Rob Horowitz: Gingrich Back in Driver’s Seat
Tuesday, January 24, 2012
Newt Gingrich’s sweeping and impressive victory in the South Carolina Primary puts him back in the drivers’ seat in what now promises to be an extended battle for the Republican Presidential nomination Polling done since Saturday’s South Carolina results, show Gingrich now moving ahead of Romney in Florida—the next Republican contest.
Many observers believed that Gingrich was all but dead after his poor finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire-buried under an avalanche of negative Romney super PAC ads andGingrich’s own campaign mistakes.
Fortunately for Gingrich, one of his strong supporters, the Las Vegas billionaire Sheldon Adelson disagreed.. Adelson provided $6 million to Gingrich’s Super PAC for advertising in South Carolina, making it the first state the former Speaker was able to compete on a relatively even playing field with the better-funded Romney.
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Taken together, the negative ads launched by Gingrich’s Super PAC put a real dent into Romney. The ones attacking Romney for the fact that Bain Capital, his former company, had put people out of work, while Romney himself profited were somewhat effective. Other negative ads that went after Romney for his flip-flops on abortion, highlighting the fact that “Romney-care” paid for abortions, proved even more damaging in socially-conservative South Carolina.
However, Romney was hurt more by his responses to the stepped-up negative attacks, than the attacks themselves. In the two debates held before South Carolina, Romney seemed hesitant and uncertain on the basic question of whether he would release his income tax returns—an issue that gained salience precisely because of the attacks on Bain. And his attempt to equate any criticism of his performance at Bain Capital with an attack on the free enterprise system itself fell flat, even with Republican primary voters
Romney has made his private sector business experience his central distinguishing qualification to be President. As a result, he needs to be able to provide the specifics that reinforce the claim. It simply isn’t working for him to just wrap himself in platitudes. Republican primary voters, many of whom are also skeptical of Wall Street, want real answers.
Romney’ more fundamental problem remains that the conservative Republican primary electorate views him, despite his protestations, as a moderate. This has created the political space for one more Newt Gingrich resurrection.
Newt Gingrich understands this political moment perhaps better than anyone else. He has positioned himself against the elites in the political, media and Wall Street establishments, arguing that he is the best person in the field to bring about the fundamental changes that Republican primary voters want. Given his record of making significant changes as Speaker and his ability to articulate “big’ ideas, this argument is credible and strikes a responsive chord. Gingrich’s assertion that he is a ‘bold leader”-- while Romney is more of a cautious manager who will just tinker around the edges --rings true. His excellent debate performances in South Carolina, in which he used both Juan Williams and John King as props, enabled him to drive home his ability to forcefully take on the elites—in this case the media elites.
Of course, the nomination is far from decided. For Gingrich every day is a high-wire act; he is eminently capable of self-destruction. Further, the party establishment is terrified of him as the nominee, especially given his high unfavorable ratings with general election voters, and will pull out all the stops to defeat him.
Still, Gingrich’s candidacy fits the mood of the primary electorate much better than Romney’s and Gingrich has demonstrated he is far more skilled political performer. In addition, his victory in South Carolina is already making the cash register ring. In my book, this all now makes him the front-runner.
Rob Horowitz is a strategic and communications consultant who provides general consulting, public relations, direct mail services and polling for national and state issue organizations, various non-profits and elected officials and candidates. He is an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at the University of Rhode Island.
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