, there will be a statewide general election for Governor and many other state offices. How likely is it that you will vote in this election? Will you definitely be voting, will you probably be voting, are you 50-50...
Definitely be voting.............................. 81%
Probably be voting............................... 19%
All others............................................. 0%
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Top Issue
Q6: What would you say is the number one problem facing Rhode Island that you would like the Governor to address?
Taxes.................................................. .18%
Jobs and economy.............................. 16%
State budget.........................................11%
Roads...................................................10%
Education............................................ 8%
Healthcare........................................... 5%
Corruption/Public integrity.................... 4%
Immigration.......................................... 4%
Housing.............................................. ..2%
Governor............................................. ..2%
Homelessness.......................................1%
Other.. ............................................... 14%
Don’t know.......................................... 6%
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Direction
Q7: In general, would you say things in Rhode Island are headed in the right direction or are they off on the wrong track?
Right track........................................... 19%
Wrong track......................................... 36%
Mixed.................................................. 45%
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Optimism
Q8: Thinking ahead several years, is your outlook about Rhode Island more optimistic or more pessimistic?
Optimistic............................................ 52%
Pessimistic...........................................48%
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Finances
Q9: Over the last three years or so, has your family's financial situation improved, gotten worse, or not changed at all?
Changed for the better......................... 24%
Changed for the worse......................... 33%
Not changed at all................................ 43%
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Governor
Q10: Which of the following comes closest to your view regarding each of the following potential candidates for governor of Rhode Island?
Gina Raimondo, a Democrat
I am sure to vote for her: 9%
There is a good chance I will vote for her: 19%
It is possible that I vote for her: 24%
It is unlikely that I will vote for her: 18%
I will never vote for her: 31%
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Governor
Q11: Which of the following comes closest to your view regarding each of the following potential candidates for governor of Rhode Island?
Matt Brown, a Democrat
I am sure to vote for him: 4%
There is a good chance I will vote for him: 8%
It is possible that I vote for him: 40%
It is unlikely that I will vote for him: 30%
I will never vote for him: 17%
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Governor
Q12: Which of the following comes closest to your view regarding each of the following potential candidates for governor of Rhode Island?
Spencer Dickinson, a Democrat
I am sure to vote for him: 3%
There is a good chance I will vote for him: 7%
It is possible that I vote for him: 37%
It is unlikely that I will vote for him: 35%
I will never vote for him: 18%
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Governor
Q13: Which of the following comes closest to your view regarding each of the following potential candidates for governor of Rhode Island?
Paul Roselli, a Democrat
I am sure to vote for him: 2%
There is a good chance I will vote for him: 7%
It is possible that I vote for him: 35%
It is unlikely that I will vote for him: 37%
I will never vote for him: 19%
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Governor
Q14: Which of the following comes closest to your view regarding each of the following potential candidates for governor of Rhode Island?
Allan Fung, a Republican
I am sure to vote for him: 7%
There is a good chance I will vote for him: 18%
It is possible that I vote for him: 28%
It is unlikely that I will vote for him: 25%
I will never vote for him: 21%
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Governor
Q15: Which of the following comes closest to your view regarding each of the following potential candidates for governor of Rhode Island?
Patricia Morgan, a Republican
I am sure to vote for her: 3%
There is a good chance I will vote for her.: 9%
It is possible that I vote for her: 32%
It is unlikely that I will vote for her: 35%
I will never vote for her: 21%
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Governor
Q16: Which of the following comes closest to your view regarding each of the following potential candidates for governor of Rhode Island?
Giovanni Feroce, a Republican
I am sure to vote for him: 2%
There is a good chance I will vote for him: 5%
It is possible that I vote for him: 24%
It is unlikely that I will vote for him: 35%
I will never vote for him: 34%
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Governor
Q17: Which of the following comes closest to your view regarding each of the following potential candidates for governor of Rhode Island?
Luis-Daniel Muñoz, an Independent
I am sure to vote for him: 3%
There is a good chance I will vote for him: 6%
It is possible that I vote for him: 33%
It is unlikely that I will vote for him: 38%
I will never vote for him: 21%
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Governor
Q18: Which of the following comes closest to your view regarding each of the following potential candidates for governor of Rhode Island?
Joe Trillo, an Independent
I am sure to vote for him: 1%
There is a good chance I will vote for him: 8%
It is possible that I vote for him: 37%
It is unlikely that I will vote for him: 34%
I will never vote for him: 19%
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Governor
Q20: If the election for Governor were held today and the candidates were: Democrat Gina Raimondo, Republican Allan Fung and Independent Joe Trillo - for whom would you vote?
Allan Fung, a Republican..................... 33%
Gina Raimondo, a Democrat................ 33%
Joe Trillo, and Independent.................. 16%
Don't know 18%
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Governor
Q20: If the election for Governor were held today and the candidates were: Democrat Gina Raimondo, Republican Patricia Morgan and Independent Joe Trillo - for whom would you vote?
Gina Raimondo, a Democrat................ 39%
Patricia Morgan, a Republican............. 20%
Joe Trillo, an Independent................... 19%
Don't know ......................................... 22%
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Governor
Q21: If the election for Governor were held today and the candidates were: Democrat Matt Brown, Republican Allan Fung and Independent Joe Trillo - for whom would you vote?
