Side of the Rhode: Who’s Hot and Who’s Not in RI Politics?

Friday, September 12, 2014

 

Every Friday, Russ Moore breaks down who's rising and who's falling in the world of Rhode Island politics. Check out who made the lists this week.

HOT

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Gina Raimondo: The Democrat State Treasurer ran a fantastic campaign and cruised to victory in the Democratic Primary for Governor thanks to a little help from her...enemies. All kidding aside, while it helped that the public sector unions were split among her rivals, there's no taking anything away from the charismatic Rhodes Scholar, who moves to the general election as the favorite.

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Allan Fung: When all was said and done, and there was plenty said, Fung was able to survive several campaign setbacks and score a convincing victory over his Republican opponent in the Gubernatorial Primary. Funding may be an issue, but the Republican nominee always has a puncher's chance in the race for Governor.

Nellie Gorbea: The former Deputy Secretary of State scored a shocking upset in the Democratic Primary for Secretary of State, despite being severely outspent and receiving far fewer endorsements from unions and business leaders. Now she moves on to the general election where she'll be a heavy favorite.

20%: Roughly 20 percent of the electorate who could vote in the primary turned out to vote on Tuesday. That's not an earth shattering number, but it represents progress given the historically low turnout in primary elections.

Jorge Elorza: The law professor and former Housing Court Judge prevailed against City Council President Michael Solomon despite allegations of plagiarism and the revelation of a shoplifting conviction from when he was 18, not to mention being severely outspent. What's more, Elorza prevailed despite losing Providence's South Side. It was all about the East Side turnout.

Dan McKee: Like Gorbea, McKee pulled off a surprising victory in the Democratic Primary for Lieutenant Governor. McKee's victory was buttressed by Warwick State Representative Frank Ferri's entry into the race, as he siphoned off "progressive" votes that would've gone to Mollis.

NOT

Robert Walsh Jr.: The cerebral Executive Director of the Rhode Island National Education Association out-thought himself this time by supporting Clay Pell's bid for Governor. In throwing the weight of the powerful teachers union behind Pell, he took away votes that would've likely gone to Taveras. Hopefully he enjoys the fruit basket Raimondo will be sending him to thank him for her victory.

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The Democratic Party: The Democratic Party has some soul searching to do. Every single endorsed state-wide candidate in the primary suffered defeat on what was a brutal day for the establishment.

Progressives: With the exception of Jorge Elorza, the progressives in Rhode Island didn't have a very good day on Tuesday. On the top of the Democratic ticket is Gina Raimondo, who is known for pension reform, and the party's Lieutenant Governor candidate is Dan McKee, the state's champion of charter schools. Further, state representative and progressive hero Maria Cimini also suffered defeat.

David Cicilline: It may be a surprise to some to see the Congressman on this list after having won by a 25 point margin. But given that fact that his opponent, Matt Fecteau spent just $5,000 and managed to pull in almost 40 percent of the vote, Cicilline's support doesnt' seem as strong as it did two years ago, when he beat a much better financed candidate in Anthony Gemma by a larger margin.

Clay Pell: Money can cure many ills in politics. But internal polls from the gubernatorial campaigns had Pell polling at about 17 percent in March. He went on to spend $3.4 million dollars and only bumped up his final tally by an additional 10 percent. Yikes!

Guillaume De Ramel: De Ramel loaned himsef and spent roughly $900,000 in his bid to become the Rhode Island's next Secretary of State. He had a broad coalition of union and business leaders, yet still managed to come up short in the election. Let De Ramel's tale be a warning against playing strictly an inside game while ignoring Joe and Jane Six Pack.

 

Related Slideshow: Winners and Losers on Primary Day

The 2014 Rhode Island primaries has upsets and delivered a number of winners and losers. Take a look.

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LOSER

LOSERS: Millionaire Newport Blue Bloods

Despite combining to spend nearly $5 million dollars - both Clay Pell and Guillaume de Ramel finished poorly. Pell was suppose to be coming on fast and might even take the Democratic nomination, but reality was that Pell finished in 3rd and 15% behind the leader in a three-way race.

