Guest MINDSETTER™ Gary Morse: Raimondo’s Economic Trojan Horse

Monday, October 20, 2014

 

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Last week, Treasurer Raimondo declared that a core component of her economic plan as Governor would be based on increased construction of public housing.

It's hard to argue with affordable housing since housing is so important.  The issue is whether affordable housing build-out is a well thought out strategy to promote long term economic growth and stabilize property taxes in RI.

The bulk of housing money will come from the US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).  But there are strings attached to HUD money that few people in politics think about.

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HUD Money Is Not Free

HUD has shown that it's no longer content to be just a benevolent source of "free" housing money.  HUD is flexing its muscle in an effort to implement nationwide public policy changes designed to urbanize suburban communities across America.  Backing up that initiative is the billions of dollars HUD disburses annually, together with some little known federal rules, and the federal courts for those who take the money, but don't play by HUD rules.

The rules under HUD's Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing (AFFH) initiative requires that any community taking HUD funds be mandated to keep records on the minority populations down to the neighborhood level(aka census blocks).  Where neighborhoods are shown to have low minority populations, a plan must be on file in town hall outlining how they will address expansion of minority populations throughout all parts of the community.

The Trojan Horse

What happens when a community takes HUD money, but doesn't play by HUD's AFFH rules?  The first victim to feel HUD's legal sting was Westchester County, NY.  In a strange irony, the victims included Bill and Hillary Clinton. 

In 1999, as the Clinton's were wrapping up life in the White House, they purchased a $1.7 million dollar Westchester home in the wealthy hamlet of Chappaqua.  Six years later, Westchester County was sued by HUD on a charge that the County had falsely certified that they were in compliance with AFFH rules.

The essence of the HUD lawsuit was that people who purchase homes in expensive suburban neighborhoods do so primarily as a financial shelter against low income housing.  Price exclusivity had been deemed by HUD to be an impediment to universal fair housing.

In 2009, Westchester accepted a $51 million dollar settlement agreement paid for by local taxpayers requiring that affordable housing be implemented starting with those census blocks having the lowest minority populations.  Impact to the property tax base was not a consideration with HUD. For those living in Westchester, this has been a 5 year nightmare.  The Clinton's are reportedly shopping around for a new place to live in the Hamptons.

Most Rhode Island communities have never considered that they too could be sued by HUD for the same reasons.  Certifying that a HUD compliant plan exists in the town records is based on the honor system.  HUD doesn't review any housing plans for compliance until a complaint is filed.  In spite of the fact that HUD money comes to many RI communities via the State, the State indemnifies itself from any harm should a community be sued by HUD.

Lessons on destabilizing property taxes

If Treasurer Raimondo wants to look at the long term impact of government tinkering with market forces, she only needs to look at the current fiscal condition of the City of Woonsocket.  For over two decades, the City of Woonsocket experimented with a business plan based on HUD money to build affordable housing.  Woonsocket has now realized, too late, that the plan destabilized their property tax base, and there is little that can be done to repair the damage.

Woonsocket is now suffering with a State imposed "supplemental" property tax to cure what has been the slow erosion of their property tax base. Affordable housing advocates don't want to discuss these financial realities, but Woonsocket was forced to.

In November, 2013, Woonsocket Mayor Leo Fontaine delivered a presentation in Superior Court entitled "Unprecedented Fiscal Emergency" outlining the financial condition of Woonsocket as part of ongoing testimony in their own local pension lawsuit.  Part of the problem was the simple economics of Woonsocket’s declining property tax base being incapable of carrying the weight of municipal obligations.  In 2012, bond and pension obligations were 20% of their property tax base.  A healthy community should manage to a target debt load closer to 5% of the overall property tax base.

When job creators look at places to manufacture things, and create manufacturing jobs, they look at numbers like debt load, property taxes, and other relevant statistics.  It's a math problem.

For too long, RI has ignored the hard math that manufacturers don't ignore.  An economic plan should start by viewing RI's problems through the eyes of job creators.  Decent long term jobs will make housing affordable, not government tinkering

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Gary Morse is a retired communications consultant living in Barrington, and active in the debate on affordable housing policies.

 

Related Slideshow: 10 Questions Gina Raimondo Has to Answer When Running for Governor

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10. Money

Can she explain the amount of out of state money?