Allan Fung, a Republican..................... 35%
Matt Brown, a Democrat...................... 25%
Joe Trillo, an Independent.................... 14%
Don't know .......................................... 27%
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Governor
Q22: If the election for Governor were held today and the candidates were: Democrat Matt Brown, Republican Patricia Morgan and Independent Joe Trillo - for whom would you vote?
Matt Brown, a Democrat...................... 30%
Patricia Morgan, a Republican............. 20%
Joe Trillo, an Independent.................... 18%
Don't know .......................................... 33%
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U.S. Senate
Q23: If the election for the U.S. Senate were held today and the candidates were: [ROTATE] Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse and Republican Robert Nardolillo - for whom would you vote?
Sheldon Whitehouse, a Democrat........... 53%
Robert 'Bobby' Nardolillo, a Republican.. 31%
Don't know............................................... 16%
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U.S. Senate
Q24: If the election for the U.S. Senate were held today and the candidates were: [ROTATE] Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse and Republican Robert Flanders - for whom would you vote?
Sheldon Whitehouse, a Democrat........ 54%
Robert Flanders, a Republican............. 32%
Don't know.......................................... 14%
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Schools
Q25: If there was an election today, would you vote to approve or reject issuing $250 million in financing supported general obligation bonds to repair Rhode Island's deteriorating school buildings and bring them up to minimum standards called "warm, safe and dry"?
Net: Approve...................................... 74%
Definitely approve............................... 36%
Probably approve................................ 38%
Net: Reject......................................... 17%
Probably reject.................................... 9%
Definitely reject.................................... 7%
Don't know.......................................... 9%
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PawSox
Q26: The Rhode Island General Assembly is in the process of negotiating a $40 million public financing deal with the Pawtucket Red Sox for a new stadium, hoping to bring a vote before the House and Senate this summer.
In general, do you favor or oppose the use of public funds to help finance a new stadium for the Pawtucket Red Sox?
Net: Favor.......................................... 33%
Strongly favor...................................... 13%
Somewhat favor.................................. 21%
Net: Oppose....................................... 59%
Somewhat oppose.............................. 21%
Strongly oppose.................................. 38%
Don't know.......................................... 8%
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Fane Tower
Q27: The City of Providence and the state of Rhode Island are considering a proposal by New York developer Jason Fane to build a 46-story luxury residence tower in Providence, next to a public riverfront park. The developer will invest $250 to $300 million of his own funds. The project is called the Hope Point Tower, it would be 170-feet taller than the Superman building and would require waiving height restrictions and the use of state tax credits.
In general, do you favor or oppose development of the Hope Point Tower?
Net: Favor.......................................... 39%
Strongly favor...................................... 13%
Somewhat favor.................................. 27%
Net: Oppose....................................... 50%
Somewhat oppose.............................. 23%
Strongly oppose.................................. 27%
Don't know.......................................... 11%
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Elorza/Traffic Cameras
Q28: How would you rate the job that Mayor Jorge Elorza has done managing issues related to speed cameras in Providence?
Net: Excellent/Good.......................... 26%
Excellent............................................. 6%
Good................................................... 20%
Net: Fair/Poor.................................... 74%
Fair...................................................... 29%
Poor.................................................... 45%
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Q29: Since it was launched in 2016, UHIP -- the Rhode Island program designed to improve customer service for those who receive federal benefits -- has run into significant problems, including long lines, cost overruns, lost applications, over- and under-charging of patients and families.
Based on what you know at this time, what percent of blame for this do you assign to:
Deloitte, the consulting company who
produced the system........................... 53.3%
Governor Gina Raimondo, who has
been governor since the system
launch in September 2016................... 47.1%
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NIMBYism
Q30: Presently, there are local groups opposing the development of a natural gas facility in Burrillville, solar projects in Exeter, a LNG facility in Providence and wind projects in North Kingstown.
Some people say that it is important for local groups to play a role in opposition of projects like these that could be dangerous or harmful to citizens;
Others say that local groups have gone too far to the detriment of the state’s long-term energy needs.
Which statement comes closer to your own view?
Local groups play an important role...... 46%
Local groups have gone too far............. 31%
Not sure................................................. 24%
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Corruption
Q31: Compared to other states, do you think there is:
More political corruption in RI................. 63%
Less political corruption in RI................ 7%
About the same level as other states..... 30%
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Income
Q32: The next question is about the total income of YOUR HOUSEHOLD for the PAST 12 MONTHS. Please include your income PLUS the income of all members living in your household (including cohabiting partners and armed forces members living at home).
$50,000 or less.................................... 33%
More $50,000 but less than $75,000..... 18%
More $75,000 but less than $100,000... 16%
More $100,000 but less than $150,000. 13%
$150,000 or more................................ 10%
Don't know/refused.............................. 10%
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Ethnicity
Q33: What particular ethnic group or nationality - such as English, French, Italian, Irish, Latino, Jewish, African American, and so forth - do you consider yourself a part of or feel closest to?
Net: White, Non-Hispanic..................... 82%
Black or African American.................... 6%
Latino/Hispanic.................................... 5%
Other.................................................... 7%
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Geography
Q34: City/Town Into Region.
West Bay............................................ 28%
Metro-Providence................................ 28%
Blackstone Valley................................ 21%
South County...................................... 10%
East Bay............................................. 13%
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