“Rhode Island's recovery from the 2008 recession did not keep pace with most states. If history repeats itself, voters may be drawn to give a Republican gubernatorial candidate a closer look,” said Rhode Island College Professor Val Endress. “And, too, Democrats did not fare well in down-ballot races nationally, and that fact may portend a further swing to the right in the 2022 midterms. Yet, for Rhode Island, ‘all politics is local’ and the mood of the voter will largely depend on the condition of the state.”
SLIDES: See Who Could Be Running for Governor in 2022 BELOW
"For now, many of the unknowns loom large: What will the recovery look like for Rhode Island? Will the state once again lag behind the rest of the nation? Will President Biden have the political power to enact a broad-based recovery program? What is the likelihood that a federal jobs program will trickle down to Rhode Island? Will there be meaningful support for the state's small businesses, and can they reinvent themselves in a post-pandemic economy? Answers to these questions over the next two years will undoubtedly shape the 2022 gubernatorial race," said Endress.
A deep field of potential Democratic contenders could be eyeing a run in the next gubernatorial cycle in Rhode Island — and the Republicans will have a reckoning, after Cranston Mayor Allan Fung lost his last two bids for the seat.
"What might take precedence, however, is the fact that state Democrats have a deep bench. Already several well-known potential candidates are teeing up fundraising. If the GOP is going to compete, there needs to be a similar effort and a break from a holding pattern that seems dependent upon whether or not Mayor Fung chooses to make another gubernatorial run," Endress added.
Rhode Island -- and Nation -- In Focus
Matt Guardino at Providence College also spoke to the midterm party control flips that have occurred in Congress — and why Rhode Island could be an outlier.
"Quite often, the political winds are favorable for out-party challengers even in gubernatorial elections," said Guardino. "This is especially true if there’s growing dissatisfaction with the party that holds the White House, and that translates into more mobilization and fund-raising opportunities for the other side in down-ballot races. We saw this in 2010 and 2014 under the Obama administration, and then again in 2018 for Democratic gubernatorial races under Trump."
"That said, these dynamics vary a lot by state," he added. "The Democratic Party is still powerful and popular in Rhode Island, and it may take a pretty big red wave to flip the governor’s office in 2022."
“It is hard to anticipate what the big problems will be in 2022. Hopefully, COVID will have dissipated by then and no longer be a major threat,” said Brookings Vice President Darrell West, who formerly headed up the Taubman Center for Public Policy at Brown University.
“The state of the economy will depend on how big the stimulus package that likely will pass Congress in the next year. Healthcare always is going to be a challenge for many people. And there could be foreign policy issues that rise to the forefront,” said West. “Whatever the issues are, the president's party almost always loses seats in the midterm election. With Democrats likely to have a very narrow majority after this election, they will be at risk of losing control if the economy remains weak or healthcare is a big problem for people.”
SLIDES: See Who Could Be Running for Governor in 2022 BELOW
Related Slideshow: 2022 Governor’s Race—Here’s Who Could Be Running—November 18, 2020
The term-limited Mayor of Cranston could have several factors working in his favor should he try and run a third time for Governor, after two unsuccessful bids -- but he still has one big question to answer.
First, his wife’s unseating of Speaker of the House Nick Mattiello keeps the Fung name front and center for the next two years at least. While Barbara Ann Fenton-Fung made waves with the huge win, she is now a back-bencher freshman legislator for the minority caucus, which is near political Siberia. Fenton-Fung however isn’t afraid to speak her mind, so expect to hear more from her, even if legislative wins aren’t in the cards.
Second, Fung-endorsed Mayor-Elect Ken Hopkins keeps the Fung GOP faction alive and well in Cranston and beyond.
Third, a Biden presidency is all but assured to produce a strong GOP showing nationally in the 2022 midterms, which could only serve to benefit Fung.
He does however have to answer for the same issues that plagued him in two losses - namely why Rhode Islanders should chose him — and his vision to lead Rhode Island forward.
To say 2020 has been a quiet year for Rhode Island’s General Treasurer is an understatement.
Magaziner however continues to line his campaign coffers, raising just over $80,000 in the 3rd quarter of 2020 to bring his cash balance to $963,654.
He was on hand for a ribbon cuttings (federal funding for the Port of Galilee, for instance) and removing “Providence Plantations” from state stationery before it was officially voted by Rhode Island voters to be stripped out of Rhode Island’s state name.
He did hire a new spokesperson — Rosie Hilmer, a former Sheldon Whitehouse and Hillary Clinton — in September.
Will Hilmer answer press inquiries? A GoLocal investigation unveiled Magaziner’s father — Ira Magaziner — flew with Jeffrey Epstein multiple times internationally.
