Could Trump Win in Rhode Island?
Saturday, May 21, 2016
It seems impossible to even contemplate - the words can barely come out of one’s mouth, but is there a scenario in which Donald Trump could win Rhode Island in the November Presidential election?
No Republican Presidential candidate has won Rhode Island since 1984 when Ronald Reagan nearly ran the table across all 50 states in the U.S. and beat Walter Mondale 212,080 to 197,106 in Rhode Island.
Could 2016 be the year of a Trump victory?
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLASTThere has been a longstanding run of big Democratic wins since Reagan’s narrow 51 percent to Mondale's 48 percent victory.
But Rhode Island is a different place and a different shade of Democratic blue than it has been in the past.
Historically, Rhode Island was fertile Clinton country — always delivering big margins for both Bill and Hillary. Rhode Island was one of President Clinton’s highest margin of victory states, and Secretary Clinton crushed then-Senator Barack Obama 58.4 to 40.4 percent in 2008.
That was, however until 2016, when the Democratic machine stacked up behind front runner Clinton — Governor Gina Raimondo, all four members of the Congressional Delegation and both General Assembly leaders and Providence’s Mayor Jorge Elorza. There was just one problem. Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders beat Clinton 55% to 43%.
A decisive loss for Clinton and for the Democratic machine in Rhode Island
In contrast, Donald Trump rolled up huge numbers in Rhode Island, and like Sanders, shocked the political prognosticators and pollsters. Trump received over 39,000 votes in the recent Rhode Island Republican Presidential primary, just 13,000 less than Clinton got in the Democratic primary -- an unheard of level of support for the New York Business man.
“What the primary showed us is that Rhode Island, at least in this cycle, is no longer reliably "Clinton country," as it has been called for years. But does that mean that Trump can win here? Given Rhode Island voters strong, consistent preference for Democrats in the past fifty years, a Trump victory seems unlikely,” said June Speakman, Professor of Political Science, Roger Williams University.
Far more adamant was Darrell West, Vice President and Director of Governance at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C. and former head of the Taubman Center at Brown University, "There is virtually no way that Trump wins Rhode Island. It would take a national landslide for Trump and that is unlikely," said West. "I expect Rhode Island will be one of the top vote-getting states for Clinton.”
“I don't think the presidential campaign will be competitive in Rhode Island. Clinton runs well among women, immigrants and senior citizens. Those groups give her a big advantage in the Ocean State,” said West.
Frustration Factor
Certainly things change fast. It was just a couple of week’s ago that Trump was faced with the potential of an open and wild GOP Convention and Clinton looked to be rock solid. But Trump ran off a series of victories and his opponents bowed out and Sanders just won’t go away. The Sanders and Clinton campaign is getting more and more bitter by the moment.
The outcome has been shocking. This week a new national Fox News poll found Donald Trump holding a slight lead over Hillary Clinton -- 45% to 42% -- among registered voters.
But even a Washington-based GOP consultant doesn’t see a scenario for Trump in Rhode Island. John Goodwin, Vice President, The Herald Group, Washington, DC, told GoLocal, “While I do think there is a strong chance that Trump can flip some traditionally blue states red this Fall, including places like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan – Rhode Island will not be one of them.”
“Although Trump dominated the Rhode Island primary and can expect to receive a greater proportion of the vote than most GOP candidates in recent past, I don’t think he has a shot at beating whoever the Dem candidate ends up being this fall in the land of calamari. Rhode Island is the bluest of blue states – deep enough blue to be worn as a tuxedo. While Trump’s rally in Warwick was much more energetic than most GOP politicians could ever hope to accomplish here and Hillary’s national approval ratings are not the envy of anyone, the Democrat party machine is too powerful and RI voters are too entrenched in voting for Democrats – especially in a Presidential election,” said Goodwin.
But the lingering frustration of Rhode Island voters is immense. And will the bitter Clinton-Sanders battle leave lasting scars? “The question is, what will the 66,720 Sanders voters do, assuming that Clinton is the eventual Democratic nominee? That is one of the great unknowns of the general election campaign. It's difficult to imagine that many of them with move to Trump, easier to imagine that many of them will stay home. It then becomes the Clinton campaign's job, in Rhode Island and elsewhere, to persuade Sanders' supporters to come out and vote for Clinton. At this moment, in this week, that looks like a hard sell, but a lot can change in the course of the general election campaign,” said Speakman.
Negatives v Negatives
This week’s NBC/Wall Street Journal poll unveils that both Clinton and Trump have record negatives. Clinton’s is net negative 24 percent and Trump’s is 41 percent net negative. In contrast, at this same time during the financial melt down of the US economy, Obama was 7 percent net positive and GOP candidate John McCain was 10 percent net positive.
Valerie Endress, Professor of Communications at Rhode Island College, flagged this as a wildcard. “No two major party candidates have ever entered into the general election with higher negatives and nearly 100 percent name recognition than Clinton and Trump. This is unprecedented in contemporary history, creates problems for both candidates, and makes the presidential election all the more unpredictable," said Endress. "Ordinarily candidates raise their favorability ratings in the general election through the use of affirmation strategies designed to create a positive image for those of the electorate who know little about the candidate. These strategies work especially well for major-party candidates who still remain relatively unknown just prior to summer convention, such as Barack Obama or Jimmy Carter."
The Trump Scenario in RI
In the 2012 Presidential Election, approximately 450,000 people voted for President in Rhode Island. Obama received 279,677 votes (62.7%) and Mitt Romney collected 157,702 (35.2%) and some third party candidates collected a few thousand votes.
So is there is a scenario in which Sanders voters move (to stay home or some vote anti-Hillary), fewer Democrats go for Clinton in totality and dissatisfied voters come out at a higher percentage than expected? De facto, it will take a recalibration of 70,000 votes from the Democratic column and over to the Trump vote.
In what is already the most negative campaign and is only becoming more intense and more personal, Endress said, “The last person standing is likely to be the one who survives the attacks, rather than the one who has gained the trust and support of the electorate. This makes each candidate all the more vulnerable to the "October surprise," in which candidates often save their strongest attacks for the height of the campaign season and in the middle of the presidential debate series. With the growing presence of super-PACS, you're likely to see the strongest hits coming from outside groups. In such an atmosphere, it is very difficult to predict which candidate will be the last person standing.”
Related Slideshow: Trump Rally in Warwick Rhode Island, April, 2016
Photography by Richard McCaffrey