“The Sunday Political Brunch”—August 21, 2016

Sunday, August 21, 2016

 

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We are still on the road this week with a visit to my old home of Providence, where - as elsewhere - there is turmoil among the voting public. Many here are dissatisfied with the two main Presidential choices and are thinking about third-party candidates, or about just staying home and not voting. Let’s “brunch” on that this week:

“The Sanders Dilemma” – I have talked repeatedly with Bernie Sanders supporters, perhaps way more than those of any other candidate. I bet the count is over 100, but so far only four have told me they are definitely backing Hillary Clinton. Some may vote for Trump, and some will vote Green or Libertarian, but the largest group includes those who just may not vote at all. Providence City Councilman Wilbur Jennings, Jr., tells me: “Right now I’m undecided, although I am a die-hard Democrat. But I was a Sanders convention delegate, and right now I am trying to keep the revolution alive.” Jennings believes the nomination was unfairly taken from Sanders, but in the end says he might vote for Clinton, although he’s still not certain.

“Johnson/Weld” – Support for the Libertarian Party ticket of Gary Johnson and William Weld – both former Republican Governors – remains solid. This week, I interviewed Rhode Island Libertarian leader Tony Jones, who has run for office under that party’s banner (photo above). I asked Jones what it means to be a Libertarian; and he said, “It’s fiscally conservative and socially cool.” Even my old friend, former State Senator Dawson Hodgson (R-RI), has bolted his party’s candidate, to endorse Libertarians Johnson/Weld. He’s hardly alone.

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“What Say You, GOP?” – So after all of the turmoil in Campaign 2016, why is Donald Trump still viable despite derision from the left, and division from the right? Former West Virginia Republican Party Chairman Mike Stuart, who now runs the Trump campaign in the Mountain State, perhaps sums it up best. "At some point - Republicans and Democrats - it started to turn off in me in terms of those speeches, every year or every two years promising, 'I'm going to fix it, I'm going to fix it,' and nothing gets done. They do nothing. And so what I like about Donald Trump is that he's a guy who does it. He gets things done," Stuart said. In short, the unconventional candidate still has lots of appeal.

“The Common Bond” – So we’ve heard from a prominent Democrat, an ardent Libertarian, and a rebel Republican. Is there a common theme about voter anger and dissent this year? “I think there is such an anti-incumbent, anti-two party [theme], such a major dissatisfaction that actually this election cycle people are willing to think outside of the box and to think about third-party and independent candidates,” said Libertarian Tony Jones. Would a Democrat like Wilbur Jennings go third-party? “Well it looks like they are still possibilities, because I see they are out there working very hard. I see people telling me they are going to vote for the Libertarian candidate, because people just don’t know what to do. I’m all over the City of Providence and people say, ‘I don’t know who to vote for,’” Councilman Jennings said.

“What the Polls Say” – The Libertarian ticket has polled as high as 13 percent. Right now the Real Clear Politics composite poll has them at 8.6 percent. The Green Party’s Jill Steins is at 3.1 percent. So how does this help or hurt the two major parties? Well, in a head-to-head matchup Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by 6 percentage points. When you factor in the Libertarian and Green party votes, Hillary Clinton’s lead over Trump shrinks slightly to 5.5 percent, so right now the third parties are not deal breakers. But if a third-party nominee reaches 15 percent in the polls, they will make the fall debate stage and that changes everything.

“Why All of This Matters” – Despite a rough three weeks since the conventions ended, I don’t think Trump is toast – not yet, anyway! He needs to get the management of his campaign on track after the departures of his first chief, Corey Lewandowski, and now his second chief, Paul Manafort. Bringing a radioactive Roger Ailes and the chief of the Brietbart News Network to the team may or may not work. But the public is mad, and a volatile electorate is very hard to predict. The Trump campaign is on oxygen, but it’s not on life support just yet.

Is your vote changing at all in Campaign 2016? Have you switched? Tell us by clicking the comment button at www.MarkCurtisMedia.com.

 

Related Slideshow: 10 Ways Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump Are Actually Similar

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Universal Health Care 

Despite sitting on opposite sides of the aisle, Trump and Sanders essentially share the same healthcare plan. But you don’t have to take our word for it—Ted Cruz, Trump’s chief rival, said himself that Trump and Sanders “have basically the same healthcare plan," in an interview with Fox News’ Sean Hannity.

