Rob Horowitz: The Santorum Moment
Tuesday, January 03, 2012
As we await the results of the Iowa Caucus this evening, former US Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) is finally having his moment. If effort and persistence count for anything, it is well-earned. In the final Des Moines Register Poll released on Sunday, Santorum moved into third place behind Romney and Paul with Santorum neck and neck with the two leaders in the final two days of polling.
Santorum is moving at just the right time--just as the votes are cast and before he is subject to the withering media scrutiny that has resulted in the precipitous falls of the other Republican candidates who have emerged to challenge Mitt Romney’s tenuous front-runner status. He is the main beneficiary of the negative barrage of advertisements that have contributed greatly to Newt Gingrich’s free fall in Iowa. Nearly one in two campaign ads running in Iowa is an attack on Gingrich, most coming from a well-funded Romney super PAC.
The challenge for Santorum, assuming he does as well tonight as expected, is whether he can use this moment to turn a strong performance in the Caucus into a viable challenge for the nomination in what is likely to be an extended and expensive fight.
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLASTAs a strong social conservative, Santorum is well-positioned to rack up votes in Iowa, where Evangelical Christians play an out-sized role in the nominating process. Further, Iowa's small size allowed the cash-starved Santorum to wage a successful grassroots campaign in which he visited every county. As we move to bigger states and multiple contests, this kind of retail campaigning is no longer possible and as a result television commercials play a much larger role. It will be interesting to see whether Santorum is able to turn Iowa success into campaign cash.
Further, Santorum’s record will now be subject to serious examination by the national media as well as to attacks by opponents. While he did fairly well in an appearance this past Sunday on Meet the Press, he still answers questions more like the legislator he was than a Presidential candidate. While he has dramatically improved since the beginning of the campaign when he appeared stiff and relatively humorless, his public communication needs to become crisper.
And as a two-term Senator from a Democratic state, Santorum cast many votes and made statements that do not meet the conservative orthodoxy of today’s Tea Party-influenced Republican Party. These will now all be fair game for the media and for his opponents.
Santorum’s rabid opposition to gay marriage and hard-edged positions on other social issues may also serve as a double-edged sword. While it is a plus for important parts of the Republican electorate, it may raise questions about his electability in the fall. For example, Senator Santorum aggressively led the fight for a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage resulting in a treasure trove of provocative quotes. In a year where Republicans want to keep the focus on the economy, a Santorum candidacy presents some real risks.
On the other hand, Santorum is not to be underestimated. He is a skilled and smart politician who won two statewide elections in a Democratic state, including defeating the incumbent, and not unpopular Democrat, Harris Wofford in 1994. Santorum is good at making the argument that traditional values and strong families are a key to economic success. He is also knowledgeable about foreign policy and unlikely to make the same kinds of mistakes that have haunted the candidacies of Bachmann, Perry and Cain.
It will be interesting to see if Santorum is going to make the most of his moment. Given his movement in Iowa, it is a moment that is likely to begin tonight after the results are in.
Rob Horowitz is a strategic and communications consultant who provides general consulting, public relations, direct mail services and polling for national and state issue organizations, various non-profits and elected officials and candidates. He is an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at the University of Rhode Island.
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