John Ghiorse’s Update On Hurricane Earl: Wednesday Morning
Wednesday, September 01, 2010
What’s Happening Now:
Earl has weakened a bit overnight and is now a Category 3 Hurricane this morning with top sustained winds of 125 mph as it continues to churn toward the northwest at around 16mph. Even though it has lost some strength, it is still a large and powerful storm and top winds are down just 10 mph over yesterday’s Category 4 status. The eye of Earl is located just east of the Bahamas approximately 800 miles south southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. The storm is about 1100 miles due south of Providence and still has a long way to go before potentially getting to a point where it could affect us. However, it is now getting into a position that if it were to continue to move in the same direction, it would make landfall somewhere along the East Coast. The National Hurricane Center has issued a Hurricane Watch for parts of the North Carolina and Virginia coasts. A Watch means that hurricane conditions are POSSIBLE within 48 hours in those areas.
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The official forecast track of the eye brings the storm to within 50 miles of North Carolina’s outer banks late tomorrow night and then turns Earl on a north northeasterly course as it heads up our way. That path has Earl passing around 50-100 miles east of the Cape late Friday night. It would continue to pull rapidly away from New England on Saturday as it heads into the Canadian Maritimes. On the positive, encouraging side, that official forecast track of Earl has been very consistent over the past day or so. However, that is a bit too close for comfort and I continue to be more cautious and concerned about a track that would be closer to the Cape and Islands. As I pointed out yesterday, a slight deviation can make a BIG difference. As I see it if the eye Earl passes over the Outer Banks of North Carolina it will be of major concern to us. That means that the storm is so far west that the eye probably would pass very close to if not over Rhode Island or Southeastern Massachusetts late Friday night. So, we are rapidly approaching the critical time and we should know by early tomorrow if the official track is holding or if the storm is going to deviate from that path.
What You Should Be Doing Now:
Assuming that you have already made preliminary plans and preparations as suggested yesterday morning, there is really very little you can do today except to reevaluate and recheck your plans … and sit tight. Since the storm is still over 1000 miles away and the track is not etched in granite there is no way at this point I can give you any details on just how strong the winds will be or how much rain we will get. Nor can we yet predict any details on coastal flooding or potential storm surge. The main thing is to keep close tabs on the latest storm information and don’t become overly concerned. In spite of the fact that we have not had a direct hit from a hurricane in almost 20 years, that does not mean that we are due and that Earl is the one that is going to break that streak. We take each storm as it comes on an individual basis and at least right now the odds continue to be in our favor.
Future Updates: Every day and see my Tweets on GoLocalProv.com weather.
I will have another update on Earl tomorrow morning and perhaps one this evening if new information comes in that dramatically changes the situation. Remember we are still in a wait and see stage right now. We still have time to do the things we need to do if the storm looks like it’s going to make a run at us.