NFL Wild Card Weekend Preview
John Crowe, Sports Contributor
NFL Wild Card Weekend Preview
So now, instead of a week of rest and rehab, the Patriots have one of the toughest match-ups of the weekend as the Titans roll into town hell-bent on putting an end to the Patriots Dynasty in what could be quarterback Tom Brady’s final game in a Patriot uniform with his impending free agency just one loss away. And remember, the last time the Patriots played Wild Card Weekend, they lost to Baltimore, 33-14 in the 2009 playoffs.
Before we take a look at each game, ponder this. In the past four seasons, home teams are just 7-9 in the Wild Card round. That’s right, the higher-seeded team has lost more than it’s won in the first round the past four seasons. And, if you take out the 2016 playoffs in which the home teams went 4-0, visiting teams have been victorious a staggering 9 of those 12 games. So, beware Houston, New England, New Orleans, and Philadelphia. You may be playing in front of the home crowd, but it may not be as big an advantage as it appears.
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLASTCheck out our game-by-game preview below in our slideshow! Let us know what you think of our picks and previews with your own predictions in our comment section!
Odds courtesy of OddsShark.
#5 Bills at #4 Texans – Saturday 4:35 pm, ESPN/ABC – Texans favored by 2.5
The last time the Bills (10-6) won a playoff game was 1995. It’s Josh Allen’s first-ever playoff game. But, clearly, the Bills are the better defensive team, ranked third in the league vs. just 28th for Houston. If they can clamp down Carlos Hyde on the ground and force quarterback Deshaun Watson to find his playmaker DeAndre Hopkins while playing against Tre’Davious White, Buffalo could be in good shape. Forcing Kenny Stills and Will Fuller, if healthy, to beat them will be the Bills game plan. For better or worse, the Texans (10-6) will ride their stars in Watson and Hopkins on offense.
A key cog returns on defense as well as J.J. Watt will play for the first time since October’s torn pectoral muscle injury. How effective he is will go a long way in determining whether Houston advances or goes home. The Texans are 3-2 in playing in their familiar Saturday Wild Card spot, losing last season to the Colts, 21-7.
Buffalo will win if – Quarterback Josh Allen plays a turnover-free game.
Houston will win if – Running back Carlos Hyde runs for 100 yards.
Prediction: Texans 20-16
#6 Titans at #3 Patriots – Saturday 8:15 pm, CBS – Patriots favored by 5
If momentum is an indicator, the Titans have the edge. Tennessee (9-7) rolled over a Houston squad that was resting its starters in week 17 to clinch a playoff spot behind Derrick Henry’s 211 yards and 3 touchdowns. Meanwhile, the Patriots (12-4) were shocked by a then 4-win Dolphins team in Foxboro 27-24 as they saw a first-round bye slipped through their fingers. Simply put, it’s all about who dominates the line of scrimmage. Both teams will want to run the ball to set up the play-action-passing game which puts the ball squarely in Henry’s hands as the NFL’s top rusher.
Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill went 0-6 in Foxboro while with the Dolphins, throwing 10 interceptions in those games. Early on, it will be key for New England for Stephon Gilmore to return to playing as the league’s top cornerback in a match-up with rookie of the year candidate A.J. Brown and Corey Davis. In last season’s 34-10 rout over the Patriots, Davis caught seven passes for 125 yards and a touchdown.
Tennessee will win if – Derrick Henry carries the ball 25+ times for over 150 yards.
New England will win if – Phillip Dorsett and N’Keal Harry combine for more than 10 catches. The Patriots go better than 50% in the red zone.
Prediction: Patriots 24-20 (Heart over head maybe in this one!)
#6 Vikings at #3 Saints – Sunday 1 pm, FOX – Saints favored by 7.5
If there’s going to be a blowout this Wild Card Weekend, this could be it. The Saints (13-3) come in as heavy touchdown-plus favorites, yet have lost two of their last four home games (Atlanta, San Francisco). It’s simple. If the Vikings (10-6) can’t run the ball effectively, they’re chances of winning are slim. Running back Dalvin Cook returns after missing the past two games with a shoulder injury and is the key to Kirk Cousins’ effectiveness. Minnesota struggled to score only 10 points against the Packers and 19 vs. the Bears without Cook.
How huge is playing at home for the Saints? They’re 6-1 in the Drew Brees-Sean Payton era. Plus, remember the last time these two teams played in the playoffs? It was the Minnesota Miracle in which the Saints were on their way to the 2017 NFC Championship Game until Case Keenum’s miraculous touchdown to Stefon Diggs won the game for the Vikings. Revenge is certainly on the Saints’ minds.
Minnesota will win if – Dalvin Cook runs for 100 yards and Kirk Cousins throws for 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.
New Orleans will win if – The Saints win the turnover battle.
