Taylor’s Union Support Seen as Plus in Lt. Gov’s Race Against McKee
Friday, October 17, 2014
Union support for Republican candidate for Lt. Governor Catherine Taylor is seen being seen as a plus by political experts, as Taylor faces Democratic opponent Dan McKee less than three weeks away.
Taylor, the former Director of Elderly Affairs who recently picked up the endorsement of the AFL-CIO, counts among her union backers the Rhode Island Federation of Teacher and Health Professionals, the Brotherhood of Correction Officers, and the Teamsters Local 251, among others.
"Having a major union endorsement for a statewide Republican candidate is a major plus for Taylor in a Democratic state. That gives her a platform to say she is a different kind of Republican and one who can reach across the aisle and assemble a bipartisan coalition, " said Darrell West, Vice President and Director of Governance Studies at the Brookings Institution and former head of the Taubman Center at Brown University. "I would expect [Tayor] to trumpet this on the campaign trail and use it to reach out to Independent and Democratic voters. There isn’t much of a downside for her because there aren’t that many Republicans who vote in a general election and most of them are not likely to vote for a Democratic candidate."
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLASTIn the most recent poll by Democratic consultant Joe Fleming, the pollster had McKee at 37%, Taylor at 27%, and their two other opponents -- Tony Jones and William Gilbert -- at 4.2%, leaving 31% of voters undecided on who'll they'll vote for on Election Day.
"These endorsements underscore and validate Catherine Taylor’s respectful bipartisan approach to leadership," said Taylor campaign manager Zach Sherman of the union support. "She is an appealing candidate to people of all political philosophies and Rhode Islanders find it refreshing and hopeful to encounter a candidate who will hear and honor every perspective."
The McKee campaign did not respond to request for comment on union endorsements on Thursday.
Parsing Numbers, Impact
"Political scientists talk about the “normal” vote, which is based on partisanship, and the “personal” vote which pulls voters away from their “normal” partisan tendencies because of something particular about the candidates or the issues of an electoral contest," said Roger Williams University Professor of Political Science June Speakman. "In the Rhode Island Lieutenant Governor’s race, Democrats and unaffiliated voters who lean Democratic are likely to be pushed away from McKee because of his position on charter schools and pushed towards Taylor because of these union endorsements. The endorsements allow loyal Democrats to feel comfortable abandoning their party for this one race. There may be some Republicans who are pushed away from Taylor because of these endorsements, but the numbers gained are likely to far exceed those lost."
McKee, who battled the teachers' unions to push through his Mayoral Academy charter school in Cumberland, has the support from a number of national education reform advocates.
Above: McKee addresses the Democratic Unity Dinner this week.
"As far as the teachers' unions are concerned, their support for Taylor is a referendum of being anti-McKee. However, you can't dismiss the support by other unions quite that easily,"said veteran political pollster and URI Professor Vic Profughi. "Part of that dynamic is strength of teachers in the overall union movement, and especially with AFL-CIO."
"[Taylor] is an attractive candidate in the field. She reminds me a lot of a Lila Sapinsley, Susan Farmer -- that tradition of being somewhat moderate in their party," said Profughi. "Straight shooting and sensible talking -- that resonates in particular, especially if there are doubts about the opponent."
Citing Past and Present
"It's no secret that Catherine Taylor joined the Chafee administration as a Republican. She's is also generally well liked, was narrowly defeated by Ralph Mollis in the SOS race, and is a shrewd campaigner. These qualities would ordinarily emerge as significant factors--at least more so than political endorsements. Because endorsements have going the way of political parties and is waning in influence, I don't think union backing as a Republican will make or break her," said Rhode Island College Professor of Communications Valerie Endress.
Endress noted that she perceived other races -- the Providence Mayoral race in particular -- as having an impact on "down-ticket" races.
"Granted, unions and their power and influence in RI is still a polarizing issue, but will it matter in this race? It's difficult to tell what factors will be significant in the down-ballot races. I'm not even sure that recent polling is an accurate reflection of how Rhode Islanders will ultimately vote in the down-ballot races," said Endress. "Because of the extraordinary attention paid to the Providence Mayoral race at the expense of other races, the election may turn on who can afford the most media ad buys during the zero hour and who has the best ground game in the Lieutenant Governor's race. By this time voters usually have at least base-line familiarity with statewide candidates and their positions. I don't believe this is the case this year. These last two weeks will matter more than the weeks prior combined."
At 28 days before election, Taylor reported $135,118.02 cash on hand; McKee reported $40,835.86.
"In essence, this race depends upon which of the two candidates can gain traction, and that probably boils down to who is spending their money wisely and who has the best closing strategy," said Endress. "In that context, Taylor's union endorsement may only be a blip on the voters' radar screen."
Editor's Note: Contributor Kate Nagle's father James Nagle serves as campaign treasurer for Catherine Taylor.
Related Slideshow: High Profile Endorsements in 2014 RI Election Cycle
With less than one week remaining until the Rhode Island primary, Republican gubernatorial candidates Allan Fung and Ken Block have each announced endorsements from high-profile in-state and national GOP figures -- joining an array of national political figures who have announced their support for candidates seeking office in Rhode Island this year. See this year's highest profile candidate endorsements below.
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