Most of the candidates for Governor need to answer the question, can they raise enough to be competitive? That is not a problem for Raimondo. She has proven to be the most skilled fundraiser, but her issue is justifying that the vast majority of the money is coming from out-of-state.

Raimondo will face a number of questions regarding who is really behind her campaign - the amount of out-of-state dollars is just one of the questions.

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9. Pension Reform

Did she only reform certain pensions?

Raimondo rose to celebrity status because of her leadership on pension reform. Her efforts helped to stabilize the pension system, but the reform was hardly democratic.

Teachers took the vast majority of the hit, while major groups of pensioners escaped reform including the judges, state police and disability pensioners. Raimondo has some explaining to do.

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8. Lack of Transparency

If she lacks transparency as Treasurer, what will it be like as Governor?

From her deepest critics to the media and even members of the retirement board, many have questioned her and her office's willingness to share information and provide the public insights into her management of the investment commission and the performance of the fund under her leadership.

Data which historically was easily accessed by the public and media is now locked behind the Raimondo wall. Often this raises serious questions and forces the media to seek the simplest information via FOIA requests.

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7. Wall Street

Why is Wall Street spending so much money supporting Raimondo?

Raimondo is the queen of fundraising and so much of it derives from the major players on Wall Street.

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6. Performance

Has Raimondo managed the pension fund competently?

The most important job of the General Treasurer might be the management of the state's retirement fund. The blockbuster investigative piece by Stephen Beale unveiled that the pension system under Raimondo lost $200 million

While she may be able to blitz the airwaves with positive messages about her bio and her leadership in pension reform, her Democratic primary competitors and/or her GOP opponent in the General Election may be able to destroy her credibility by playing up her "mismanagement of the pension system."

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5. Hedge Funds

Will Raimondo pay the price for shifting so much of the assets into Hedge Funds?

For the past six months, Raimondo has been under constant critique for shifting more than 20% of the State's retirement dollars into unregulated Hedge Funds. The critics has included forensic auditor/Forbes contributor Ted Siedle, Rolling Stones magazine's star reporter Matt Taibbi, former General Treasurer and candidate again, Frank Caprio, as well as many of the public unions. The combination of where she gets her campaign dollars, coupled with the shift in investment strategy and the under performance of the fund may all build into a snowball effect.

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4. Connect to RIers

Educated at Yale and Harvard, a Rhode Scholar and a millionaire, can she connect to the average RIer?

Raimondo is a born and bred Rhode Islander, but for her adult life she has been educated at the best colleges in the world and living a professional life aligned with many of America's super rich associated with Wall Street. In her announcement she mentioned a number of times she was a mother, but did not mention that her husband is a partner at Mckinsey - and according to Forbes magazine probably takes home $2 million or so per year.

Raimondo talks a lot about her father losing his job when she was a child, but she has come a long way since then. She could come across as the ultimate RI success story or be perceived as an out of touch venture capitalist.

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3. Siedle and Taibbi

Neither Ted Siedle or Matt Taibbi are going away - can she deflect their questions and charges?

In the past two months, both forensic auditor/Forbes columnist Ted Siedle and Rolling Stone's star reporter Matt Taibbi have raised serious issues about Raimondo's motivation and judgment.

As Taibbi wrote, "The dynamic young Rhodes scholar was allowing her state to be used as a test case for the rest of the country, at the behest of powerful out-of-state financiers with dreams of pushing pension reform down the throats of taxpayers and public workers from coast to coast."

Read more: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/looting-the-pension-funds-20130926#ixzz2o2bLhqKW

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2. Is she a Democrat?

Will Taveras and Pell paint her to be too conservative?

Raimondo is simply hated by the teachers unions and others - big blocks of voters in the Democratic primary. Both Clay Pell and Providence Mayor Angel Taveras will tack to the left and may compete for the same voters allowing her to sneak through to the general. However, progressives and unions may decide to pick Pell over Taveras (who is struggling to raise money and whose track record in Providence may come under fire) and then Pell can take the left leaning primary.

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1. SEC Investigation

Can Raimondo survive an SEC investigation?

Both Siedle and a state senator have written to the SEC calling for an investigation into the investment practices of Raimondo. A federal investigation would be at a minimum a black eye to the General Treasurer and an enforcement action might end a credible campaign. Timing may prove to be everything.

 
 

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