New Poll: RI Lt. Governor’s Race a Tie

New Poll: RI Lt. Governor’s Race a Tie

A poll released Monday of likely Rhode Island voters shows Republican candidate John Loughlin in a statistical tie with incumbent Democrat Sabina Matos in the 2026 race for Lieutenant Governor.

The poll, conducted by Opinion Diagnostics from April 13–16, surveyed 802 likely general election voters and carries a margin of error of ±3.5%. The poll was conducted at the same time as a poll released by an independent candidate for governor, Ken Block.

For Matos, the numbers are concerning. She faces three Democratic challengers in the primary — Former Newport Mayor Xay Khamsyvoravong, Providence City Councilor Sue AnderBois, and Cindy Coyne.

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Loughlin, a U.S. Army veteran, served in the RI General Assembly and lost in a close election to David Cicilline in the race for the First Congressional District in 2010.

Loughlin faces low name recognition (less than 25% of voters), having been out of office for 15-plus years.

 

According to the pollster, the key findings are:
 

• Statistical Tie: The ballot test shows Loughlin and Matos locked in a dead heat within the margin of error.
• Independent Voter Advantage: Loughlin leads among independent voters by a commanding +21% margin, a critical advantage with independents representing the largest voting bloc in Rhode Island.
• Turnout Sensitivity: Modeling shows the race could shift by just a few points depending on turnout composition:
  • If turnout mirrors 2022, Loughlin leads by 1 point
  • If turnout mirrors 2018, Matos leads by 2 points

"The findings reinforce that Rhode Island’s Lieutenant Governor race is highly competitive. In 2022, Matos secured just 51% of the vote. With more than six months remaining before Election Day, Loughlin has already reached parity with the incumbent while maintaining considerable room to grow his statewide profile," said the Loughlin campaign.

“This race is wide open,” said Brian Wynne, President of Opinion Diagnostics. “With a large share of the electorate still unfamiliar with Mr. Loughlin, the data clearly shows that increased voter awareness could significantly shift the dynamics of the race.”

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted among 802 likely 2026 general election voters in Rhode Island. Respondents were contacted via live phone interviews and SMS-to-web surveys. The sample was weighted to reflect the state’s electorate based on gender, age, geography, party affiliation, and ethnicity using Rhode Island Board of Elections data. The margin of error is ±3.5% at the 95% confidence level. The poll was sponsored by Friends of John Loughlin.