Experts Break Down Brendan Doherty's Path to Victory

Experts Break Down Brendan Doherty's Path to Victory

First-term Congressional candidate Brendan Doherty has been hesitant to criticize Congressman David Cicilline’s eight-year tenure as Mayor of Providence, but if he is going to be victorious in November, he’ll need to highlight the financial problems plaguing the capital city, according to various analysts and campaign strategists.

The key, experts say, is to frame the race as a matchup between the former head of the State Police and Cicilline, the man who critics say withheld information about the city’s finances in his final days as Mayor and left current Mayor Angel Taveras with a $110 million structural deficit.

In the process, Doherty will also need to distance himself from charges that he supports a far-right wing agenda that includes revamping Medicare and cutting Pell Grants for college students.

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“His best option is to localize the campaign and keep attention focused on the Congressman's record,” said Darrell West, Vice President of Governance Studies and Director of the Center for Technology Innovation at the Brookings Institution. “Democrats will want to nationalize the campaign and turn it into a referendum on House Republicans and their radical agenda.”

A Different Kind of Republican

Doherty, who has been criticized by members of his own Party for not being conservative enough, has seemingly gone out of his way to say he will not always toe the Party line, although he has not offered specific issues on which he differs from the national GOP yet.

According to political consultant Rob Horowitz, It will not be enough to just attack Cicilline for his statements and record as Mayor of Providence. Horowitz believes that despite the current animosity felt toward Cicilline (a 14.8 percent approval in a recent Brown poll), voters will still want to send someone to Congress who shares their values and concerns.

In the traditionally liberal 1st District, that likely means avoiding Republican rhetoric at all costs.

"Brendan Doherty needs to position himself as a different kind of Republican---one not in lockstep with the House Republicans nationally,” Horowitz said. “This must be more than just rhetorical. He needs to pick some high profile issues and hammer home his disagreements with the national Republican leadership and even the Republican Presidential nominee.”

Strong Fundraising the Key

But Republicans say a pro-business message combined with successful fundraising will be the key for Doherty. According to Republican operative and former GOP executive director Patrick Sweeney, Doherty has already proven that he can win the race.

“In order to have a successful campaign you need money, organization, and a strong message,” Sweeney said. “Col. Doherty has proven to be an extremely successful fundraiser, is continuously adding pieces to the team where necessary, and his message of growing the private sector and getting the government out of the way is resonating with the voters. It also helps when your opponent has a 15% approval rating.”

Sweeney said the bigger question is whether Doherty will even faceoff with the incumbent in November. He said he believes Anthony Gemma, who is expected to announce his candidacy later this month, has a real chance to be the Democratic nominee in the 1st District.

“The bigger question still remains whether Brendan will face Cicilline or Gemma in the general election,” Sweeney said. “The Doherty camp will need to have a "Plan B" strategy if Gemma makes it out of the primary.”

 

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