Is New England Going to Have a Harder Winter Than Last?
Wednesday, October 21, 2015
Following a winter in which Rhode Island saw record breaking snowfalls (February’s 31.8 inches at TF Green broke the previous record of 30.9 inches in 1962) — what does this coming winter hold?
“Weather is a huge disruptive force, particularly for businesses that rely on customer foot traffic. I am thinking specifically of restaurants that can be economically devastated by “a blizzard on Valentine’s Day” and, equally so, devastated by weather forecasts for extreme conditions that may not materialize,” said Laurie White, President of the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce. “Many businesses can deploy their remote capabilities, but many cannot—particularly those with large employee head counts.”
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLASTThe National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its 2015-2016 “U.S. Winter Outlook” last week, an due to El Nino it predicted the Northeast will have a warmer — and wetter — than normal winter. NECN reported, however “Super Cold, Slew of Snow Predicted for New England by Old Farmer’s Almanac” at the end of the summer.
So which one is it?
“I can't say with any confidence how this winter will turn out as there's a variance in signals with respect to global weather patterns,” said Benjamin Sipprell with the National Weather Service in Taunton, MA. “In the northern hemisphere, there are mixed-signals. It can go one way or the other with respect to temperature and precipitation. There's a dependence on how the atmosphere responds.”
Experts Weigh In
NOAA maps show temps in the Northeast being 33% to 40% warmer than usual this winter; precipitation is slated as being normal or slightly up for the region.
GoLocal veteran meteorologist John Ghiorse was similarly reluctant to make any bold predictions.
“As usual, I am very skittish when it comes to seasonal weather predictions. There are so many variables to consider (El Nino, Arctic Oscillation, etc.) that we know about and far more variables that are unknown or that we know so little about. I do, however, sense (mainly from the strong El Nino predicted) that this winter will not be as brutally cold for such an extended period as we had last winter," said Ghiorse. "This is based on the idea that the Arctic cold would be trapped in Northern Canada for much (but not all!) of the winter."
Ghiorse continued, "As for precipitation, I sense neither exceptionally wet or exceptionally dry. It is usual in an El Nino winter that we do see regular stormy periods but many of the storms are snow to rain or just rain, especially along the coastal plain (which includes Providence but not Worcester). Any prediction of how much snow we'll get at a given location is out of the question but, in general, snowfall should be about average to slightly below average for the season overall (Providence average is around 34" for the season, Worcester around 64"). This "sense" is based, as I said, on the predicted unusually strong El Nino. If that El Nino does not develop as strongly as expected or diminishes half way through the winter ... disregard the above!”
Sipprell noted that years with past strong El Nino patterns didn’t always have the same weather outcomes.
"The thing is -- you have a strong El Nino, but it's unclear how it will impact our region. Historically, the stronger ones -- we've seen them in the past, 1982 and 1998 -- those both had had different implications, they weren't synonymous," said Sipprell. "I will say if there was an overall trend, I could say warmer and drier if it holds out."
Whichever the case, the Chamber’s White stressed the importance of winter preparedness.
"The business community has become much more outspoken in recent years that state and local governments must clear the road ways and parking lots so that commerce can flourish. Sure, the “once in a decade type of storm” is an exception, but a couple of inches on the ground is not a reason to shut down," said White.
White also added that staggered starts and dismissals and ‘urging employers to develop a plan ahead of time’ have helped keep the traffic flow moderated.
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