Experts Break Down Anthony Gemma’s Path to Victory
Monday, April 09, 2012
His first run for office included promises to create thousands of new jobs for Rhode Islanders, build a more open government and a pledge to give up his first year’s salary in an attempt to hire more staffers to help launch a jobs plan. It was also filled with vicious attacks on then-Providence Mayor David Cicilline and a slew of policies and proposals that led many to question whether he was running for Congress or Governor.
But with Congressman Cicilline’s approval rating below 15 percent according to the latest Brown University poll and no other primary opponents in sight, political observers say Anthony Gemma will pose a credible challenge to the incumbent as long as he runs a disciplined campaign that will attract conservative-leaning Democrats.
Gemma, who has spent the better part of the last year criticizing Cicilline’s handling of the capital city’s finances as he ran for Congress in 2010, is expected to publically kick off his campaign on Sunday evening.
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One of the keys to victory, according to Quest Research pollster Victor Profughi, will be Gemma’s voter identification strategy. Profughi said Gemma will need to target primary voters willing to vote against the incumbent.
“For the primary Gemma needs to do some very sophisticated targeting to identify voters who will participate and identify and profile Independents who could be enticed to vote in the primary against Cicilline,” Profughi said. “Then go after them.”
Both Gemma and Cicilline trailed Republican candidate Brendan Doherty in a recent WPRI poll, which means the self-financed Gemma will likely face a costly general election battle if he can defeat the Congressman in a primary.
“If he wins the primary, he will need to firm up his Democrat credentials and build on the traditional Democrat base, expanding his coalition to include targeted Independents,” Profughi said.
Attacks Alone Won’t Work
While Gemma will likely run a slew of negative ads similar to the commercials he ran in 2010, veteran local campaign manager Rob Horowitz said Gemma cannot win the race by simply attacking Cicilline’s character and the city of Providence’s fiscal condition. He predicted the pro-life businessman will struggle to gain support from the liberal voters of the 1st Congressional District.
"Continued strident attacks on David Cicilline will not be nearly enough by themselves for Anthony Gemma to win the primary,” Horowitz said. “While there is certainly dissatisfaction with Cicilline among some primary voters, Gemma's positioning as a more conservative kind of Democrat makes it hard for him to seize the opening. The primary electorate is disproportionately liberal in ideological composition.”
Still, there is a path to victory for Gemma. Horowitz said the candidate must refine his campaign message and convince conservative independents to turn out in droves if he is going to win the primary.
“Gemma must work to expand the electorate by attracting conservative-leaning independents and democrats who do not usually vote in Democratic primaries,” Horowitz said. “He must also develop his own appealing and substantive policy positions--ones that this time are relevant to the office he will hold.”
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