Prediction – Saints 35-20
#5 Seahawks at #4 Eagles – Sunday 4:40 pm – Seahawks favored by 2.5
Philly is the feel-good story of the 2019 NFL Playoffs. Devastated by injuries, the Eagles (9-7) are reprising their underdog role from just two years ago when they marched all the way to the Super Bowl with Nick Foles. This time, it’s Carson Wentz playing the hero, going 4-0 the past month while throwing for 7 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.
Miles Sanders ankle will probably make him a game-time decision, but backup Boston Scott has impressed, scoring three times in week 17 against the Giants to clinch a playoff spot for Philadelphia. For Seattle (11-5), it begins and ends with their run game. Without Chris Carson and C.J. Procise, that burden goes to Beast Mode, Marshawn Lynch, who’s in just his second game after retiring after the 2018 season.
Seattle will win if – Marshawn Lynch runs for 100 yards or more.
Philadelphia will win if – The Eagles defense holds Tyler Lockett under 100 yards.
Prediction – Seahawks 21-20
NFL Power Rankings - Wild Card Weekend - January 4, 2019
12.
Vikings (10-6, NFC Wild Card)
Losers of two in a row at home, the Vikings aren’t exactly headed into the playoffs feeling great about themselves. The good thing, however, is that they are healthier than they have been in recent weeks. Running back Dalvin Cook is back after a pair of weeks off with a shoulder injury. Wide receiver Adam Thielen’s hamstring has another week of rest.
The big reason why the Vikings sit at the bottom of our list this week is this – they have to go to New Orleans to play a Saints team that is rolling and has only lost one home game – that infamous NFC Championship “no-call” game to the Rams – in the Drew Brees/Sean Payton era. A tough road ahead indeed for Minnesota.
11.
Bills (10-6, AFC Wild Card)
Buffalo is tough. Buffalo can run the ball. Buffalo can play hard-nosed defense. The question is can they contain quarterback Deshaun Watson and wide receivers DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller (if he plays with a groin injury) and Kenny Stills in a high-pressure game.
Offensively, pressure will squarely go on the shoulders of quarterback Josh Allen playing in his first playoff game. If he can avoid pressure, scramble around to make plays, the Bills could pull off the upset. Allen’s taken care of the ball much better than earlier in the season, throwing only three interceptions in his past 12 games since turning it over three times against the Patriots in a September loss. Fumbles have been more of Allen’s concern, yet only three of his 14 have come in the past seven games.
10.
Titans (9-7, AFC Wild Card)
The Titans could make history this Saturday in Foxboro. With a victory, they could put an end to the Patriots Dynasty with the many looming changes coming for New England. Head coach Mike Vrabel and defensive coordinator Dean Pees are former Patriots and certainly have that institutional knowledge of their former team to make this a nip-and-tuck match-up. Plus, running back Derrick Henry comes in after his 211 yards, 3 touchdown performance that won him the NFL rushing title with 1,540 yards and a league-best 16 rushing touchdowns.
Add in former Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who knows the Patriots equally as well facing them twice a year for six years and who’s gone 7-3 after replacing Marcus Mariota as the team’s starting quarterback and the Titans are very dangerous. Tannehill’s thrown for 2,762 yards and 22 touchdowns with only 6 interceptions, forming a more wide-open offense with wide receivers A.J. Brown, Corey Davis and Adam Humphries, who could give the Patriots secondary fits with their speed, like the Dolphins Devonta Parker did last week to Stephon Gilmore.
Humphries was a target of the Patriots back in free agency before he picked Tennessee over New England.
9.
Texans (10-6, AFC South Champion)
Houston should get All-World defensive end J.J. Watt back for this Saturday’s Wild Card game vs. Buffalo. Watt’s been out since October with a torn pectoral muscle, but having him back in the lineup could be a force in containing Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen.
If the Texans are to advance into the Divisional Round, Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins will have to be the leaders through the air against a stingy Bills defense that’s third overall and fourth against the pass. Getting running back Carlos Hyde off to early success could help that play action passing game to get Hopkins, along with teammates Will Fuller (if he plays with a groin injury) and Kenny Stills.
8.
Eagles (9-7, NFC East Champion)
What can you say about this Eagles team? After a disastrous loss in Miami in week 13, all the banged-up Eagles have done is win despite being ravaged by injuries. Alshon Jeffery, Jordan Howard, Zach Ertz, Nelson Aghalor, Desean Jackson and now Miles Sanders have all missed time on offense, leaving quarterback Carson Wentz to shoulder the load. Sanders, with an ankle injury, is questionable to play this weekend in a rematch against Seattle, won earlier by the Seahawks, 17-9.
Philly could get cornerback Jalen Mills back for this one too, which would help in covering Seattle wideouts D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Clearly, the Eagles are home underdogs in this one, a position they’ve been before two seasons ago on their march to upsetting the Patriots in the Super Bowl. No doubt, the Eagles should be down at 11-12, but just for their resiliency, I’ve got them at #8! Don’t count these Eagles out. You may be sorry if you do.
7.
