Game On: RI Presidential Contributions Surge

Game On: RI Presidential Contributions Surge

Despite a stalling local economy, Rhode Island voters more than quadrupled their contributions to Presidential campaigns during the third quarter of the year, a review of campaign finance reports shows.

President Obama and Republican hopeful and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney led the way, receiving more than 85 percent of the total in-state contributions as of Sept. 30. The two have combined to take in $282,984 of the $332,627 donated by Rhode Islanders in 2011.

In total, Obama and Romney have received 57 maximum-level donations of $2,500 this year (see chart below) while Rick Perry, John Huntsman and Rick Santorum have received five maximum-level contributions.

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Romney is the Most Electable Republican

While the President still lapped the entire field in local fundraising, Romney’s strong showing ($85,334 to date) is a clear sign that Rhode Islanders view Romney as the GOP frontrunner. Although he has struggled to gain support of the conservative wing of the party in the past, Romney is currently at or near the top of the polls, with the surging Herman Cain and Texas Governor Rick Perry also considered the favorites nationally.

According to Darrell West, Vice President and Director of Governance Studies at the Brookings Institution in Washington D.C., Romney is the opponent Obama should fear most.

“Romney is the Republican with the best chance of defeating President Obama,” he said. “He has the strongest appeal among the moderates likely to decide this race. Rhode Island voters are helping him because they see him as the most electable Republican.”

Patrick Sweeney, the state GOP Executive Director, agreed with West. Sweeney pointed to the high profile endorsements of former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie as examples of Romney’s momentum. Locally, Romney has received maximum contributions from former Governor Don Carcieri, former CVS CEO Tom Ryan and former Congressman and Bryant University President Ronald Machtley.

“This is Governor Romney’s race to lose,” Sweeney said. “He had another outstanding fundraising quarter, has an excellent burn rate, received two key endorsements from Governor Pawlenty and Governor Christie, and has a superior infrastructure around him. The Governor continues to separate himself from the field debate after debate. The country needs a leader who can get the American people back to work and Governor Romney is that person.”

State Has Been Reliably Democratic

But Rhode Island College Professor of Political Communication Valerie Endress said that while Rhode Island continues to struggle, history suggests the state will remain blue in 2012.

“As the pundits always say, with the election over a year away, anything could happen,” Endress said. “Because most predictions point to the fact that the US will not be in full economic recovery by November of 2012 and with Rhode Island one of the hardest-hit states, the President will be more vulnerable. Anything can happen, but past voting history would tell us that the odds are against it.”

And while Romney appears to be mounting a successful fundraising campaign in the Ocean State, Endress noted that he struggled to win over voters in 2008.

“The state has been reliably Democratic since 1928 with merely 4 exceptions, with the last in 1984,” she said. “And, too, Romney did not fare particularly well in 2008, despite his neighboring-state status. In the 2008 primary, he garnered less than 1200 votes from Rhode Islanders.”

Republicans Surging

Obama has raised nearly $200,000 from Rhode Islanders in 2011, with maximum contributions coming from prominent figures like outgoing Brown University President Ruth Simmons, former Providence Mayor Joe Paolino and top Democratic fundraiser Mark Weiner.

But Sweeney said he believes Republicans are surging in the state because they can relate to the average taxpayer who is struggling to get by. He said the President has had too many failed policies for three years, including the nearly-trillion dollar stimulus package that he believes did little to drop the unemployment rate.

“President Obama told us in 2009, ‘There's no excuse--I’m not going to make any excuses. If stuff hasn't worked and people don't feel like I’ve led the country in the right direction, then you'll have a new president,’” Sweeney said. “Since the President took office, we’ve lost 2.2 million jobs leading to a 9.1% unemployment rate, incurred 7.5 million foreclosures, and added $4.2 billion to the deficit. It is clear Obama Isn’t Working and the taxpayer’s voice will be heard on November 6th.”

Obama Still the Favorite

But Endress sees it differently. While there is still more than year before the election, she said President Obama, is still in a strong position in Rhode Island.

“While Romney's prospects are likely to improve, and every incumbent--including President Obama--has reason to be concerned this election, Obama has a strong ground organization on his side in what is decidedly a ‘blue’ state,” Endress said. “Right now, he's clearly the odds-on favorite.”

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