Rhode Island’s Population Is Projected to Shrink

Rhode Island’s Population Is Projected to Shrink

Rhode Island may become the incredible shrinking state.

A recent study is projecting that the population of Rhode Island will decrease over this decade and beyond.

The study was completed before it was disclosed that Rhode Island’s population was overcounted in the most recent Census Bureau Count.

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The U.S. Census Bureau released data last week that showed Rhode Island’s population was overcounted by between 50,000 and 60,000 — it is estimated that the count was overestimated by 5%.

Rhode Island is one of eight states that were overcounted in the 2020 census. State's Census counts are used to allocate congressional seats and federal money.

"We estimated undercounts for Arkansas, Florida, Illinois, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Texas. We estimated overcounts for Delaware, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York, Ohio,  Rhode Island, and Utah," according to the 2020 Post-Enumeration Survey Estimation Report.

 

New Study Projects Substantial Population Decline

A report issued this month by Wall Street 24/7 projects that Rhode Island’s population will shrink over the next decade and beyond.

The decline will be one of the highest in the country.

"The U.S population barely grew from 2010 to 2020, based on historic standards. According to the Census Bureau, the population of the United States on April 1, 2020, was 331.4 million, an increase of 22.7 million, or 7.4%, from 2010. That was the slowest growth rate in decades," reports Wall Street 24/7.

The states with the fastest-growing populations between 2010 and 2020 tended to be located in the South and the West. Meanwhile, over the same period, the states with the slowest population growth were disproportionately located in the Northeast.

According to a study published by the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service at the University of Virginia, these regional trends show no signs of slowing in the coming decades, and the population of 11 states, mostly in the West, will grow in excess of 20% by 2040. Meanwhile, nine, mostly Northeastern, states will be home to fewer people in 2040 than now.

To find the states that will grow the most by 2040, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service National Population Projections. States were ranked by the percentage change in population from 2020 to 2040. While some states are projected to see their population decline by 7% or more, the population of other states will expand by about a third.

 

Rhode Island is ranked 44th for "growth" in the next 20 years.

> Projected pop. change, 2020-2040: -0.7% (-7,016 people)

> 2020 population: 1,062,334 (7th lowest)

> 2040 projected population: 1,055,318 (5th lowest)

 

In December of 2018, when the retail chain Benny’s announced it was closing, Arnold Bromberg, the CEO of the now-defunct company, appeared on GoLocal LIVE and said that when he started working for the family business at the age of 16, they had just a handful of stores and the state had a population of one million people, and that 50 years later, Rhode Island's population was roughly the same.

He cited the lack of population growth as a factor in the demise of the family-owned retailer.

 

Texas and Beyond

"According to projections, Texas is the state that will grow the most by 2040. (This is the state where the population has grown the most since the pandemic.) In Texas, the state that will grow the most, the population is projected to grow by 35%, or 10 million people, by 2040. Texas will then become the second most populous state with 40 million residents," reports Wall Street 24/7.

According to the report, "Past trends can help explain future ones. Internal migration accounted for the growth in some sections of the country and attrition in others. In just the past 30 years, New York went from being the second most populous state to being the fourth, after being surpassed by Texas in 1994 and Florida in 2014."

"These demographic shifts can have significant consequences for local economies and governments. Negative or slow population growth can lead to weaker economic growth and fewer economic opportunities, which in turn can push more people out of a given state. Population decline can also mean reduced revenue for state governments and limited funding for public works and services and reduced ability to meet budgetary obligations," the report adds.