"Donald Trump enthusiastically supported the TARP bailout of big banks. I opposed it. He enthusiastically supported Barack Obama's stimulus plan. He thought it should have been bigger. I think it was a disaster and a waste of money. Actually, Donald not only supported both of those, but he argued that Obamacare should be expanded to make it socialized medicine for everyone,” Cruz told Hannity

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Reforming Wall Street

Both candidates have made serious noise talking about reforming Wall Street. Bernie Sanders has just about made his whole career on taking on financial kingpins, and has attracted many young fans in the process.

While the uber-capitalist Trump may seem like the candidate to take on his fellow one-percenters, his words say something different. Trump blasted hedge fund managers on CBS, saying they are “getting away with murder,” on CBS’ “Face the Nation" in 2015.

"The hedge fund guys didn't build this country. These are guys that shift paper around and they get lucky,” Trump said.

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They Don't Take Money from Wall Street

It’s not just that the candidates criticize Wall Street and big banks—plenty do that. But Trump and Sanders back up their tough talk by not attracting campaign donations from those same financial institutions.

Sure, Hillary Clinton has taken aim at the major financial mavericks during her time on the campaign trail—what self-respecting Democrat hasn’t? But a closer look at her campaign financials shows that she isn’t putting her money where her mouth is.

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Their Campaigns are Populist Movements

Neither Trump nor Sanders are what you would call a “party darling.” Both have taken aim at the lions and leaders of their own parties have been unafraid to make controversial statements regarding the political establishments.

Instead, their campaigns have been buoyed by passionate, typically politically apathetic people. People who have finally found someone they  can relate to in the political landscape and someone they feel they can trust. Despite repeated predictions of failure, regular people continue to respond to their campaigns, as both Sanders and Trump remain near or at the polls as the primaries begin.

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The Most Unusual Candidates (Ever?)

Trump and Sanders are certainly the most unusual candidates this year, as both the Republican and Democratic fields contain typical governors, senators and congressman vying for the ultimate government job. It goes one step further, however—they may be the most unusual candidates a Presidential campaign has ever seen.

Sure, Trump isn’t the first rich eccentric to take a run at the Oval Office (just google Ross Perot if you don’t believe us.) But he’s certainly the first candidate to speak about immigrants and other races as he has.

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Massive Crowds

Political candidates of any variety like going where they are wanted. They make sure that there are plenty of warm well-wishers to make campaign events see exciting and full.

Trump and Sanders, however, seem to be able to attract raucous crowds that are more akin to rock concert or playoff game than a political rally. People come in costume, dressed as their favorite candidate. Teenagers, even though they cannot cast a vote, turn out in full face paint to support their candidate.

It’s happened all over the country. Record-setting crowds packed the Moda Center in Portland, Oregon and thousands filled the DCU Center to see Trump in Worcester, Massachusetts. Everywhere these candidates go, people rush to see them.

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Lots of Small-Money Donations

Typically, leading Presidential campaigns are powered by big money donations, but that’s not the case for Trump and Sanders.

As Graphiq shows us below, Sanders and Trump are one and two, respectively in the amount of campaign donations under $200—a sure sign of grassroots support.

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Real Talk

How often do you watch and listen to a political speaking, and find yourself drifting off to sleep or reaching for your iPhone?

That rarely seems to be the case when Trump or Sanders are on the mic. You never quite know when Trump will insult an entire religion or ethnic group in one thirty-second soundbite. 

Not to be outdone, Sanders folksy and frantic style of speech has attracted attention—and plenty of jokes and memes—from all across the internet.

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 Slated for Failure

Since the first day that each candidate announced their campaign, the political intellectual and elite have told everyone that they just don’t stand a chance. Trump and Sanders are too controversial, their too radical and they are too inexperienced. How many times did political analysts or other talking heads say they would be out of the race before the first votes are ever cast?

Yet here we are, just a few days away from the first caucuses and primaries. Neither Trump nor Sanders are out of the race. Neither is on their dying breaths. They are thriving. And, as you’ll see in our next slide, they are winning

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Leading in Iowa (and New Hampshire!)

If the latest polls are to believed these massively unusual candidates—one socialist, one real estate magnate/reality tv star, both with tons of small donations, both told they never had any chance—will be making victory speeches in Iowa and New Hampshire soon.

According to CNN, Trump has an 11 point lead among Republicans and Sanders an eight point lead among Democrats in Iowa just a few days before the caucus.

And in New Hampshire, as you’ll see below,  Trump and Sanders have double digit leads as we approach the first true primary.

 
 

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