Sunday Political Brunch: The Senate Scramble - July 23, 2017

Sunday, July 23, 2017

 

View Larger +

Mark Curtis

The “Brunch” is on the road this weekend, as I visit my native state of Wisconsin. It is one of the 33 states where a U.S. Senator is up for reelection in 2018. As my faithful readers may recall, I was once a Legislative Aide for former U.S. Senator Herb Kohl (D-WI). Control of the U.S. Senate is in play in 2018, and the dynamics favor Republicans right now. Let’s “brunch” on that this week:

“By the Numbers” – As mentioned, 33 Senate seats are in play in 2018. Democrats are defending 23 of them; Republicans, just 10. That gives the GOP an immediate advantage. Making matters worse for the Democrats is that President Trump carried ten of the states where Democrats have Senate seats up for grabs. Right now, four Democratic Senate seats are listed as vulnerable, those being in West Virginia, Missouri, Indiana, and North Dakota. All four states went for Trump in 2016.

“Almost Heaven, West Virginia” – Right now this is shaping up as the marquee national Senate race in 2018. Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) has been in the Senate since 2010, having succeeded the nation’s longest-serving Senator, Robert C. Byrd (D-WV). Manchin – who was also Governor of West Virginia for six years - comes from a well-known political family. He may get lucky because of a hotly contested and potentially nasty Republican primary with Representative Evan Jenkins (R-WV, District 3) locked in a competitive primary with state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R-WV), who has been elected twice statewide.

GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLAST

“The Heidi Chronicles” – North Dakota had the closest race in the U.S. Senate in 2012. Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) beat Representative Rick Berg (R-ND) by fewer than three-thousand votes. They are likely poised for a rematch in 2018. Both are longtime state office holders in North Dakota, so this could be another bruising battle. Like Senator Manchin, Senator Heitkamp aligns with conservatives on fossil fuel issues such as oil and coal, which could help them both.

“Indiana Wants Me” – Vice President Mike Pence’s home state looks to be very competitive. Senator Joe Donnelly (D-IN) is finishing his freshman term in the Senate and, prior to that, spent six years in the U.S. House. Like Senator Heitkamp (D-ND), Donnelly won his Indiana Senate seat with barely 50 percent of the vote. Historically, the Hoosier State is “red,” but Barack Obama did carry it in 2008 (although he did not in 2012). The bottom line: Indiana is up for grabs next year.

“The Cheesehead State” – It’s good to be on my native soil. Wisconsin has one of the richest political histories in the nation, with such luminaries as Senator Joe McCarthy (R-WI) and the man who eventually succeeded him, my old friend Senator William Proxmire (D-WI), whom I consider the greatest retail politician in U.S. history. Someday, I’ll share that whole story. But first, Senator Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) - who succeeded my former boss Herb Kohl – is up this year, too. She served 14 years in the U.S. House before being promoted to the U.S. Senate. Despite Trump’s huge upset win in Wisconsin in 2016, Senator Baldwin may be hard to unseat.

“The Show Me State” – Of the four most vulnerable Senators, Senator Claire McCaskill (D-MO) is the only one not in her freshman term. She is completing her second full six-year term. Yet, she is vulnerable, Why? Well, Missouri is a key swing state, and the “Show Me” state has not been won by a Democratic Presidential candidate since President Bill Clinton in 1996. If the Russian controversy is trouble for President Trump, then it could prove toxic for Senator McCaskill, who earlier this year tweeted she never met with the Russian Ambassador, despite two tweets from 2013 and 2015 when she, in fact, confirmed meeting with him. No, it’s not a smoking gun, but ouch!

“Why All of This Matters” – Unlike all the contentious special elections to fill vacant House seats in 2017, the 2018 midterms will be a referendum on the Trump Presidency. Historically, the party-in-power in the White House usually loses seats in the midterm elections. Oddly, the GOP may lose House seats in 2018, but may gain four to eight seats in the U.S. Senate. If they gained eight, the Republicans would have the filibuster-proof 60-seat majority in the upper chamber. That’s huge. I don’t think they’ll get there, but a 57-43 Republican majority in the Senate is very possible.

Whom are you backing for U.S. Senator and what do you think the margin will be? Just click the comment button at www.MarkCurtisMedia.com.

