Look beyond the surface level and it's apparent that Lincoln Chafee's decision to throw his hat into the Presidential ring last week is a wise one.
In running for President, Chafee has everything to gain, and nothing to lose. If someone were to make a chart and list all the positives in one column, and the negatives in the other, the column with positives would be full and the column with negatives would be empty. It's a classic case of, "why not?"
Yet with Hillary Clinton amassing a financial juggernaut and a big polling lead that many believe gives her the inside track to the Democratic Presidential nomination, coupled with Chafee's unpopularity here in Rhode Island after a frustrating term as Governor, historically weak fundraising capabilities, and a quirky personality--the popular notion is that Chafee's decision to explore a presidential bid is foolish.
But in today's political and media climate, plausible victory is seldom the motivation behind a presidential bid. Instead, most candidates covet the ability to raise their national profile and enhance their marketability to sell books, speak at colleges and universities, and create opportunities for television appearances.
A candidates like Herman Cain, who was basically unknown on a national level before he ran for President in 2012, now has his own talk show with a national following. Rick Santorum, a Senator from Pennsylvania also enhanced his national profile by running in 2012, which led to lucrative speaking engagements. And former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, who sprang onto the national scene in 2008 with his long shot bid for the Republican nomination, landed his own radio show and television show on Fox News.
Chafee, out of a job after leaving the Governor's Post in January and is still a young 62 by all accounts, may be looking to increase his marketability on the national level. I'm not sure if Chafee has a media agent, but if he does, I'm sure this person is encouraging him to take the presidential plunge.
Idealism
On a more idealistic level, it gives candidates a chance to bring publicity to the issues that they care about and feel would otherwise go ignored.
Ron Paul, a once obscure Congressman of little renown from the Texas Gulf Coast has become a household name after making two long shot presidential bids as a Republican. When asked what he thought about his chances to actually win the race were, he would famously reply "that's the risk I take".
Chafee has strong feelings on a number of issues, ranging from the environment, to civil liberties, and aversion to foreign entanglements, and a run for President would give him an opportunity to bring those issues to the forefront.
Instant Credibility
With Clinton the perceived front runner, expect the media to take it easy on Chafee and her other challengers, at least as long as she is perceived to have such a commanding lead--especially if Chafee is willing to criticize Hillarly Clinton. That been more than obvious judging by Chafee's national media appearance thus far.
And nobody can deny that Chafee will be attractive to those who find themselves on the far left of the political spectrum, who are not happy with Clinton's centrism.
A No-Brainer
Let's not forget that on paper, Chafee has all the credentials to run for President. He's a former Warwick Mayor, Rhode Island Governor, and US Senator, Chafee has all the credentials and experience a candidate would need to make a strong case for the office. That will give him instant credibility with the national media.
In the end, once one gets beyond the fact that so many Rhode Islanders were unhappy with his term as Governor and assess the situation objectively, and it becomes apparent rather quickly that Chafee's decision to explore a presidential bid is, in fact, a no-brainer.
Russell Moore has worked on both sides of the desk in Rhode Island media, both for newspapers and on political campaigns. Send him email at [email protected]. Follw him on Twitter @russmoore713.
Related Slideshow: Grading the Chafee Administration
Vice President and Director of Governance Studies, Brookings Institution
Chafee Grade: A for honesty, B for fiscal reform, C for economic performance.
Administration wins: Governor Chafee’s best accomplishment was pushing the marriage equality bill into law. That is a signature achievement that forced him to overcome several high-profile opponents. In a small state that remains fairly conservative on social issues, that was a big step forward. Future generations will see that as a great demonstration of leadership on his part. Another landmark bill was the public pension reform. Working with other state leaders, he encouraged people to tackle the long term funding problems associated with state employees and helped the General Assembly adopt a landmark bill. It will save the state millions of dollars down the road and help put the state on a more sustainable path. He also deserves credit for running a very honest administration that did not engage in the corruption we have seen in the past.
Administration losses: His biggest challenge has been the economy. Rhode Island always is the first into recession and the last to come out, and this continues to be the case. The state’s economy has been slow to revive and lags the national recovery. It is hard to know what he could do to create jobs and lower the unemployment rate, but the fact that it remains stubbornly high has fueled discontent and made it difficult for people to feel good about the state’s direction.
Chafee Grade: B. Leading in today’s polarizing environment is not easy and we should thank those who step up to the plate with the best of intentions.
Administration wins: Successfully shepherding the Shared Nursing Education Facility at South Street Landing, thus setting the stage for significant knowledge economy investment in the region. This was a huge accomplishment, and we extend our congratulations.
Administration losses: It was unfortunate that the early days of his administration were rocky with sales tax proposals and litigation around 38 Studios which had the practical effect of dampening economic development activity. Relations improved substantially in the final years.
Administration wins: I will leave it to others to assign grades, but will say that it has been a privilege to work with Governor Chafee. He prioritized investment in education and workforce development, which will better prepare Rhode Island students and workers for the jobs of a modern economy. He emphasized regulatory reform and customer service, helping to change the culture at state agencies such as the Department of Environmental Management and the Division of Motor Vehicles. His strong environmental stewardship carries on the tradition of his father, and will leave a lasting legacy for generations of Rhode Islanders. He was never afraid to stand on principle, regardless of whether it was the politically opportune thing to do. He is upstanding and honest, and it was an honor to have served alongside him in government.