Magaziner’s office, while claiming the senior Magaziner has nothing to do with his son’s role as Treasurer, cut off press access to GoLocal — despite the senior Magaziner purportedly having nothing to do with the Treasurer’s office.
The now second-term House Minority Leader made some waves in 2020 as he pushed back against Governor Raimondo’s handling of the coronavirus crisis.
Prior to the pandemic, Filippi had led the effort to exert pressure on soon-to-be former Speaker of the Nicholas Mattiello’s Machiavellian control of the Joint Committee on Legislative Services, after Mattiello tried to wield the power of the JCLS to demand an audit of the Rhode Island Convention Center — in order to protect a friend.
From questioning the state’s proposed lottery contract extension to why the General Assembly couldn’t do more during coronavirus, Filippi continued to add to his resume as an emerging Republican leader who wants to get things done.
The question is, does Filippi want to usurp Fung as the party’s heir apparent — and can the GOP handle another round of infighting if so?
The second-term Providence Mayor continues to amass a sizable war chest, raking in over $75,000 in the third quarter of 2020 — in a non-election year for him — bringing his cash on hand to $733,291.
After the State of Rhode Island came in and took over the city’s schools under his leadership, the issue of policing — and crime — has come to a head in 2020, with violence, illegal ATVs, and homicides plaguing Providence, compounding the economic difficulties of the coronavirus crisis.
Elorza, who infamously opted to go to a Mayor’s conference in Hawaii while a fierce budget battle raged back home in 2019, was called out by the Police union in 2020 for weighing in on police controversies across the country — but staying silent on the violence in Providence.
A crowded Democratic field, however, could work in his favor, with an increasingly smaller margin of victory necessary to win.
Former Moderate Party founder and gubernatorial candidate turned GOP aspirant Ken Block has not said whether he’ll run — but he has made it clear he is considering the landscape.
"Rhode Island is in a serious crisis - multiple crises, actually. The next governor will be a crisis governor," Block told GoLocal. "Who honestly wants to work as hard as it takes to win the job and spend the money it takes to win the job when the job will be dramatically more difficult than many previous governors excluding the last year of Raimondo's term."
"There will not be the flexibility and resources to do a lot of "vision" governance. A lot of really hard decisions will have to be made that are likely to aggravate a lot of people," he added. "The race is something to be considered, but the job will be dramatically different and more difficult than ever before - at least in my lifetime."
The former Providence Mayor and ardent Raimondo supporter has made it no secret he is eying the Governor’s office — again.
Paolino, who ran in 1990 and lost to Bruce Sundlun in the Democratic primary, is very much in the political mix in Rhode Island and nationally, hosting a Presidential fundraiser for Pete Buttigieg during the 2020 Democratic primary cycle — not without controversy.
As a real estate developer, Paolino knows the harsh realities facing the City of Providence — and even more so during the pandemic.
He has oftentimes been a foil to Mayor Jorge Elorza, calling on him to take greater action on issues of safety in Kennedy Plaza and throughout the city.
Paolino finished out his term as Mayor of Providence in 1991 — can he make a big political comeback nearly 30 years later?
The first-term Attorney General — after having served as U.S. Attorney for the District of Rhode Island from 2009 to 2017 — is widely considered to be looking at pursuing higher office.
His tenure so far on South Main Street has been relatively uneventful — the Wyatt correctional officer who drove his truck through a crowd of protesters in 2019 who ultimately faced no charges by the AG’s office was perhaps his most high profile action to date.
Now, perhaps Neronha’s biggest case — the state versus former Speaker of the House Nicholas Mattiello consultant Jeff Britt — hangs in limbo following the trial, pending a bench decision.
As a number of high-profile cases are emerging and citizens groups and high profile environmental groups are criticizing the Rhode Island Department of Environmental Management (RIDEM) and Governor Gina Raimondo’s vigilance or lack thereof in protecting the environment, Neronha has defended his record.
Can he — or will he — make a play in 2022 is yet to be seen.
She did it once, so why shouldn’t she think she could do it again?
In one of the most high-profile races of 2020, Fenton-Fung unseated the all-powerful — but politically battered — House Speaker Nick Mattiello in House District 15 in Cranston.
While she might officially be a low-ranking Republican freshman legislator, she could use her momentum and try and pull a political leapfrog and forgo seniority formalities — think Barack Obama serving one term as United States Senator before saying, “Hey, I want to be President now.”
Now — the only question with soon-to-be former Mayor of Cranston and husband Allan Fung at the dinner the table might be, whose turn is it?
