Why Even Vaccinated Rhode Islanders Should Be Careful Right Now

Monday, July 26, 2021

Nick Landekic, Guest MINDSETTER™

 

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PHOTO: GoLocal

The surge of the Delta variant is being widely reported in the news, and is a major public health danger at over 83% of COVID cases in this country. There has also been a great deal of sometimes confusing discussion and even contradictory guidance as to what to do, and in particular for vaccinated vs. unvaccinated individuals.

We all want life to ‘go back to normal’, but right now there are a number of compelling reasons why even vaccinated Rhode Islanders should be careful.

 

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1. The Delta variant changes everything.

The Delta (also called B.1.617.2) variant is different and more dangerous than both the original SARS-CoV-2 strain and other variants that came before. It is more easily transmitted, causes more serious illness, and is partially resistant to vaccines.

Delta can create over 1,000 times more copies of itself and more quickly in your body than earlier strains. The risk of being hospitalized is double with Delta compared with other strains.

Dr. Rochelle Walensky, Director of the Centers for Disease Control, said of Delta “It is one of the most infectious respiratory viruses we know of”.

Delta is so highly contagious there are reports from Australia of infection being spread in very brief contacts between people after only 5 to 10 seconds. This is  different and more dangerous than previous strains of the virus. People have become infected from a stranger walking past them for just a few seconds.

The risks presented by Delta are more serious than we faced before. It changes the rules, and how we must respond to it in order to stay safe.

 

2. The vaccines are very effective, but are not a magic shield.

The world is very lucky that the first COVID vaccines work, and work so very well. But they are not some kind of impenetrable ‘force field’ that completely repels the virus from the body.

Vaccines are designed to reduce or prevent illness, not to totally eliminate the chance of infection. Even after vaccination, the SARS-CoV-2 virus can still enter and infect your body. The vaccines do their job by keeping you from getting sick, or at least preventing severe illness or death. They do a phenomenally good job of that against the original strain and even more virulent variants like Alpha (B.1.1.7) that became predominant in Rhode Island earlier this year. But they are not perfect.

Recent reports on the Pfizer vaccine show it to be robustly effective in protecting against hospitalization (88%) and severe illness (91%) from the Delta variant, but only 39% effective in preventing infection and 41% effective in protecting against symptomatic illness.

This means that even if you are vaccinated, while you are unlikely to become severely ill or die from Delta, you may be more likely than not to become infected and have symptomatic illness.

Antibody levels in vaccinated individuals decline over time, thus the more time that has passed since vaccination, the more careful we may need to be until we are able to receive booster shots.

 

3. Vaccinated individuals can still infect other people.

Studies have demonstrated that the COVID vaccines significantly reduce transmission of the virus by about 40%-60%.

If you are vaccinated, you are half as likely to transmit the virus and infect others. That is substantial and very important, but it is not absolute. The virus infects the nose, and some can still be there even in vaccinated individuals to then transmit to others, albeit at reduced rates, risk, and for shorter lengths of time.

Every infected person not only risks their own life and others they infect, but also becomes a mutation factory that can create the next variant. Everyone benefits from reducing the spread of infection.

 

4. Vaccinated people are still at risk of long COVID.

If you are vaccinated and become infected with Delta, while you will most likely have mild or even no symptoms, you could still be at risk of long COVID health problems.

A recent study found there can be more than 200 health problems associated with long COVID, including fatigue, cognitive impairment (“brain fog”), sexual dysfunction, heart rhythm disturbances, bladder control issues, shingles, memory loss, blurred vision, diarrhea, hallucinations, tremors, hearing problems, impairments of sense of smell, changes to the menstrual cycle, and a great many others. Being burdened with health issues like these potentially for years or even the rest of your life would not be fun. ‘Surviving’ COVID doesn’t mean you would come through unharmed.

Studies have shown that people who had mild infections or even no symptoms at all with the original SARS-CoV-2 strain can still have significant long COVID health problems. The danger from Delta is likely to be the same and it would be risky to assume otherwise.

 

5. The level of infection in Rhode Island is very high.

Rhode Island is one of 12 states with a “Very High” COVID danger level, as determined by covidactnow.org, the collaboration between the Harvard Global Health Institute, Stanford University, and Georgetown University.

New COVID cases are up over 600% since the beginning of July, from about 10 to over 60 new cases per day (7-day average). Some days in the past week have reported over 100 new cases.

Rhode Island once again has the highest infection rate in the northeast. The actual infection rate could be in the range of 150-200/100,000/week, which is far too high for safe interactions with groups of unmasked people.