Administration wins: He has to be given some of the credit for the pension overhaul.
Administration losses: Unfortunately Lincoln Chafee has considerable difficulty stating clearly and succinctly what he wishes to say and seems to be overly successful in sticking his foot in his mouth. In addition, he gave the appearance of catering too much to “progressive” notions, and seemed almost totally incapable of working with the legislative leadership.
CEO, Rhode Island Center for Freedom and Prosperity
Chafee Grade: F
Administration wins: Not blocking the recent corporate and estate tax reforms.
Administration losses: Jobs and the economy. The state's relative near-bottom of the barrel rankings as compared with other states has not improved to any degree as the drag of increased spending levels and associated taxes continue to harm the economy.
Mr. Chafee apparently believes that low and moderate income families are better off surviving under public assistance programs, than they would thriving in a growth economy -- our center disagrees and believes that every family can enhance their quality of life if we can only get oppressive spend-and-tax policies out of way of our people and business.
OSTPA, a "Voice for the Taxpayers of Rhode Island"
Chafee Grade: N/A
Administration wins:
Administration losses: Governor Chafee duped RI citizens when he said "Trust Chafee". His political perspective and his actions reveal a disconnect between claiming to take proactive steps to improve RI's economic rankings while supporting his true progressive agenda laid out in his RhodeMapRI plan. The progressive vision aims to equalize disparities in income and housing under the guise of an economic development plan. Scary stuff. Chafee is leaving office without a solid economic plan, no jobs plan, persistently high taxes that squash the middle class and oppressive business regulations.The big question is how does Governor-elect Raimondo see it? Does she buy into this vision for RI? If so, it was certainly not a vision that was discussed on the campaign trail.
President, National Education Association Rhode Island
Chafee Grade: N/A. I hate to give ratings since he is leaving office and won’t have an opportunity to fix some of the major problems we still have and hopefully the new Governor can.
Administration wins: While many probably wouldn’t see his administration being all that successful, based on latest polls, especially in terms of jobs and growth, I do think he tried and got at least some promoting the benefits of Rhode Island and living here. Initially anyway, he pushed for the Department of Education to work with teachers, administrators and others to move public education forward but never addressed the fact that the overwhelming majority (based on the poll we did over a year and a half ago with the AFT) of teachers believed their views and insights were often ignored by RIDE and it was up to the General Assembly to correct the NECAP situation and teacher evaluation. From a personal viewpoint, he appointed me to the Board of Education which gave educators another voice there and that was and is important.
Historian and former Executive Director, Common Cause RI
Chafee Grade: C+
Administration wins: I deeply appreciated his commitment to equal marriage. People who claimed to speak in the name of God were vitriolic in legislative hearings I attended. Without a courageous governor and core of committed legislators, this overdue reform could not have passed. Historians may see his commitment to genuine pension reform as equally crucial. No state treasurer could have secured passage of the 2011 pension overhaul without the governor’s support.
Administration losses: I see him as an honest person and an ethical governor, but he failed to spend political capital in two key areas.
First, he should have pressed obstinate Senate leaders to let voters consider a constitutional amendment to bring the General Assembly back under the jurisdiction of the Ethics Commission. Now that Chafee's term has passed and voters have turned down a constitutional convention, lawmakers remain immune to prosecution even for blatant corruption.
Second, Gov. Chafee should have insisted that the Department of Children, Youth, and Families (DCYF) obtain accreditation. A law enacted in 2010 required DCYF to start work with the Council on Accreditation (COA) in 2011. The Chafee administration launched that process with a preliminary review (2012 report attached) but failed to follow through. As a result, vulnerable children suffer further abuses while in state custody. Thousands grow up feeling that no one sees or cares, and families (including both birth parents and foster parents) lack reliable support services. Professional accreditation raises the bar for universities, hospitals, police departments, and child protection agencies in other states. Why not Rhode Island?
Lawyer and RI Moderate Part gubernatorial candidate,
Chafee Grade: D. I usually avoid kicking a person when he is down, but I did give him that during the campaign.
Administration wins: I do not know the inside story, but I was at least interested with the break up with Bob Walsh after the NEA got him elected. This could be the greatest accomplishment or downfall, but without the inside story, I cannot tell which is which. I was also very skeptical of the "Trust Chafee" campaign promise.
Administration losses: His manner of governing is more suited to legislative rather than executive functions, and, as such, he couldn't approach the situation from a point that was required. He is a personable guy, just not suited for executive functions. Anyone can be Governor, it takes much more to be a good Governor and stay responsive to the people. It is ironic in a way that he once called me and the Cool Moose Party a party of one.
Professor of Political Science, Roger Williams University
Chafee Grade: N/A
Administration wins: I can say that a couple of his positives were to move the state away from the Studio 38 climate of insider politics, to work with Gen Treasurer Raimondo on the very difficult task of pension reform (whether or not one liked the result, at least they stopped kicking the can down the road), and his sensitivity to the needs of the municipalities. As a former mayor, the Governor checked in frequently with local mayors and town administrators to get a sense of their needs and how to address them. The clean air and water bond that was just approved by the voters was largely his initiative and an important legacy. He also worked hard to diversify appointments to boards and commissions.
