Again, RI Worst in Northeast in Managing COVID
Wednesday, August 18, 2021
Rhode Island, once again, continues to do poorly in managing the pandemic – at the cost of our health and lives. Rhode Island has had the highest number of infections per capita of any state in the U.S.
This is not just in the past. As seems to distressingly often be the case, Rhode Island again has the worst performances of all states in the northeast, with the highest rate of new COVID cases. We are the only state in the northeast ranked “Very High” risk level by covidactnow.org.
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLAST
Rhode Island’s COVID numbers are bad across the board. Since mid-June when the Delta variant hit us in earnest, new weekly COVID cases have increased nearly 10-fold from 187 to 1,786 - a 1,000% increase.
Explosive Growth in COVID Cases in Children
Children are now bearing the brunt of infections, both because of the more severe Delta variant, and because vaccination is not yet available for those under age 12. New COVID cases in children under age 18 are growing even faster than the overall total, and have increased more than 12-fold since mid-June from 25 per week to 307.
COVID in children under 18 now represents 22% of all weekly cases, up from 18% in mid-July.
It is the ultimate unfairness that children are experiencing the worst of the Delta variant surge. In addition to being the ones most affected because they lack protection from vaccination, evidence also suggests Delta may be making kids sicker than previous strains.
Children depend on adults to keep them safe, since they usually can’t take matters into their own hands and make responsible choices for their own safety. The CDC has recommended that all students and staff wear masks inside schools, regardless of vaccination status. By ignoring this guidance, Rhode Island’s leaders are failing to keep children safe.
COVID Hospitalizations Are Rising Fast – and ICU’s Are Filling Up
Hospitalizations for COVID are also increasing along with cases. Compared to mid-June, the average number of people hospitalized for COVID at any given time has roughly tripled from 27 to 77. New weekly hospitalizations have soared even more, almost 8-fold from 11 the week ending June 25 to 85 this past week.
At the rate new infections are growing, it might not be long before the ICU’s are completely filled, and we are once again at the point of having to build field hospitals.
When that happens, you may not be able to count on just ‘going to the hospital’ if you get sick.
How Other Areas Are Doing
It’s absolutely true that the entire country, and the whole world, are battling the Delta variant and having problems. However, that doesn’t mean the response should be to throw up our hands and give in. Many places are managing the pandemic much better than Rhode Island is, with the result being fewer people sickened.
“Density” is often used as an excuse for Rhode Island’s dreadful numbers and abysmal management of the pandemic. However, it’s not a forgone conclusion. There are more densely populated places, both states and metropolitan areas (to say nothing of countries), which have managed to act in prudent ways to keep their infection rates much lower than Rhode Island.
The following analysis compares daily new COVID cases as of August 17, 2021, in Rhode Island vs. states and metropolitan areas all of which have greater population densities than ours:
“Density” is not an excuse. More densely populated areas than Rhode Island are managing to keep their new case infection rates at less than half of ours. We could as well – if our leadership wanted to, and was willing to do what it took to keep us safe.
The Price We Pay
Rhode Island currently has almost no public health safety measures in place to protect us from the onslaught of the Delta variant. Some people take false comfort in noting ‘but the restaurants and bars are all full’ – but this is exactly why we are experiencing such meteoric growth in infections. The price we are paying is more people sickened, and dead, than might otherwise happen if we followed prudent, science-based, common-sense public health strategies.
Vermont and Maine have consistently been among the best in responding to the pandemic and minimizing the inescapable illness and loss of life. What could things have looked like if Rhode Island had chosen to act like Vermont or Maine, instead of the way we have?
The following table analyzes and compares per capita infection and death rates to date between Rhode Island and Vermont and Maine. Though speculative, if Rhode Island had followed policies and practices similar to Vermont and Maine, we hypothetically might have had about 100,000 fewer infections and 2,000 fewer deaths than we have endured.
It has been a very heavy price to pay for the choices our leaders, and we, have made.
What Happens Next?
Growth in cases and hospitalizations in Rhode Island is now exponential. This is what exponential growth looks like, and a model predicting what would happen with Delta variant infections - unless measures are taken to curtail it.
