Of Political Turning Points - Sunday Political Brunch March 4

Sunday, March 04, 2018


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Mark Curtis

Some of the most fascinating times in politics are when longstanding issues and viewpoints change. The liberal Senator Ted Kennedy (D-MA) once said of conservative Senator Storm Thurmond (R-SC), "If Strom Thurmond and I ever vote the same way on a bill, either one of us made a mistake, or it's an idea whose time has come." Let's "brunch" on some political turning points this week.

"Not 'Sticking to Your Guns'"- President Donald Trump departed with a lot of fellow Republicans this week when he indicated he could support some limited gun control measures. "We're going to do strong background checks. We're going to work on getting the age up to 21 instead of 18. We're getting rid of the bump stocks. And we're going to be focusing strongly on mental health," said President Trump, who promised to work with Democrats. To many on the GOP and NRA side, this is heresy. Yet, for Trump it's an option to be bipartisan and show that he owes no one in Washington, DC any favors. It's a fascinating turn of events, but not a guarantee any laws or policies will change.

"Who are the Change Agents?" -- As I said in last week's column, the change agents in the gun debate could be our youngest citizens (just as they were for marriage equality). Most of the students at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in South Florida, are on the verge of voting age. They and their cohorts from across the nation will march on Washington on March 24. Alphonso Calderon, a student an Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School, said of the recent fatal shootings there, and gun control, “Everybody needs to remember, we are just children. A lot of people think that disqualifies us from even having an opinion on this sort of matter…This matters to me more than anything else in my entire life." Will gun laws and policies change? This could be a turning point.

"Trump Trumps Trump" -- The President has other opportunities for turning points. For months I've said DACA was the likely place where he could work with Democrats and find a path to legal status for immigrants brought be illegally as children by their parents. I ultimately believe he will accomplish that, but for now it's on the back-burner. Trump had great victories with a Supreme Court nominee and a tax reform bill, but those were solely done with GOP support. Much of his future success may be based on how well he can work with the other side of the aisle.

"LBJ and Civil Rights" -- In my opinion, President John Kennedy and Senator Robert Kennedy get more of the credit then they really deserve for passage of major civil rights legislation. To be sure, they were key players, but the guy who often got the ball across the goal line was President Lyndon Johnson. As a Texan, Johnson was able to persuade other southern Democratic Senators to change their views on civil rights. It's hard to imagine liberals from Massachusetts having that same clout.

"Losing Hope" -- President Trump had a personal turning point this week, when White House Communications Director Hope Hicks resigned. Hicks was a personal friend of Trump's daughter Ivanka, who then became a close campaign confidant to Trump, and continued that role in the White House. Many Presidents choose personal friends to be advisors, in addition to adding seasons Washington pros. But Hicks was entangled in some of the Russia investigation and in the controversy and resignation of her former boyfriend, White House Secretary Rob Porter. It's tough when a President and close friend must part ways. I think of President Clinton and his life-long friend Mack McClarty, who did not work out well as White House Chief of Staff.

"Aid for AIDS" -- One of the big successes for President George W. Bush was providing billons in foreign relief for AIDS victims and prevention efforts in Africa. Bush saw AIDS - not only as a health issue - but a national security issue as well. If countries in Africa decimated by AIDS weakened and fell into the hands of Al-Qaeda or its sympathizers, then our enemies could establish a growing base. Fighting AIDS overseas was smart. Former President Bill Clinton once said that he wished he could have done as much for AIDS in Africa, as his successor did.

"Labor Pains" -- I've been covering one of the biggest stories in the nation this week, the statewide teacher strike in West Virginia, where classrooms have been idled in all 55 counties. Pay and health insurance benefits are the big issues. Organized labor in the Mountain State has taken big hits the last two election cycles. A Right-to-Work law was passed, and the prevailing wage for union workers was abolished. Many labor-backed candidates lost. But now, the teachers and their supporters are emboldened. They've been on strike for seven school days, with no end in sight. They've already secured a five-percent pay raise in the House of Delegates, which is supported by Governor Jim Justice. This could be huge turning point for organized labor, if the State Senate goes along.

"Obama in History" - Perhaps the greatest accomplishment of President Barack Obama's terms in the fact that he was the first African-American sent to the White House. Forty years ago, that would have been unthinkable. But his election showed the country had changed in many ways. First, states such as California have minority-majority populations. That means minorities - in total from all group - now outnumber the Caucasian population. That shifts the power base. The other intriguing thing about the Obama election is that more white Americans voted for Obama in 2008, than voted for Democratic nominees Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004. Again, it's a significant power shift, and a huge change in viewpoints about race.

Do you have a favorite or memorable political turning point in your life? Please click the comment button at www.MarkCurtisMedia.com.

Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is a nationally known political reporter, analyst and author based in West Virginia


Related Slideshow: GoLocal: Benchmark Poll, October 2017

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Sponsor: GoLocalProv

Sample: N=403

Rhode Island General Election Voters Margin of Error: +/- 4.9% at 95% Confidence Level

Interviewing Period: October 9-11, 2017

Mode: Landline (61%) and Mobile (39%)

Telephone Directed by: John Della Volpe, SocialSphere, Inc.

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Are you registered to vote at this address?

Yes: 100%

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When it comes to voting, do you consider yourself to be affiliated with the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, Moderate, or Unaffiliated with a major party?

