5 Questions to Keep in Mind While Watching Tonight’s Vice Presidential Debate
Rob Horowitz, MINDSETTER™
5 Questions to Keep in Mind While Watching Tonight’s Vice Presidential Debate
1) Are there any memorable sound bites or exchanges between the candidates? Memorable one-liners or sound bites, when they occur, often serve as frames for the next several days’ media coverage of the debate. Since the audience for vice-presidential debates is in nearly every case smaller than for presidential debates, the post-debate news coverage takes on even more importance. For example, in the 1988 Vice-Presidential debate, Lloyd Bentsen’s response to Dan Quayle saying he had as much Congressional experience as Jack Kennedy when Kennedy was elected President, dominated the post-debate media coverage “I knew Jack Kennedy. Jack Kennedy was a friend of mine," exclaimed Bentsen. "And you’re no Jack Kennedy.” Today, a sharp back and forth between the candidates can serve the same purpose, especially since cable news with its expanded news holes will introduce segments with longer lead ins that can encompass a more extended debate excerpt.
2) Is JD Vance keeping the focus on the economy and immigration, tying Harris to the Biden Administration record? While the Republican ticket’s advantages on the economy and immigration have significantly narrowed, the majority of voters still prefer it on these issues to the Democratic ticket. If JD Vance succeeds in making these 2 issues the main focus of the debate and effectively connects Harris as the incumbent vice-president to the record of the Biden Administration on these two topics, that will likely mean he is turning in a strong debate performance.
3) Is Tim Walz keeping the focus on abortion and the threat to democracy posed by Donald Trump? The Democratic ticket is preferred by substantial majorities on the topics of who is better on reproductive rights and safeguarding our democracy. If Tim Walz succeeds in keeping the focus on these two issues throughout the debate by reminding people of Trump’s outsized role in the overturning of Roe v. Wade and its continuing negative impacts on women’s health, as well as by tying JD Vance to Trump’s continuing false insistence that he won the 2020 election and the former president’s actions leading up to January 6, this will likely mean a good night for the Minnesota governor. By saying that unlike Mike Pence, he would have refused to certify the 2020 election, sending it back to the states—an irresponsible and blatantly unconstitutional position—the Ohio senator has provided the opening for Walz to drive this point home, reminding swing voters of what they dislike most about Mr. Trump.
4) Which candidate is doing a better job of credibly extolling the virtues and plans of their running mates? The attributes of the vice-presidential candidates are almost never an important factor for voters. When it comes down to it, voters are choosing between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Their running mates are little more than an afterthought. As a result, the vice-presidential candidate who does the better job tonight in credibly singing the praises of their running mate as well as parrying attacks on the top of the ticket will be the one likely making the most persuasive case to swing voters and undecideds.
5) Is there a gap between polling on the horserace and debate winners and losers? Research shows that the main effect of debates is to reinforce existing candidate preferences. If you support a candidate going into the debate, you are likely to think that candidate won the debate. So, to measure true debate impacts, it is important to compare the post-debate polls asking who won or lost with candidates’ current standing in national polling. For example, if 60% of voters believe JD Vance won the debate, since that is well above the 47% or so who now indicate their support for the Republican ticket, that is a very good night for him. In other words, to gauge which ticket is likely to benefit the most from their performance tomorrow night, look for the candidate whose performance, as measured by the post-debate polls, substantially exceeds their current percentage of the vote. Additionally, be sure to look at the composition of the sample of these instant polls of debate watchers to ensure that the percentage of Democrats and Republicans, and Independents in the sample are roughly comparable to their shares of the electorate. If they contain a disproportionate number of Democrats or Republicans, which is often the case in instant polls, factor that into your analysis. Additionally, keep in mind that as people --many who did not watch the debate closely or at all----absorb the news coverage, the perceptions of who won or lost the debate often changes markedly from the instant poll results released the night of the debate—even if the poll samples were representative.