Rhode Island has done well with vaccinations, but otherwise has a poor track record of managing the pandemic. Don’t wait for things to get so bad again that they’re unmanageable.

Cases in Rhode Island are continuing to increase. The problem with exponential growth is that it looks like nothing at the beginning, then suddenly skyrockets out of control. It was only a few short months ago that Rhode Island was the most infected place in the entire world. We must be careful if we want to avoid a repeat of that disastrous and deadly time. Wearing masks indoors can give an extra layer of protection even to the vaccinated at a time like this when we are battling the Delta variant.

 

6. Masks really do work, and very well.

The scientific data are clear and the evidence is overwhelming: masks significantly reduce the risk of both getting infected yourself, and of infecting others.

Masks have been used and effective in both reducing spread of infection and protecting wearers since the 14th century. It’s not rocket science: breathing through a filter can reduce transmission and infection from airborne viruses by blocking them.  

Masking can be 79% effective in reducing infection, comparable to what some vaccines achieve. The combination of both vaccination and mask-wearing can be powerful.

“I think we’ve let down our guard too quickly. The CDC’s guidance was that vaccinated people can remove their masks indoors. But with no way to verify that, it pretty much gave permission for everyone to take their masks off indoors, so that means you have a good number of unvaccinated people unmasked in these spaces where SARS-CoV-2 spreads incredibly efficiently”, said Dr. Dominique Heinke, an epidemiologist at the Massachusetts Department of Public Health.

National Nurses United has called for a return to wearing masks indoors. A number of cities and areas are now bringing back mask requirements indoors even for vaccinated people, including Los Angeles, Philadelphia, and Atlanta.

Since Delta creates over 1,000 times more virions in your body than other strains, mask-wearing is now more important. A N95 or comparable HEPA or other filter mask could both protect you from infection, and save the lives of others.

Rhode Island’s own renowned Dr. Michael Fine, former state medical director, has recently advised wearing masks indoors. Last month the World Health Organization also urged vaccinated people to keep wearing masks indoors.

Don’t wait for infection rates to reach catastrophic levels, or for you to get infected, or for guidance from Rhode Island’s government that may never come. Anyone can choose to wear a mask any time, and protect both themselves and others in the process.

Dying of COVID or dealing with long-term health problems are probably much more inconvenient and uncomfortable than sometimes wearing a mask.

 

7. It’s not over yet.

We are all tired of the pandemic, and desperately want it to be over. Despite everyone’s ‘precaution exhaustion’, the virus is not done with us, and life will never ‘go back to the way things were before’.

At times when facing a much more powerful foe like the Delta variant, vaccination alone might not be enough. Cape Cod and Provincetown Massachusetts are sobering witness for the need to make adjustments and take extra precautions.

Provincetown is one of the most highly vaccinated communities in the country. Even that wasn’t enough to shield against the Delta variant. In recent weeks and during July 4th celebrations people let down their guard, forgot about masks and social distancing, and now are suffering through a calamitous increase in infections.

It’s not yet time to ‘learn to live with the virus’. The war is still ongoing. Denials and pretending are no match for the Delta variant, and only lead to infections and deaths. Many states are learning this painful lesson with a devastating rise in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, including Louisiana, Arkansas, South Carolina, Alabama, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri, and especially, Florida.

Florida is an excruciating warning of what happens if people ignore the realities of the Delta variant and try to live as if nothing is amiss. Florida leads the country in new infections, with 20% of all new COVID cases in the past week. Deaths are soaring, and hospitals are reporting more patients than ever before in the pandemic.

“The people that are getting sick are unvaccinated and are getting sick very fast, likely because of the Delta variant. We were not seeing this in any of the other waves of the pandemic”, said Dr. Lilian Abbo, Chief of Infectious Diseases at Jackson Health System in Miami.

The number of new cases has spiked 12-fold in just the past three weeks, and shows no signs of slowing down – because precautions are not being taken. A great many people are unnecessarily getting sick, and dying.

There is no way to completely avoid all consequences of something as formidable as the Delta variant. People and states that respect the virus and respond sensibly, such as Vermont, will get through this ordeal with the least pain.

It’s really not that complicated. Get vaccinated. Wear masks indoors. Consider carefully if you need to travel or be in places where numbers of unmasked people gather.

Surviving means adapting to reality, not ignoring it. Even adamantly denying COVID, vaccines, and masks doesn’t mean the virus will spare you, and won’t infect or kill you.

Nick Landekic is a retired scientist and biotechnology executive with over 35 years of experience in the pharmaceutical industry.

 

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