RI’s “Real” Infection Rate Is Approximately 6%, Raimondo’s Testing Strategy Comes Under Criticism
Saturday, October 24, 2020
The number of new coronavirus cases in Rhode Island hit a record high on Friday.
Case count has tripled in the past three days and there are growing concerns that the states testing strategy and data reporting is not only doing little to address the virus that is now growing rampantly, but is providing flawed reports.
Rhode Island is the only “Active or imminent outbreak” state on the entire East Coast, according to Covid ActNow. One would have to travel west and south to Kentucky to find a state at the same highest risk level.
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Testing Reporting Is Flawed
Rhode Island’s testing reporting is lumping symptomatic with both asymptomatic testing going on at the colleges and universities and the general population.
Approximately half of the daily testing results are now asymptomatic testing which have very little disease infection.
GoLocal has learned that the RIDOH has major data collection and reporting flaws. It cannot track real-time whether a test is asymptotic or symptomatic -- a significant data error according to former Rhode Island Health Director Dr. Michael Fine who helped both Central Falls and Pawtucket create their reporting systems and both can real-time track the different tests.
According to Joseph Wendelken, the state can only separate the asymptotic test results from symptomatic after the tests have been conducted and through staff work. “We get the information through case investigations (interviews),” he told GoLocal.
“I think it asks the question whether the strategy of investing all this money in testing has worked,” Fine said on GoLocal LIVE on Friday. “We have to look really hard at whether our strategy of putting all our effort into testing is working — and the evidence is it’s not. “
On Friday, the State of RI reported:
14,073 Total tests
449 Total Infections
GoLocal has learned that the following college and university numbers were included in the state’s total testing
5,034 asymptomatic were conducted at the college and universities
12 cases
Further, based on last week’s state asymptomatic testing in RI (Raimondo said 15,000 tests were conducted)
2,100 asymptomatic tests conducted by the state (estimated based on previous week’s data)
4 cases estimated
Therefore, removing the asymptotic tests conducted by the state and the colleges and universities, the numbers are:
6,939 Symptomatic Tests
437 Cases
"Real" Infection rate of 6.2%
Thus, the “real” infection rate is approximately twice the rate reported by Rhode Island officials on Friday of 3.2%.
Massachusetts officials separate college and university testing separately.
RI System is Breaking Down
“The biggest danger is that it will spread widely and we don't have a way to check its spread. If we're at these numbers I fear they are likely to exceed the capacity of my already overworked and incredibly dedicated colleagues at the Department of Health to do contact tracing," said Fine.
“I’m seeing the breakdown of some of that already -- they're working as hard as they can and doing everything they can and they're working impossibly long hours but there are just not enough bodies there to get the contact tracing done and then we really never got sophisticated about isolating people who were positive,” Fine added.
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