New Poll on RI's Governor’s Race Turns Race Upside Down

New Poll on RI's Governor’s Race Turns Race Upside Down

A poll released by independent Ken Block’s campaign appears to reset the governor’s race and shows him in one series of findings tied with Helena Foulkes and beating Dan McKee in potential November election matchups.

Block’s polling firm, Opinion Diagnostics, writes in its analysis, “Ken Block doesn’t just have a path to winning the November gubernatorial election; he has a runway. By September 8, Block will have significantly raised his profile with voters, who tend to view him favorably once they know him, and who are inclined to believe Block can solve the pressing issues facing the Ocean State.”

“If incumbent Governor McKee survives his primary, Block ought to be regarded as the frontrunner. If Foulkes defeats McKee, Block would face off against her in a highly competitive race in which he will start with a more positive favorability rating, better positioning on key issues, and a pathway to gain ground among undecideds and Guckian supporters,” adds Opinion Diagnostics.

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Opinion Diagnostics founder, Brian Wynne, has previously polled and/or worked for high-profile Republicans like former Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, and the Presidential candidate Mitt Romney.

The survey was conducted April 13-16, 2026. Potential respondents were randomly selected from a database of Rhode Island voters and contacted via either a live-operator phone call or an SMS message that led to a web-based survey.

Block is the only gubernatorial candidate to publicly release polling data. 

Rhode Islanders are clearly open to an independent candidate who prioritizes competence and results over party politics," said Block in a statement. "Leading this race before we've had the chance to fully introduce our message to voters across the state tells us there is a real appetite for change — and we intend to earn every vote."

 

Initial Ballot Test:

Some of the findings, according to Block's research firm, are:

FAVORABILITY:

• Ken Block has a +10% favorable rating, the only candidate who is viewed more positively than negatively. There is room to grow, as 54% of voters have yet to form an opinion of Block.
• McKee’s favorability rating is abysmal at -33%. No demographic subgroups, even registered Democrats (-7%), have a net-favorable opinion of McKee.
• Foulkes’ net-favorability rating is -3%. Her favorability rating is only +6% among registered Democrats, revealing a pre-existing group of Democrats who hold unfavorable opinions of her.

• Guckian is nearly unknown, with 74% of voters having no opinion or never having heard of him. Voters who do know him view him unfavorably by a net -3%.

   

According to the research, those participating in the survey were offered a ballot test:

Two hypothetical matchups were tested: McKee vs. Guckian vs. Block, in the event that McKee survives the September 8 primary, and Foulkes vs. Guckian vs. Block, in the event she prevails over McKee. Each matchup identified the party affiliation of each candidate. The relevant Democrat and Guckian were randomized in the first or second position with Block appearing third to mimic the order candidates will appear on the ballot in November (the draw of which party appears first on the November ballot is expected to occur in July).

 

Then, participants were provided: "with three pieces of information about Ken Block: 1) Why an independent like Block would be best positioned to address issues that partisan politicians have failed to fix, 2) Block’s experience as an outsider with a past history and future ability to expose and fix waste in government, and 3) Block’s track record as a successful business executive, positioning himself to address issues like the Washington Bridge failure and the issues with Rhode Island’s payroll processor. Each piece of information was portrayed as a campaign message from Block’s supporters, not as a hard fact that respondents should necessarily accept at face value."

 

According to the firm:

After hearing these statements, Block takes the lead in a matchup versus McKee and is tied in a matchup against Foulkes. In the post-message ballot test, Block leads both McKee/Foulkes and Guckian among independents, voters who live in Kent, Washington, Bristol, or Newport counties, and among voters over the age of 65.

Block trails Foulkes by only 8% in union households and 9% with nonwhite voters. Block and Foulkes are tied with women. These demographic groups tend to lean heavily towards Democratic candidates.

Voters who selected Aaron Guckian in both hypothetical matchups were asked whether they would definitely vote for him, or would switch to vote for an independent candidate if it appeared the independent had a better chance of defeating McKee or Foulkes. Only 42% of Republicans said they would definitely vote for the Republican in that scenario. As Block continues to gain traction, he is well-positioned to increase his vote share among Republicans.

 

McKee and Foulkes Fatigue?

The poll further exposes that, despite Foulkes and McKee’s high name recognition, neither is particularly popular with Rhode Island voters.

For the past five-plus years, Governor Dan McKee and former CVS President Helena Foulkes have been locked in nearly non-stop campaign mode.

In 2022, McKee beat Foulkes in the Democratic primary by less than 4,000 votes (32.8% to 29.9%). There were three other candidates.

Since that race, the two have been sniping at each other, and neither has proven popular in recent independent polling. McKee has been plagued by a number of controversies, none bigger than the failure of the Washington Bridge and his allegiances to the Rhode Island Department of Transportation, Director Peter Alviti, who finally left in February.

And a series of stories by GoLocal before the 2022 election about Foulkes and CVS’s role in the opioid crisis exposed a number of false statements. And in 2023, a GoLocal series looked at Foulkes role as the chair of her uncle’s Dodd Center, which was funded by the Sackler family and whose board included not only members of the Sackler family but also a Purdue Pharma lobbyist and campaign donor to Foulkes. From 1999 to 2023, approximately 806,000 people died from an opioid overdose in the U.S.