The term-limited Secretary of State said during an appearance on GoLocal LIVE on Election Night said it was too early to speculate about running for Governor, but now with the 2020 cycle all but in the rearview mirror, Gorbea has to be looking ahead.
Gorbea added over $63,000 to her campaign account in the third quarter of 2020 — all while overseeing the state’s election process.
She now has nearly $330,000 cash on hand — a marked increase over her slightly more than $100,000 last time GoLocal took a look at gubernatorial aspirants in 2019.
In a crowded Democratic field, Gorbea would need to make the case that her vision — and experience — match up and surpass those of her competitors.
The Lieutenant Governor has been an outspoken small business advocate during the coronavirus crisis — and often questioning Governor Gina Raimondo’s strategy and intent.
While McKee has largely been shut out of Raimondo’s public relations strategy during the pandemic, he is utilizing his position as Lt. Governor to press for greater action by the state.
On Tuesday, McKee and the Rhode Island Small Business Coalition today sent letters to Governor Gina Raimondo and members of the Rhode Island General Assembly urging a “collaborative effort” to provide additional relief to small businesses before the state's CARES Act funds expire on December 30, 2020.
Requests include immediately allocating an additional $75M in CARES Act funds to the Restore RI grant program and adding another $75M if small businesses are ordered to shut down to stop the spread of the virus. These proposals follow outstanding requests from the Lt. Governor to simplify the Restore RI grant application, open the program to all small businesses regardless of industry, increase the minimum and maximum grant amounts and allow newly opened businesses to qualify.
"If we truly want to help small businesses in a meaningful way, we must quickly disburse remaining grant dollars and provide additional relief before the CARES Act funds expire on December 30," said Lt. Governor Dan McKee. "With new projections showing a significant reduction in the state budget deficit from $900M down to just $114M, allocating additional funds to small businesses is a reasonable and responsible thing to do."
Leading progressive — and former Rhode Island State Representative — Aaron Regunberg could be eying the Providence Mayor’s race, the Rhode Island Governor’s race, or any number of options.
Regunberg, who lost in his last bid for office in 2018 when he tried to best Lt. Governor Dan McKee — has been politically active, most recently in spearheading an effort to advise Rhode Island Senators Sheldon Whitehouse and Jack Reed to “block the SCOTUS nomination” of Amy Coney Barrett.
A strong supporter of a “Green New Deal” in Rhode Island, Regunberg this week backed now-former Providence police review panel Executive Director Jose Batista, after Batista unilaterally released the video of Providence Police Sergeant Joseph Hanley’s video arresting a man in April with the PERA board had said indicated abuse by Hanley.
Former Democratic gubernatorial candidate Matt Brown, who ran for Governor in 2018 as a progressive Democrat, was involved in the formation of the Rhode Island Political Cooperative in 2019, to promote progressive Democratic candidate campaigns in Rhode Island.
He has not been active in fundraising — raising no money in the third quarter — but having been involved in the recent election cycle, can’t be counted out.
Developer Colin Kane has been rumored to be eyeing the Governor’s office in 2022, but this week, told GoLocal he is “not planning on running.”
Kane, who developed one of Newport’s newest hotels, Hammetts Wharf, has been involved in real estate throughout Rhode Island, including most recently pursuing Pawtucket’s Division Street area.
Republican Jim Bennett — who ran against Don Carcieri in the 2002 Rhode Island Republican gubernatorial primary — could be looking.
Bennett, who served as Economic Director for the City of Providence before now serving as Senior Vice President for Prospect Healthcare in Rhode Island, said this week it was “still too early” to say anything.
“I’ve been approached about the possibility, yes,” said Bennett. “But right now I’m working for Prospect.”
The man — and technocrat — responsible for building Deepwater Wind into a national model for offshore wind continues to be talked about as a possibility for 2022.
A former Don Carcieri staffer, Grybowski could shake the Republican mold and run outside the GOP constraints - as an independent.
With business and political experience, Grybowski could position himself as a distinct option from career politicians.
The soon to be Speaker of the House was on many a shortlist for the 2022 gubernatorial race — prior to the defeat of Nick Mattiello this election cycle.
While Shekarchi — and his formidable war chest that tops all others in Rhode Island — is likely not thinking about vacating his soon-to-be role as most powerful legislator in Rhode Island — don’t ever count Shekarchi out.
As GoLocal has reported, if Rhode Island loses a seat in the House of Representatives expect United States Congressman Jim Langevin to consider a run for Governor.
He is personally popular, but not a favorite of progressives.
He will have 20 years in the House -- and will have to come up with an explanation of why he has been unable to pass any major legislation in two decades.
In addition, he will have to articulate a vision for Rhode Island -- that is different than being a backbencher in Congress.
