Are There Early Warning Signs Rhode Island Could Face 2nd Coronavirus Wave This Fall?
Friday, July 10, 2020
The number of new coronavirus cases has dropped precipitously in Rhode Island over the past month and the decline in cases may give Governor Gina Raimondo a sense success, but there are some early signs that the lull may be temporary and there is an omnipresent reality that the coronavirus does exactly what it wants to do.
“We are doing great” is a constant refrain by Raimondo, which glosses over the possibility of looming dangers.
There are stark realities of the virus, as America saw a record number of new cases in the past 24 hours — more than 63,000.
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Rhode Island's Reality
First, Rhode Island has suffered through the 5th highest number of deaths per 100,000 residents in the United States.
Secondly, early mistakes in managing nursing homes led to Rhode Island having nearly the highest percentage of nursing home deaths in America. According to a state by state comparison compiled by the New York Times, 79% of Rhode Island deaths are tied to nursing homes — second only to New Hampshire’s 80% death percentage.
Third, Rhode Island continues to fail to meet the guidelines of the Center for Disease Control for reopening states — Rhode Island continues to reopen despite the failure to meet CDC criteria. According to ProPublica, Rhode Island failed to meet one of the four CDC criteria to reopen.
Now, Rhode Island is reopening nursing homes to visitors. And, one has already been forced to lockdown due to the infection of a staff member - just days after reopening.
Rhode Island faces a number of looming challenges -- some inside the Raimondo administration's control, and some that there needs to be a greater focus on.
Back to School - Warning of Shutdown By Columbus Day
Raimondo and President Donald Trump are both driven to get children back into the classroom this coming school year. Raimondo has outlined an aggressive plan and dictated to local school districts to have a plan submitted for in-classroom learning. Plans must be submitted in July and students are to return to school before the end of August.
Similarly, Trump has urged public schools across the country to return to the classroom or face cuts to federal funding.
The soon to be Dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, Dr. Ashish Jha, now the head of the Harvard Global Health Institute issued a stark warning this week about the prospect of fully reopening schools during an appearance on CNN Wednesday.
“If we don’t do the things that the CDC is asking for and more, the schools will all be shut by Columbus Day, and they will be shut for long periods of time,” Jha said. “That’s what we have to avoid, and we can’t bluff our way through this. We have to let science drive it.”
Indoor Dining at Restaurants
While both New York and New Jersey continue to ban indoor dining, Raimondo has been aggressive in reopening restaurants.
Governor Andrew Cuomo said on Monday. "New York City goes into Phase III but with no indoor dining. The numbers show we are right where we want to be, but what's happening around the country is a cold reminder that we need to continue being cautious and smart and disciplined - no one wants to go back to the hell that we went through."
Dr. Alan Roth, who helped lead the response to the coronavirus breakout in New York, on GoLocal LIVE last week. “I think it is simple, we need a national policy across the country where the regulations are similar that policies are followed for social distancing wearing a mask and keeping crowd control,”
Roth is the Chairman of Family Medicine and Ambulatory Care at Jamaica Hospital and was at the forefront of the response at New York hospital.
“I don't think restaurants could be safe right now...you can't just take your mask off and eat for indoor dining I can't see someone six feet away from me eating dinner and sneezing and coughing," said Roth. "We know that it will be transmitted through the ventilation systems, and until either the virus is controlled and there's a vaccine...I’m not sure indoor dining will be okay. I'm not sure anywhere you need to take a mask off in close proximity is going to be safe perhaps for years.”
Missing Testing Goals
While Raimondo constantly claims “Rhode Island is #1 in testing” the number of tests being implemented on a daily basis has been decreasing recently at a time that testing needs to increase to support Raimondo’s aggressive reopening program.
Testing has fallen by 25% from a daily average of more than 4,000 tests per day to a recent daily average of approximately 3,000.
Raimondo had promised a plan to test 20,000 per day by the end of September -- and 10,000 by July -- which she said was critical to keep colleges and schools safe. That promise seems highly unlikely based on trends and the closure of the Twin River testing facility.
National Cases Exploding
While the number of new cases in Rhode Island has dipped to 40 to 50 per day, the numbers have actually shown a five-day increase over a low of 23 new cases. While 23 new cases is a dramatic decrease from the April 23 high of 419 cases, the number of new cases has continued to rise since the July 3 low. Dr. Michael Fine, Rhode Island's former Director of Health says that "in most countries, if they have 50 new cases they would shut down."
The virus knows no boundaries. In April and May states like California and Florida were being celebrated for their low number of cases and deaths. Both states are now being hit by record number of cases and deaths. As summer travel continues and colleges are poised to return in six weeks, the national spread is a reality.
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