Unaffiliated: 49%

Democrat: 32%

Republican: 15%

Moderate: .4%

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Next year, in November of 2018, there will be a statewide general election for Governor and many other state offices. How likely is it that you will vote in this election?

Will you definitely be voting, will you probably be voting, are you 50-50...

Definitely be voting: 78%

Probably be voting: 13%

50-50: 9%

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In general, would you say things in Rhode Island are headed in the right direction or are they off on the wrong track?

Right track: 39%

Wrong track: 45%

Mixed: 10%

Don't know/Refused: .6%

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What would you say is the number one problem facing Rhode Island that you would like the Governor to address?

Jobs and economy:  21%

Education: 12%

Taxes: 12%

Roads: 12%

State budget: 9%

Corruption/Public integrity: .8%

Healthcare: 3%

Governor: 3%

Homelessness: 2%

Immigration: 2%

Other: 7%

Don’t know: .9%

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Over the past three years or so, would you say the economy in Rhode Island has improved, gotten worse, or not changed at all?

Changed for the better: 35%

Changed for the worse: 16%

Not changed at all: 43%

Don't know/Refused: 5%

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Over the same time, has your family's financial situation improved, gotten worse, or not changed at all?

Changed for the better: 26%

Changed for the worse: 19%

Not changed at all: 54%

Don't know/Refused: 1%

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Recently, a proposal has been made to permit the issuance of $81 million in bonds by the State to build a new stadium for the Pawtucket Red Sox. If there was an election today on this issue, would you vote to approve or reject issuing $81 million in financing supported moral obligation bonds to build the stadium?

Net: Approve: 28%

Definitely approve: 15%

Probably approve: 14%

Net: Reject: 67%

Probably reject: 19%

Definitely reject: 48%

Don't know: 4%

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Could you please tell me your age?

18-24: 7%

25-34: 15%

35-44: 15%

45-54: 20%

55-64: 17%

65+: 25%

Don't know/refused: 1%

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What was the last grade you completed in school?

0-11: 2%

High school grad: 16%

Technical/Vocational school: 1%

Some college: 23%

College grad: 34%

Graduate degree: 24%

Don't know/refused: 1%

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The next question is about the total income of YOUR HOUSEHOLD for the PAST 12 MONTHS. Please include your income PLUS the income of all members living in your household (including cohabiting partners and armed forces members living at home).

$50,000 or less: 27%

More $50,000 but less than $75,000: 13%

More $75,000 but less than $100,000: 13%

More $100,000 but less than $150,000: 17%

$150,000 or more: 13%

Don't know/refused: 17%

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What particular ethnic group or nationality - such as English, French, Italian, Irish, Latino, Jewish, African American, and so forth - do you consider yourself a part of or feel closest to?

American/None: 21%

English: 13%

Italian: 13%

Irish: 12%

Black or African American: 6%

Latino/Hispanic: 6%

French: 6%

Portuguese: 3%

Jewish: 3%

German: 1%

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Would you say that Donald Trump has done an excellent good, fair or poor job as President?

Excellent: 13%
Good: 12%
Fair: 14%
Poor: 57%
Never heard of:  0%
Cannot rate: 3%

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Would you say that Jack Reed has done an excellent good, fair or poor job as a United States Senator?

Excellent: 22%
Good: 29%
Fair: 23%
Poor: 15%
Never heard of: 6%
Cannot rate: 6%

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Would you say that Sheldon Whitehouse has done an excellent good, fair or poor job as a United States Senator?

Excellent: 17%
Good: 22%
Fair: 21%
Poor: 28%
Never heard of: 6%
Cannot rate: 7%

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Would you say that David Cicilline has done an excellent good, fair or poor job as a Member of Congress?

Excellent: 9%
Good: 29%
Fair: 21%
Poor: 27%
Never heard of: 6%
Cannot rate:  8%

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Would you say that James Langevin has done an excellent good, fair or poor job as a Member of Congress?

Excellent: 7%
Good: 30%
Fair: 20%
Poor: 18%
Never heard of: 13%
Cannot rate: 11%

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Would you say that Gina Raimondo has done an excellent good, fair or poor job as Governor?

Excellent: 6%
Good: 28%
Fair: 30%
Poor: 31%
Never heard of: 1%
Cannot rate: 3%

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Would you say that Daniel McKee has done an excellent good, fair or poor job as Lieutenant Governor?

Excellent: 3%
Good: 16%
Fair: 21%
Poor: 8%
Never heard of: 26%
Cannot rate: 25%

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Would you say that Peter Kilmartin has done an excellent good, fair or poor job as Attorney General?

Excellent: 3%
Good: 20%
Fair: 28%
Poor: 17%
Never heard of: 13%
Cannot rate: 19%

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Would you say that Seth Magaziner has done an excellent good, fair or poor job as General Treasurer?

Excellent: 4%
Good: 18%
Fair: 24%
Poor: 13%
Never heard of: 21%
Cannot rate: 21%

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Would you say that Nellie Gorbea has done an excellent good, fair or poor job as Secretary of State?

Excellent: 5%
Good: 21%
Fair: 21%
Poor: 10%
Never heard of: 20%
Cannot rate: 23%

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Would you say that Jorge Elorza has done an excellent good, fair or poor job as Mayor of Providence?

Excellent: 4%
Good: 24%
Fair: 24%
Poor: 22%
Never heard of: 9%
Cannot rate: 15%


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