Governor Dan McKee has refused to take any steps to limit spread. He refuses to implement masking requirements for schools or indoor activities.
It’s easy to extend the lines and predict where it will go – to much worse levels, unless we start acting seriously right now. Another month or two at the same rates infections have been increasing in Rhode Island could, once again, make us the most highly infected place in Earth – with an illness and death toll to match. The time to act is now, not when the situation has spiraled completely out of control and physicians and nurses are pleading for help because of overflowing hospitals.
Governor McKee’s assertion that while past performance may not have been the best but the picture today is better, is not accurate. Rhode Island moved up from having the second-highest per capita infection rate to the number one highest of all states under his watch. His irresponsible policies and refusal to abide by CDC recommendations for indoor masking are making more Rhode Islanders sick.
The situation will get worse because of a combination of issues. The most significant factor may be students returning to school unmasked. Children under age 12 currently have no protection against infection – they are not yet eligible to be vaccinated, and masks are not required in schools. This is setting the stage for potentially explosive growth in cases as children pass the virus among themselves and infect each other, and then bring the virus home to infect their parents and families. Additionally, last year infections increased into the fall and winter as people moved indoors, which is likely to happen again.
Some people have talked about needing to ‘learn to live with COVID’. The hard, unpleasant truth is that COVID is now endemic. The Delta variant has made the illusory goal of ‘herd immunity’ impossible.
We will never get through this with half-hearted measures. By ignoring reality and trying to avoid pain, Governor McKee is only prolonging it and making things so much worse and for a far longer time than would otherwise be necessary. Dealing with a formidable foe requires equally powerful measures, not arrogance, denial, delusion, or meaningless token gestures.
Vaccination alone is not enough. Especially against the Delta variant, vaccines alone will not stop it
Governor McKee placing sole hope on vaccines is hopelessly naïve, and will not work any better than Governor Raimondo’s all-or-nothing bet on testing alone. If we want to get out of this, other actions are also needed in addition to vaccination.
New Zealand is doing a nationwide lock-down after a single new COVID case was reported https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-58241619.
It is too much to expect such tough measures here, but there is plenty that can be done. Dr. Michael Fine, former Rhode Island state medical director, eloquently laid out what can be done to make Rhode Island safer.
The virus doesn’t care how frustrated we are. We can wish as hard as we want, but COVID is just not going away. It will continue to infect people and will prevent any semblance of normal life returning until we accept reality and deal with it in the only ways possible: prudent, science-based public health measures including vaccinations for everyone, wearing masks indoors and social distancing during surges, requiring masking for all students and staff, regular testing for everyone regardless of whether or not you feel sick, avoiding indoor gatherings in unmasked settings during surges, and thinking carefully about the need for travel during times of spikes.
This is what learning to live with COVID means: respecting the virus and the realities of the pandemic. It’s not what any of us would have chosen, but it’s the hand we were dealt. The world is forever changed, and we must change with it if we want to survive. Wearing a mask is a lot less inconvenient than dying or having long COVID, and much less uncomfortable than being put on a ventilator.
Rhode Island’s numbers are rising fast across the board, especially among children. Do we really want to repeat the awful pain and catastrophic costs in health and lives of last year and this winter? Unless Governor McKee makes dramatic changes in his actions right now, the worst is yet to come.
Related Articles
- Delta Variant Has Hit RI – What You Need to Know
- Is Rhode Island Ready for the Delta Variant?
- Delta Variant May Impact RI’s Pandemic Recovery, Vaccination “Cold Zones” May Fuel Spread
- Warning Issued to Vaccinated About Breakthrough Delta Cases By RI’s Former Director of Health
- Rhode Island Delta Variant by the Numbers: Warning Signs
- Delta Variant Is Making Kids Sicker
- What Comes After Delta? RI’s Exploding Cases Creates Vulnerabilities for Dangerous New Variants
- 7 Delta Variant Developments — RI Hospitalizations Increase 368% in 3 Weeks
- Rise of the Delta Variant Calls for Re-Doubling Efforts to Overcome Vaccine Hesitancy - Horowitz
- In Rhode Island, How Survivable Is the Delta Variant for the Unvaccinated?
- Critical New Data From CDC on Delta Variant: Vaccinated People May Spread Disease
