The 2,502 Year

The 2,502 Year

Today marks one year since the first identified case of COVID-19 in Rhode Island. Let’s take a moment to reflect and mourn the 523,299 lives lost to COVID in the U.S., and here at home, the 2,502 people who have died in Rhode Island. That’s almost as many people as were killed at the Twin Towers on 9/11. Let’s also consider how many of those deaths might have been avoided.

If you have 15 minutes, please watch this short film from the New York Times offering a first-hand perspective on the reality of the pandemic. It would be good if our elected leaders might see this video. Maybe they would take the pandemic more seriously, and be less cavalier about Rhode Islander’s lives.

We are all grateful for the welcome decline in COVID cases over the past several weeks, but the war against COVID is far from over. The pandemic has not disappeared in Rhode Island, and the state remains at a Critical Level of infection with the fourth highest infection rate in the country.

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Most appalling is the COVID death rate in Rhode Island, now the third highest in the country and 50% above the national average. One out of every 423 people in Rhode Island has died of COVID since the start of the pandemic. If Rhode Island had followed the more reasoned, science-based, safer policies of Vermont (total 204 deaths, 1 out of every 3,059) or Maine (total 701 deaths, 1 out of every 1,854), the result might have been somewhere around 360-570 deaths here instead of 2,502. Those additional 2,000 Rhode Islanders lost are the result of what we and our leaders did, and didn’t, do.

This is not something to be proud of, but to be ashamed of.

In addition to those who died, hundreds of thousands of Rhode Islanders could be left with long-term health problems. This is not just an issue for older victims. A recent study found that 27% of those aged 18-39 had long-term health problems after COVID, and another study found that almost 70% of COVID survivors with an average age of 44 had organ damage.

When the Governor decides to reopen bars or allow indoor dining in restaurants, many people will go under the assumption that it must be safe to do so, otherwise, why would it be allowed? Sadly, that’s not the case. Studies have shown that restaurants and bars, with unmasked people crowding indoors, with the additional mind-numbing influences of alcohol, are some of the most dangerous places for spreading infection. States that reopened bars have reported a doubling of COVID cases within three weeks.

Was it worth the lives of maybe hundreds or even thousands of Rhode Islanders to be able to eat a hamburger indoors? Will it be worth even more deaths for a drink at a bar? Would it be worth your own life? Some of Rhode Island’s craft beers are delicious, but is it really worth dying for a draft?

The most knowledgeable public health experts in the world are warning against the dangers of jumping the gun. Dr. Rochelle Walensky, Director of the Centers for Disease Control, recently cautioned that “Now is not the time to relax restrictions” and Dr. Marc Lipsitch of Harvard warned, “Taking the first hint of a downward trend as a reason to reopen is how you get to even higher numbers”.

This is exactly the mistake that Rhode Island has made. Three times.

Last spring, Rhode Island delayed the first lockdown by a couple of weeks compared with other New England states. Every day is crucial in a pandemic and sets the stage for what happens next. Then Rhode Island was also the first to start reopening, ahead of other neighboring states. The result was that our infection rate never got down as low as it should have. The problem was made so much worse when the infection rate started rising in September and was allowed to reach Extreme levels before the ‘Pause’ started on November 30.

The ‘Pause’ ended on December 20. Just 8 days later, the infection rate started to rise, and continued until Rhode Island again became among the most infected places on Earth.

Most recently Rhode Island appears to have made the same mistake for a third time, by reopening bars on February 12. Now, just two weeks later, the same pattern may be repeating with the infection rate having increased 13% over the past week.  Maybe this is just variability in cases and the data, but with variants spreading that are resistant to vaccines and treatments, and Rhode Island’s virus-friendly risky policies, is it worth taking the chance this could be the start of another surge?

As Albert Einstein said, “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results”.

The infection rate today, at 33.4/100,000/day, is similar to what it was at the worst of the peak last April. The declines from the devastating levels of over 130/100,000 in January highlight just how horrifically bad the situation was here only a couple of months ago. The level of infection in Rhode Island continues to be Critical - it would have to decrease to 25/100,000 just to be called ‘High’.

The fight against COVID-19 going forward comes down to a race against variants. Mutations are continually emerging with increasing resistance to vaccines. Yet another variant has recently been identified and is spreading in New York, called B.1.526, which weakens the effectiveness of vaccines. This latest variant could well be in Rhode Island already, but we probably wouldn’t know it because of the inexcusably low rate of genomic testing being done here.

Rhode Island is poorly positioned for this struggle. Between the high level of infection, risky practices such as reopening of bars, and the poor vaccination rate, the state is at risk of being overwhelmed by resistant viral variants before enough people can be vaccinated.

Vaccination in Rhode Island has improved in recent weeks, since the ‘F’ grade from Harvard just a few weeks ago. Rhode Island is no longer dead last in the country, and currently ranks 35th in U.S. for fully vaccinating people and 29th for using its available vaccine supply.

However, given the high levels of infection and the high death rate here, this is nowhere near enough. Rhode Island must dramatically increase the pace of vaccinations before variants have a chance to spread. We must also substantially increase the genomic testing for variants, as an early warning system to alert us to problems before it’s too late. The state also needs to seriously reconsider the risks and ramifications of reopening bars and allowing indoor dining in restaurants at this time. 

We, and our elected leaders, can’t let impatience snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. The vaccines offer an important tool to help contain the pandemic and are a light at the end of the tunnel, but only if deployed quickly and used together with other measures. 

The next elections are in November next year. Unfortunately, the coronavirus will still be with us, though hopefully more controlled than it is today - if our elected leaders don’t continue to make a mess of things and turn Rhode Island into a permanent hot spot of contagion. When the time comes to elect the Governor, Lieutenant Governor, and our state representatives, you might want to vote for people who care more about your health and your life than money.

Every life is unique and should be cherished. Each of us is irreplaceable. Our lives are the most precious thing of all. It is intolerable for anyone’s life to be sacrificed for financial interests, state budgets, or any outrageous idea of a ‘balance’ between lives and the economy. Consider that your own life might depend on who you vote for, because it probably does.

Nick Landekic a retired scientist and biotechnology executive with over 35 years of experience in the pharmaceutical industry.