Greater Providence Region GDP 4th Highest in New England

Wednesday, November 27, 2013

 

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The U.S. Conference of Mayors released this week its annual report on metropolitan economies and gross metro product (GMP), and the greater Providence region, which includes Fall River and New Bedford, ranked 43rd overall in the U.S. in 2012 with a gross metropolitan product of $69.5 billion dollars, which ranked it fourth in the New England region for GMP.

“This report makes clear how critical metropolitan areas are to our nation’s economy and ongoing recovery. Cities and their metro economies account for over 90% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP); nearly 86% of the nation’s population; and almost 86% of all jobs. So if our metro areas  aren’t doing well, the entire country suffers,” said USCM President Scott Smith, Mayor of Mesa, AZ.

Boston-Cambridge-Quincy was tops in the New England region -- and ninth nationally -- with a GMP in 2012 of $336 billion; Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk was second at $86 billion.

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In addition, the Conference of Mayors report includes the GDPs of foreign countries on the list, showing that some metropolitan areas' gross product is greater than that of entire nations -- and shows that the Greater Providence metro region's GMP is greater than the annual GDP of the Dominican Republic ($58 billion), Luxembourg ($57 billion), and Croatia ($56 billion), to name just a few of those listed.

GDP, GMP

The report also shows real GMP growth rates for metro areas in the country, in annual percent change. After a .3 change in 2011, the Providence-New Bedford-Fall River area showed a 1.7 increase in 2012, and is slated to be at 1% growth in 2013, with a projection of 1.9% in 2014.

Urban analyst Aaron Renn recently pointed to GDP growth in Providence as one one of "Five Recent Data Points that are Good News For Providence," taking a look at a longer stretch as a positive indicator for the State's capital.

"Providence has been doing fairly well in its growth in per capita GDP," said Renn, noting that for the city, "Providence ranked #14 in per capita GDP growth between 2001 and 2011 (the maximum data range available). Its growth was 9.2% on a real (inflation adjusted) basis. The current per capita GDP is $37,081."

GoLocal asked Providence City Council members -- as well as Mayoral hopefuls -- what they saw as necessary to further increase the city's economic output, and the assets it currently has that should be recognized.

Council on the Record on Economic Growth

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Two City Council members noted the need to recognize that in order to be successful, Providence needed to look beyond its borders.

Luis Aponte, who has been on the Providence City Council for 15 years, said, "I think that if the focus in Providence is just within our borders -- we miss most our opportunities. If we measure economies, they're regional. We're connected to Boston as a jobs provider -- we need a regional view, and to look at opportunities within a regional context."

"Though census tracts group the city in a metro region with Fall River and New Bedford, Providence attracts people from a much broader area," said Bryan Principe, Councilman for Ward 13. "It has the right components to take advantage of any turnaround in the economy. Consider that; more people reside within a 75-mile radius of Providence than within a 75-mile radius of Boston; more designers reside within metro Providence than any other area outside of New York, while metro Boston has the highest concentration of high-tech workers outside of Silicon Valley. Consider also a robust transportation (commuter rail, highway) system with world class higher education. Taken together, Providence has unique assets that positions the area for robust growth."

Councilman Sam Zurier addressed what he saw as necessary to propel the Providence economy. "Support public schools to win competition with other school districts and the private schools to encourage middle class families to move to Providence and businesses to locate here. Develop a “wish list” for optimal development of I-195 land, share it with I-195 commission, and initiate search for best candidates. Support zoning changes to attract a vibrant downtown residential district."

Michael Solomon, the City Council President who is widely considered to be making a Mayoral run in 2014, emphasized as well the need for infrastructure, education -- and a "predictable business climate."

"We can improve our economy by increasing investment in infrastructure, putting our children first, and promoting a predictable business climate. Last year, we borrowed $40 million to repave 60 miles of the worst streets in Providence. We need to find a more consistent method of investment—such as a well-developed capital improvement budget—because private investment follows public infrastructure investment."

Mayoral Candidates' Vision

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In addition to the City Council, GoLocal asked the Mayoral field for 2014 for their views on actions necessary for increased economic development in the city.