 

Related Slideshow: RI Democrats React to Trump Withdrawing from Paris Climate Agreement

View Larger +
Prev Next

Gina Raimondo

RI Governor

I am deeply disappointed that the President has decided to withdraw the United States from the Paris Agreement. Republicans and Democrats alike recognize that the Paris Agreement is about so much more than climate change. It’s about opportunity, stewardship and America’s standing as a global leader. 

President Trump’s action will not deter Rhode Island from taking necessary steps to address climate change. Our action at the state level will create new jobs and attract new investment in the green economy. 

We’ve set a goal to secure 1,000 MW of clean energy resources and double the number of clean energy jobs by 2020. Ocean State families and businesses are on the front lines fighting climate change. I will continue toward with the General Assembly and partners in other states to protect our environment and advance clean energy alternatives, while creating new opportunities for our workforce in the process. 

View Larger +
Prev Next

Jim Langevin 

U.S. Congressman

President Trump’s ill-considered decision to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement puts the future of our entire planet at risk. The withdrawal represents an abandonment of pledges to protect our environment and risks undermining the entire accord, which includes nearly every country on earth. In addition, the President’s action cedes Unites States leadership and means losing a seat at the table to negotiate global agreements in our country's best interest.

The Obama Administration made significant progress toward slowing the rapidly warming climate by negotiating the Paris Climate Agreement to reduce greenhouse emissions on a global scale. Unwinding these commitments represents another assault by President Trump on the health of the public and the planet. His Administration continues to deny climate change despite the overwhelming scientific evidence that shows this is an ongoing human-caused crisis.

Rhode Island is on the front lines of sea level rise, and our citizens will ultimately pay the price for inaction today. Communities like my hometown of Warwick are particularly vulnerable to the storms and floods that come with climate change. Warming seas have chased our traditional catch out of our fisheries and threaten to decimate our beloved Ocean State coastline. Abandoning the Paris deal, the culmination of a multi-year effort by world leaders, is an abdication of our responsibility to leave the world a better place for our children.”

View Larger +
Prev Next

Sheldon Whitehouse

U.S. Senator

“Donald Trump and his children said just a few years ago that climate change was ‘irrefutable’ and its consequences ‘catastrophic and irreversible.’ They were right. There is no denying the growing threat of rising seas, warming global temperatures, and melting glaciers and ice sheets. 

But we can still avoid the worst if we quickly reduce carbon emissions. That is why ignoring reality and leaving the Paris Agreement could do down as one of the worst foreign policy blunders in our nation’s history, isolating the U.S. further after Trump’s shockingly bad European trip. 

Trump is betraying the country, in the service of Breitbart fake news, the shameless fossil fuel industry, and the Koch brothers’ climate denial operation. It’s Sad. 

America’s biggest corporations and investors urged the President to stick with international efforts to address the climate threat. They and all of us will now have to proceed with a seriousness of purpose commensurate with the threat, knowing of this President’s grave defects. 

If you haven’t joined an environmental group, join one. If your voice needs to be heard, get active. If you are a big corporation with good climate policies that has shied away from engaging politically, it’s time to engage. And if you’re a university that teaches climate science, it’s time to stand up for your scientists. Whoever you are, help end climate denial and take action.”

View Larger +
Prev Next

Jack Reed

U.S. Senator

“President Trump’s decision to abandon the Paris climate agreement is a blow to the environment that makes us a less secure nation. Our military, which spends every hour of every day thinking about how to protect Americans says climate change is a problem and a real threat multiplier. Indeed, climate change is an established part of the military’s threat and risk assessments.

The United States should continue to be a leader when it comes to protecting the planet; instead, the President is abdicating this responsibility. President Trump is unwisely putting the United States alongside Syria and Nicaragua in declining to be part of the Paris agreement. 

The American people deserve better.” 

View Larger +
Prev Next

David Cicilline

U.S. Congressman

The President’s decision to withdraw from the Paris Agreement is a terrible mistake. It will diminish American leadership in the world, undermine our ability to create good-paying jobs, and contribute to the further degradation of our environment. 

It is very disappointing that we now know, without question, that the President of the United Sates is a climate change denier. His decision today ignores the overwhelming scientific consensus regarding the serious consequences failing to address climate change. 

The only thing President Trump will accomplish by this decision is to set the United States and world back decades in this fight. I have no doubt that future generations are going to wonder what the hell we were thinking today”

 
 

Enjoy this post? Share it with others.

 
 

Sign Up for the Daily Eblast

I want to follow on Twitter

I want to Like on Facebook