Patriots (12-4, AFC East Champion)
This clearly has not looked like a familiar 12-win Patriots team. Struggling to put up 30 points. Struggling to score touchdowns in the red zone. Struggling to find an identity is something New England is now familiar with the past 20 seasons. What this team is familiar with however, is putting the past aside and focusing on correcting a mistake. The mistake this time is wasting a chance at a first-round bye, now having to play a tough Tennessee team in the first round. The Patriots will clearly remember the 34-10 pasting the Titans put on them last season in Nashville. But, remembering is one thing, correcting is another. Look for the Pats defense to rebound for a bad second half vs. Miami. Can the Pats offense do the same, however? That answer will speak volumes in what could be Tom Brady’s last home game in Foxboro. If they can score 27, it could be enough.
If the Patriots are going to move on, quarterback Tom Brady will have to be sharper and more accurate than he was against Miami, throwing a pick-six touchdown to Eric Rowe in the loss. Running the ball, something New England has done well the past three weeks, would help. What would also help is if the number one ranked defense in the league plays up to that standard, something they did not do the second half against the Dolphins.
6.
Seahawks (11-5, NFC Wild Card)
One-yard short. One-yard is the difference between the Seahawks having to travel cross-country for a Sunday Wild Card game in Philadelphia and being home waiting for a Divisional Round foe as the #1 seed in the NFC. Yet, that’s Seattle’s fate when Jacob Hollister was wrapped up at the goal-line Sunday night against San Francisco.
The good news for the Seahawks is that they are the better team heading to Philly. Plus, running backs Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin, on fresh legs, have one more week of practice under their belts after returning to playing in week 17.
5.
Packers (13-3, NFC North Champion)
This is where we start what I call our “elite” section. Five teams that I think are well-suited to win it all in Miami. A first-round bye certainly helps Green Bay as they now have to win just one game, at home, to advance to the NFC Championship. It certainly didn’t look that was in week 17 as the Packers trailed the Lions the entire game, winning on last-second Mason Crosby field goal after rallying from a double-digit deficit in Detroit.
And that’s the rub with Green Bay. Sometimes they look phenomenal and yet other times, like week 17 in Detroit or in losses to the 49ers and Rams, they were never really in it. Quick starts will be a must against the upper echelon of the NFC the rest of the way.
4.
Chiefs (12-4, AFC West Champion)
Christmas was certainly good to the Chiefs. Not only are they rolling, having won six in a row, but the Dolphins gifted them a first-round bye with a surprise upset victory over the Patriots, handing KC the #2 seed in the AFC. So, now Kansas City sits back waiting its opponent for the Divisional Round on January 12th at 3pm. If the Patriots beat the Titans, it’ll be the Pats who come to town for an AFC Championship Game rematch.
And after beating New England in Foxboro already this season, the Chiefs will clearly be in favorite mode for that one, should it happen. And it’s not only on offense. The defense has only given up an average of 11.5 points per game in the past six games, tops in the league.
3.
Saints (13-3, NFC South Champion)
Why are the Saints so high despite not having a bye this weekend? Well, consider a couple of things. Alvin Kamara is suddenly looking like Alvin Kamara again. The past two weeks, Kamara has four touchdowns against the Titans and Panthers. That alone puts the Saints offense at elite status when you add it to a passing game led by Drew Brees to Michael Thomas.
Plus, the Saints drew the Vikings at home for Wild Card Weekend. It would be a shock to see them NOT playing in round 2. If the Saints win, they’ll head to either Green Bay or San Francisco next weekend in the Divisional Round.
2.
49ers (13-3, NFC West Champion)
Who saw this turnaround so quickly? Flash back one year ago, the Niners were a forgotten team with Jimmy Garoppolo down with a torn ACL. Now, after a revenge win in Seattle, the 49ers are the top seed in the NFC where the road to Miami has to go through them. A balanced offense, ranked fourth overall in the NFL, led by Garoppolo, tight end George Kittle, wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders through the air and the three-headed beast of Raheem Mostart,
Matt Breida and Tevin Coleman on the ground (144 yards per game) has given opposing defenses fits all season long. A week off to rest and an extra week to prepare for Kyle Shanahan could put San Francisco in prime position for a return to trip to playing another Super Bowl in Miami.
1.
Ravens (14-2, AFC South Champion)
Ponder this. With nothing to play for in week 17 against a Steelers team that needed to win to make the playoffs, the Ravens played their backups and dominated Pittsburgh. Lamar Jackson, Mark Ingram, Mark Andrews, Earl Thomas and others watched their teammates control a very good Steelers defense and limit a struggling Pittsburgh offense to a somewhat easy win.
The Ravens are the clear, number one favorites to represent the AFC in Miami. And why not! Until somehow shows they can slow down Jackson and that Ravens running game – averaging a whopping 206 yards a game – that’s not going to change. Keep an eye on Ingram’s injured calf however. They’ll need him to lead that run game, although Gus Edwards is a capable backup, as he showed against the Steelers.