Jorge Elorza, tenured Professor of Law at Roger Williams University and former Housing Court Judge, told GoLocal, "I believe in the power of networks. Let's support Innovation Centers and Incubators that are bringing talented entrepreneurs together and allowing them to exchange ideas with other innovators. No one knows what the next great industry will be but we must position ourselves to be ready to create it."

In addition, Elorza said for economic development, Providence needs to explore the export market. "Emerging markets are growing at rates over 10% across the globe. These markets present opportunities for us as we have a diverse population here that is already internationally-oriented. Let's bring together the diverse communities, manufacturers, designers and entrepreneurs and let's travel abroad to find new markets and create new trading partners, " he said.

Bretty Smiley, Chair of the Water Supply Board and the founder and owner of an election compliance and advocacy business, said that private-pubiic partnerships would be critical.  

"To grow our economy, we need to be creative, competitive, and attractive to new businesses. With a tight budget, little left to cut and nothing left to tax, it’s time to think about new ways to grow our way out of the challenges we face, and we can do this through public-private partnerships. The Greater Kennedy Plaza project organized by the Downtown Providence Parks Conservancy is a shining example of working with private companies and community partners to improve upon a public space in a way that is in the self-interest of surrounding businesses, and this same model can be applied to the construction of the streetcar line, the creation of an outdoor concert venue at the former “Shooters” site and more."

Recent entrant to the pool of Mayoral candidates Lorne Adrain, former chairman of the R.I. Board of Governors for Higher Education and currently a managing director at Ballentine Partners, a national wealth advisory firm.

"We need to be committed to designing, implementing and continuously improving an environment that is welcoming and inspiring as a place for entrepreneurship, innovation and makers/creators. Such an environment includes competitive and consistent tax policy, a world-class customer service system in city hall and a collection of resources that inspire and facilitate a wide range of business efforts. Getting this right will help more families to thrive and realize their dreams. When we do that, everything else gets easier." 

 

Related Slideshow: 10 Questions Taveras Has to Answer When Running for Gov of RI

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#10 Fundraising

Can Taveras Keep Up with the Big Boys and Girls in Fundraising?

In America today, one issue that is a factor in nearly every election is fundraising. To date, Taveras has yet to demonstrate any consistent ability to keep up with the leading fundraisers in RI.

Taveras will have to compete with General Treasuer Gina Raimondo, who has $2 plus million on hand and a likely run from Clay Pell (grandson of US Senator Claiborne Pell and whose wife is Olympic skater Michelle Kwan).

Raimondo is on pace to raise $5m and Taveras presently has just $692,000 on hand and would be on pace to raise less than $2 mliion. 

Pell's family has access to nearly limitless dollars - back in the 1990's Pell's grandfather was ranked as one of the wealthiest members of Congress.

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#9 Curse

Can Taveras Break the Providence Mayor's Curse?

For more than 60 years, no Providence Mayor has been successful running for Governor of Rhode Island. You have to go back to the 1950 election when Dennis Roberts was elected Governor.

Since Roberts, a number of Providence Mayors have taken their shot at running for Governor and each has failed mightily.

Most notably, Buddy Cianci's run against J. Joseph Garrahy - Cianci got less than 30% of the statewide vote.

Joe Paolino was expected to win the Democratic primary in 1990, but was beaten badly by Bruce Sundlun and then Warwick Mayor Frank Flaherty.

Sundlun went on to win the general election and Flaherty was later named to the state Supreme Court.

Taveras will have to break a very long curse.

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#8 Hire or Fire

Can Teachers Trust Taveras - and Will Voters Trust His Relationship with the Teachers Unions?

In the midst of the city's political meltdown, Taveras just into his first few months in office fired all the teachers in Providence.

Taveras received strong public support, but within months he capitulated to pressure from the teachers' unions.

Three years later, he is emerging as the candidate of the teachers' union leadership. Will teachers trust him in a statewide race and will voters trust him if he is perceived as too close to union bosses?

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#7 Hispanics

Will Hispanics Vote as a Block in the Primary for Taveras? Are They Influential Enough in the General?

Conventional wisdom is that Angel Taveras will get a big boost from the Hispanic voting block in the primary, but more recently Council members Luis Aponte, Danian Sanchez and Sabina Matos have all openly battled with the mayor on his tax increases and efforts to close pools in low income wards around the city.

