5 Reasons for New Year’s Optimism - Horowitz
Tuesday, December 27, 2022
For the past ten years, I’ve written a New Year’s column listing reasons for optimism. Click here to see how I did last year This year, I do the same. It remains the nature of news and opinion writing that positive developments get short shrift.
As 2023 is only a few days away, five reasons for optimism are outlined below:
· Advancing the “Big Lie” proved to be a dead solid electoral loser in the midterms with Trump-backed election deniers going down to defeat nearly across the board in competitive contests in large measure because they repelled independents, moderates, and a slice of Republicans. This includes a rejection of election-denying secretary of state candidates, who if elected, posed a threat to “free and fair’ elections.” This willingness of key swing voters-- in particular-- to prioritize democracy in their voting decisions bodes well for fending off the still present threats to our democracy from the authoritarian-friendly right, the pervasiveness of disinformation, and extremists.
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLAST
· Under the courageous and skillful leadership of President Zelensky, the Ukrainian military has far outperformed the much larger Russian military, which was predicted by nearly everyone to be able to march to a relatively quick victory, forcing the Russians to retreat and reversing some of their initial territorial gains. In this effort, Ukraine is being aided by a unified and strengthened NATO, fortified by the skillful leadership of President Biden. In the United States, bi-partisan support for aiding Ukraine remains solid and an overwhelming majority of the American people back it. (There are some loud voices of disagreement on the Trump-right who inexplicably admire Vladimir Putin and denigrate the brave Ukrainians. But they are a distinct minority even among Republicans.) The example of Ukraine holding off Russia sends a strong message throughout the world that invading another nation simply because you want to and believe you have the military power to win will not be easy and could have highly negative consequences. It points the way to the resurgence of democracy and the decline of authoritarianism.
· Renewables will overtake coal by early 2025 as the world’s leading source of energy, according to the International Energy Agency. The transition to non-carbon-producing renewable energy is accelerating due to continued major declines in pricing, the Biden Administration winning adoption of unprecedented incentives to speed the transition on the home front, and the European Union’s rededication to a faster transition, reducing its dependence on Russian fossil fuels in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine, among other positive developments. Also, the defeat of Bolsonaro in Brazil, under whose leadership the deforestation of the Amazon was proceeding apace by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who is dedicated to protecting the world’s most important carbon sink, is an important victory for the climate. Taken together, these developments keep the window of opportunity open for limiting the rise in global temperatures to the 1.5% Celsius or 2.7% Fahrenheit above pre-industrial levels that scientists say is essential to avoiding the worst consequences of climate change.
· Inflation is beginning to recede and most independent forecasts for 2023 predict a significant reduction. While this reduction, fueled in large measure by the Federal Reserve’s ongoing raising of interest rates, will not be painless, it is essential for the long-term health of the American economy and will provide financial relief next year to most American families. We do not want inflationary expectations to set in, so we get a return to the persistent inflation of the 1970s that took then Federal Reserve chair Paul Volcker taking draconian actions, including raising interest rates to 20%, to stamp out.
· The Boss is back. He will be touring with the E Street Band in 2023, as plans for a 2022 tour were delayed. This time, concert dates have been announced and tickets have been on sale for several weeks. At 73, Bruce Springsteen still has it very much going on. If you have never seen him in concert, I highly recommend finding out what you’ve been missing. For those of us who have gone to more than our fair share of Springsteen concerts over the years, we are looking forward to what remains a treat. This Springsteen fan as well has his daughter and son-in-law, are specifically looking forward to the concert in Philadelphia on March 16—where we will be in attendance.
Rob Horowitz is a strategic and communications consultant who provides general consulting, public relations, direct mail services and polling for national and state issue organizations, various non-profits, businesses, and elected officials and candidates. He is an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at the University of Rhode Island.