Pell spent more than $106 of his own money per vote (the final numbers are not in). de Ramel was leading the race by more than double digits with a couple of weeks to go, but was beat by the under funded Nellie Gorbea.

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WINNER

WINNER: Dan McKee

The Cumberland Mayor has been a champion of education reform. He ran on a record of school reform and even attracted out-of-state dollars from major proponents of education reform.

McKee's win was a blow to teachers unions that ran an anyone but McKee campaign. McKee will now face GOP candidate Catherine Taylor who was hoping for a rematch from 4-years earlier with Ralph Mollis (she challenged Mollis in the 2010 Sec of State race).

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LOSER

LOSER:  Bob Walsh, Head of NEA

The Teacher's Union Boss bet big and paid the ultimate price.  Walsh was so angry at the antics of Gina Raimondo and how much the teachers paid in pension reform, he went all in and created Clay Pell.

The bad news is that Walsh's bet on Pell split the Democratic base. Progressives and traditional union voters went any where but with 
Raimondo and kept the base under 50%. Outcome: Raimondo the winner and Walsh the loser.

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LOSER

LOSER: Hackers

GoLocalProv got hit earlier in the week by a Malware attack.  Many media companies have been hit by hackers including:The New York Times, CNN and the Boston Globe. It was fixed quickly but the clean up is time consuming and expensive for a small company.

GoLocal was still first to call the Democratic race for Governor, Lt. Governor and Secretary of State. Kudos to the news team. Note, WJAR called the Providence Mayor's race first.

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LOSER

LOSER: Democratic Pollster Fleming/WPRI

The Democratic pollster produced the only public bellwether political poll in RI in late August. His poll missed badly. Raimondo won by a far larger margin than he predicted and two of the other three races he polled he got just plain wrong.

Fleming/WPRI had de Ramel and Mollis winning. The poll was released less than 3 weeks before the primary.

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LOSER

LOSER: Turnout

Voters simply may be too depressed in Rhode Island due to the condition of the economy to even believe there is hope.  Despite the record spend for Governor, only 123,757 came out to vote in the Democratic primary to cast a vote for Governor.   The turnout was 40,000 less than the Democratic primary of 1990.  

Whomever is the next Governor will need to help Rhode Islanders gain some confidence about the state.

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WINNER

WINNER: Allan Fung

The Cranston Mayor faced a tenacious Ken Block in the GOP Primary. The former Moderate Party Chairman poured money and organization into the race.

The popular Fung, however, leveraged his Republican roots to beat back Block. 

Fung's victory sets up a difficult battle with Raimondo who won big against two Progressives - Angel Taveras and Clay Pell. Fung is out of money and will get state matching funds, but it pales to Raimondo's fundraising machine.

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WINNER

WINNER: Nellie Gorbea

Nellie Gorbea was outspent by hundreds of thousands by Guillaume de Ramel.  He loaned his campaign $900,000. The Gorbea upset was a battle of substance over style and her home spun commercials set her apart from rest of the field.

Gorbea could be Rhode Island's first statewide elected Hispanic elected official come November.

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LOSER

LOSER: Local TV

The political and media world changed forever in RI. Never before had a candidate won a contested campaign for a major office without buying local TV. Candidates stopped buying newspapers years ago, but Jorge Elorza's win over Mike Solomon is will shake-up the world of local TV consolidation. Elorza bought no TV. 

This year, Channel 10's parent company (Media General) bought the parent company of Channel 12 (Lin Media) and then the new company sold off Channel 10. If political begins to move away more and more towards digital and direct mail, the implications will be significant on these mega media groups.  

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WINNER

WINNER: Women (Maybe?)

GoLocal has written a lot about the plight of women candidates in leadership roles. They trail their male counterparts in both politics and business leadership roles in RI. With the BIG Raimondo win and Gorbea's upset the Democrats have two strong female candidates to win in November. 

In addition, Catherine Taylor is a credible and well-known candidate to battle Cumberland Mayor Dan McKee in the Lt. Governor's race. Don't look know, but RI could have a majority of General Officers' offices being held by women.

 
 

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