Horowitz: Obama: Politically Alive and Very Much Kicking
Tuesday, January 27, 2015
The conventional wisdom after the sweeping Republican victories in the November mid-term elections was that President Obama was a spent political force, destined to spend his last two years in office nearly irrelevant, playing a lot of golf and counting the days until he and Michelle could leave the unfriendly confines of Washington, D.C.. Contrary to this prediction, a proactive President Obama—no longer constrained by concerns that his pronouncements and actions would hurt Democratic Senators up for re-election in more Republican-leaning states—boldly seized the national political agenda in the wake of the election results through a series of consequential Executive Orders that had the added benefit of boosting his popularity. His actions on climate change, Cuba and particularly on immigration were generally popular and demonstrated he didn't’t need Congress to achieve results.
Obama is also finally politically benefiting from an improving economy. Perception is beginning to catch up with reality as more Americans are now rating the economy as good. Further, wages long-stagnant,are starting to tick-up. Most economists predict a year of solid economic growth in 2015, which will help keep the wind at President Obama’s back. President Obama’s approval ratings are approaching the 50%mark, after being mired in the low to mid 40’s for most of 2014. This renewed popularity and political strength set the stage for Obama’s bold and well-received State of the Union Address last week. Obama credibly took credit for the economic resurgence of the United States at a time where are competitors and trading partners are struggling and continued to dominate the national policy debate by outlining a compelling middle class agenda. As President Obama remarked, “America, for all that we have endured; for all the grit and hard work required to come back; for all the tasks that lie ahead, know this: The shadow of crisis has passed, and the State of the Union is strong. At this moment -- with a growing economy, shrinking deficits, bustling industry,booming energy production -- we have risen from recession freer to write our own future than any other nation on Earth. It’s now up to us to choose who we want to be over the next 15 years and for decades to come.”
And the President went on to define the task ahead as through middle class economics providing everyone with a “fair shot”. He highlighted popular new initiatives for free community college and child care assistance to be paid for through a rise in the capital gains tax and a new fee on large banks. Obama elaborated in the speech on his definition of middle class economics. “First, middle-class economics means helping working families feel more secure in a world of constant change. That means helping folks afford childcare, college, health care, a home,retirement. And my budget will address each of these issues, lowering the taxes of working families and putting thousands of dollars back into their pockets each year.”
Online dial and focus groups conducted by noted Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg recorded a strongly positive response to the President's’s remarks and agenda among white swing voters. It is fair to point out, as many pundits have, that these new proposals of Obama are unlikely to pass in the new Republican Congress. However, Obama’s agenda of popular initiatives framed powerfully around boosting the struggling middle class gives the President a stronger hand in any negotiations with the Republican Congressional leadership. There appears to be an implicit recognition of this fact as leading Republicans, such as Representative Paul Ryan (R-Wisconsin), former Vice-Presidential candidate and Chair of the House Ways and Means Committee, are now talking about the issue of income disparity and inequality Since the election, President Obama proved those whom wanted to prematurely write his political obituary wrong. He emerges from a stinging political defeat in the mid-terms, a stronger political force determined to use the Presidential bully pulpit and all the powers of the Presidency to advance his vision of where to take the nation. Anyone who still counts him out simply hasn’t been paying attention.
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLASTRob Horowitz is a strategic and communications consultant who provides general consulting, public relations, direct mail services and polling for national and state issue organizations, various non-profits and elected officials and candidates. He is an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at the University of Rhode Island
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