While Taveras can rebound and the impact may be large in the primary, the percentage of voters who are Hispanic in the general election is just 7% according to Pew Research:

  • Rhode Island’s population is 12% Hispanic, the 13th largest Hispanic population share nationally.
  • There are 54,000 Hispanic eligible voters in Rhode Island—which ranks 35th in Hispanic eligible voter population nationally. California ranks first with 5.9 million.
  • Some 7% of Rhode Island eligible voters are Hispanic, the 13th largest Hispanic eligible voter population share nationally. New Mexico ranks first with 39%.
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#6 Temperament

Can Taveras Handle the Campaign Pressure and the Office Pressure of Governor?

Taveras had no experience as a chief executive in business or government before taking office in 2011 in Providence. He has increasingly gotten into some very non-productive scrapes.

In 2012, his law office delivered a document to GoLocalProv as part of a FOIA request and those documents included the social security number of every retiree of the City. Instead of taking responsibility he sent his lawyers to court to try to block GoLocal from writing about the mishandling of social security numbers. The judge ruled against Taveras.

In 2013, Taveras has tried to demolish a commuity swimming pool in South Providence because, according to Councilman Danian Sanchez, Sanchez would not vote for Taveras' tax increase.

Will Taveras be able to prove to voters he has the right stuff?

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#5 Base outside Prov

Can Angel Taveras Build a Political Base Outside of Providence?

While Taveras has a strong political base in Providence, it is unclear if he can build a strong political network in critical Democratic strongholds like Woonsocket, Pawtucket, East Providence, Johnston and North Providence.

It is well known that both Democratic Mayors in North Providence and Johnston have had a strained relationship with Taveras.

This strain has played out over critical matters like mutual emergency aid and in 2012, North Providence, Johnston and East Providence all cancelled emergency aid compacts with Providence.

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#4 Women Voters

Can Taveras Compete for Women Voters?

When Taveras ran for Mayor he won the critical block of East Side Democratic women. Part of his success with this critical block of voters was the support he enjoyed from Democratic power Myrth York. 

The two-time Democratic nominee for Governor went all in for Taveras in 2010, but she no longer is active in the inner circle and reportedly would have supported Governor Lincoln Chafee in the primary.

Taveras will need to compete with Raimondo who has already signed former EMILY's list bigwig Kate Coyne-McCoy.

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#3 Star Power

Can Taveras Keep Up with Clay Pell's Star Power?

In 2010, Taveras ran under the motto of "from Head Start to Harvard."  His claim on the American dream proved a successful juxtaposition to two Democrats who had the same political base - Federal Hill (Steven Costantino and John Lombardi).

Now, Taveras may face the fresh-faced Clay Pell. His bio exceeds Taveras as he can claim the legacy of his grandfather's work and hit the circuit with his superstar wife, Olympian Michelle Kwan.

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#2 Issues and Vision

Can Angel Taveras Articulate a Vision for Rhode Island?

Taveras earned good scores for managing the City of Providence's financial crises, but never seemed to develop major policies for economic development, schools, parking, crime, reducing the cost of government or improving the efficiency.
 
The Superman building's closure happened on his watch, technology company Dassault Systèmes is moving out of Providence, and no major employers were recruited into the city other than the scrap yard on Allens Avenue.
 
Taveras will need to define a forward looking vision for Rhode Island.
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#1 Crime and Education

Can Taveras Explain His Record on Crime and Education?

The biggest problem for Taveras is his record in Providence.
 
Most people care about the basics - their jobs, education for their children, how safe their neighborhood is.  These vary questions could be Taveras' Achilles' heel.
 
According to GoLocal's study of the FBI crime data, Providence is ranked #2 for violent crime per capita in Rhode Island.
 
The condition of Providence's schools may be worse. Of the 24 schools ranked as poor (de facto failing) in Rhode Island by the Department of Education, 6 of them were Providence Schools and in the rankings of the best high schools in the state, most of Providence's schools consistently litter the bottom of the rankings.
 
Taveras lead the city to win the $5 million Bloomberg award. But in a Governor's race one of Taveras' opponents is sure to ask, "Mr. Mayor, are you going to bring the same policies you used on crime and education in Providence to the rest of the state?"
 

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