Is Cantor’s Loss a Message to Incumbents in Rhode Island?
Friday, June 13, 2014
The recent defeat of the incumbent U.S House of Representatives Majority Leader Eric Cantor to Tea Party candidate Dave Brat was a major, unexpected shakeup in Congress -- but what does that mean for Rhode Island?
"If there is any message to incumbents in Cantor's loss, it's pay attention to your district or state," said Jennifer Duffy with the Cook Political Report. "A secondary message would be don't run dumb ads," adding, "[Cantor] essentially bought $1 million in name ID for Brat. And the ads were bad in that they made charges that didn't pass the smell test."
In the Rhode Island Republican gubernatorial primary in Rhode Island, Cranston Mayor Allan Fung's campaign brought the issue into play, saying that Cantor's loss was "bad news for opponent Ken Block".
"That's campaign rigmarole," said Jeff Britt with the Block campaign.
Political Implications
"Cantor's loss doesn't have much relevance for the Rhode Island delegation because all of them do a good job keeping in touch with their voters. They return home regularly and have strong outreach," said Darrell West, Vice President of the Brookings Institution in Washington, DC. "Cantor lost because he stopped paying attention to his district and spent too much time traveling around the country."
As for the impact of the Tea Party in the victory, Duffy offered her perspective.
"Throughout the primary season, there has been a lot of talk about the death of the Tea Party. After Cantor's loss, the story became that the Tea Party is alive and well. Both of these story lines overstate the case," said Duffy.
Duffy continued, "First, it is worth noting that no Tea Party organization endorsed or contributed money to David Brat. That didn't stop most Tea Party groups from jumping on his victory band wagon. The Tea Party hasn't had a great primary season, largely because a lot of incumbents have learned how to fight back. This does not mean that the movement is dead, just that the playing field has become more level. The Tea Party has absolutely no impact in Rhode Island."
Roger Williams University Professor June Speakman noted as well that she viewed Cantor's loss was due to being out of touch with his constituents.
"How Cantor could not know that this wave was building against him is intriguing, and certainly a sign of taking things from granted, and being out of touch with his district," said Speakman.
"So, in my view, this situation is unique. Our Rhode Island delegation, all four of them, pay very close attention to their constituents, and have very talented campaign staff who would certainly pick up on the kind of dissatisfaction that arose with Cantor.
Speakman did however offer what she saw as a cautionary tale.
"One lesson for all Rhode Island candidates is to be very cautious about making decisions or drawing conclusions based on polling data, which were crazy wrong on this one," said Speakman.
Issue at Play in GOP Primary?
""Republican primary voters tossed out House Majority Leader Eric Cantor because they felt he was too close to President Obama. Does anyone believe they will be any less kind to Ken Block, who voted for Obama twice and supported Obamacare?” said Patrick Sweeney, campaign manager for the Fung for Governor campaign.
“Republicans want candidates like Mayor Allan Fung, who share their values and have a track record of winning elective office in a Democratic state. Further, grassroots republicans across the state are supporting the Mayor because of his conservative principles. Rhode Island Republicans just can’t trust Ken Block,” ended Sweeney.
The Block campaign fired back in turn.
"Insiders like Mayor Fung and his campaign may think these things are important . Ken is working hard on real change in RI," said Britt spokesperson Jeff Britt. "Testifying to abolish the master lever. Calling out the insider deal on 38 studios and demanding federal investigation. Talking to people all over the state about his "block plan" and his 321 way of applying the saving found to actually fix RI. We will let others talk about inside issues as with there very negative attacks it says more about the Mayor Fung and his campaign than it does about what RI voters care about."
As for the Rhode Island Congressional delegation, Rhode Island College Professor of Communications Val Endress thought the current officials would not face similar fates as Cantor.
"We have to remember that a single district in Virginia is not the bellwether for the nation. While it’s true that the Republicans are a divided party and the Tea Party has impacted unity, there’s no reason to believe that Cantor’s loss signals a sudden ideological shift. Most likely, Cantor’s loss says more about how he ran his campaign and how responsive he has been to his district," said Endress.
Endress continued, "Although public confidence in elected officials is low and has been for quite some time, the fact remains that incumbents are overwhelmingly re-elected. It’s true nationally, and it’s true for the state of Rhode Island. I expect that that tradition will continue for 2014."
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