Will 19 Dead 4th Graders Finally Break the Logjam on Gun Safety? - Horowitz

Tuesday, May 31, 2022

Rob Horowitz, MINDSETTER™

 

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Biden visiting with families PHOTO: White House

 

Nineteen 4th graders and 2 teachers were shot in cold blood last week in Uvalde, Texas by a young man who celebrated his 18th birthday by legally purchasing 2 assault weapons. Ten days earlier, 10 people lost their lives in Buffalo at the hands of another 18-year-old who legally purchased an assault weapon, made it even more lethal by adding a high capacity ammunition magazine, and then used it on shoppers at a supermarket frequented by African Americans.

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These mass shootings are only the most recent of what has become, unfortunately, a regular occurrence in our nation.  Over the past 13 years, there have been 274 mass shootings in the United States, killing 1536 people and wounding an additional 983, according to Everytown Research & Policy.  Roughly 1-in- 4 victims were children and teens. 

Mass shootings understandably garner the most attention.  The cost of lives, however, is compounded by the daily carnage.  More than 40,000 people die every year in the United States from gun-related injuries—a combination of homicides, suicides, and accidents. Firearms are the leading domestic cause of death among children and teens with more than 2,100 annually perishing by gun homicide, according to the CDC.  

And the United States is an outlier among developed nations. “The US gun homicide rate is 26 times that of other high-income nations,” documented Everytown.  The main cause is our failure to enact common-sense gun safety measures which are the norm in the rest of the developed world.

The high costs in lives of maintaining the status quo are well-established and an evidenced-based path to curbing gun violence is well-marked.  The question once again before us; is the broad and genuine horror felt across the board in the United States as well as the mounting carnage from gun violence overall finally sufficient to disrupt the all too familiar pattern of short-term political momentum for action running aground as public attention turns to other matters and the grassroots and lobbying strength of the National Rifle Association (NRA) and the rest of the gun lobby succeeds in maintaining the national policy gridlock that remains their goal.

Recognizing at least the temporary power of the issue, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has given his blessing for some of his members to enter into negotiations with Democratic senators led by Chris Murphy (D-CT) on a potential compromise package.  While this is not the first time McConnell has adopted this approach in the wake of mass shootings, Senator Murphy is sounding cautiously optimistic that the outcome this time will be different.

It is possible if but not likely that a few incremental measures could garner the 10 Republican votes needed to overcome a filibuster. Passing Senator Diane Feinstein’s (D-CA) "Age 21 Act," for example, which would raise the minimum age for purchasing an assault weapon and high-capacity ammunition magazines to 21 is within the realm of possibility.  The current minimum age to purchase a handgun is 21, after all.   This would fall far short of the ban on assault weapons and high-capacity magazines that would do the most good. People ages 18 to 20, however, do commit a disproportionate share of homicides, so the measure is a step in the right direction.

Additionally, closing some background check loopholes and adopting a national red flag law, making it easier to remove guns from people deemed a danger to others or themselves, are under discussion.  Adding funding for mental health and stepped-up school security to a package may be a way to attract additional Republican voters as Murphy noted in appearances on the Sunday morning public affairs shows over the weekend.

All these measures are supported by a substantial majority of American voters. But, of course, that is not new. Yet in similar situations in the past, nothing has gotten done.

There are some reasons, however, to think that this time may be different. Country singer, Lee Greenwood of “God Bless the USA fame”, joined by his fellow headliners Larry Gatlin and Don McLean, backing out of performing at the NRA convention in Houston in the wake of the Uvalde killings, may be a canary in the cold mine.  More importantly, weakened by a series of scandals, financial troubles and internal strife, the NRA is not as powerful as it once was, while the gun safety organizations with a big assist from Mike Bloomberg have become much better funded and more effective.

To be sure, even in the wake of these tragedies, making even incremental gains on gun safety remains an uphill fight. Just maybe, however, the horrifying and avoidable deaths of 19 American children-- and the images of their shattered families--may finally be the catalyst to break the logjam, so we take some steps that will save at least some lives.  This can’t be too much upon which to hope.

Rob Horowitz is a strategic and communications consultant who provides general consulting, public relations, direct mail services and polling for national and state issue organizations, various non-profits, businesses, and elected officials and candidates. He is an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at the University of Rhode Island.


 

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