Avedisian Could Be Vulnerable in Race for Mayor of Warwick

Monday, July 07, 2014

Kate Nagle, GoLocal Contributor

Warwick Mayor Scott Avedisian

Could incumbent Warwick Mayor Scott Avedisian face a tough battle in 2014?

Avedisian, who's been at the city's top post since 2000, could face a significant challenge in the GOP primary from political newcomer Stacia Petri, who is running on a platform opposed to the city's car tax, and critical of its schools.

"I don't know anything about her, I haven't met her," said Avedisian, who was on the Warwick City Council from 1990 to 2000 before being elected Mayor, carrying all nine wards and winning every polling station in the state's second largest city since then. "I've had primary opponents before. We always have a lot of work to do, we've been successful in the past, and we anticipate that we will be successful again this year."

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Former Warwick City Councilman and School Committee Chairman Bob Cushman, who looked at a ten year snapshot of the "impact analysis of Warwick's budgetary policy," said that he believes, however, that the Mayor is vulnerable.

"Clearly anyone can see that Warwick has some serious issues regarding the annual increases in city spending and the city sinking deeper and deeper into debt," said Cushman. "With respect to Mayor Avedisian facing a serious challenge in a GOP primary, this could be the year where all the stars align for a competent challenger to defeat him."

Critical Look

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Warwick City Hall

Cushman pointed to two areas in Warwick he saw as being of concern for the current Mayor in this year's re-election bid.

"Warwick schools are crumbling and the Mayor breaking his promise to release the 2006, $25 million in bonds he approved to be paid for by the city to fix schools is becoming a big issue to parents," said Cushman. "Warwick schools now pay for all building improvements out of the educational budget. No other school system has to do this."

Cushman continued, "Business isn't happy with another tax increase. This on top of the fact that the 2015 budget contains a structural deficit in the millions because the mayor is tapping the rainy day fund. The issues are there to expose the Mayor. The question is can a candidate education the public that there is finally an alternative?"

Petri, who bills herself as a "Warwick homeowner, lifelong Rhode Islander, and small business owner", kicked off her campaign being highly critical the incumbent Mayor.

“I have witnessed taxpayers repeatedly express their concerns over the fiscal mismanagement of our city and the hundreds of millions of dollars in debt associated with employee legacy costs that is siphoning needed dollars from every other area of the budget. The Mayor can no longer play his shell game and simply dismiss the issue,” said Petri, in her initial campaign release. “Every budget year that passes has the taxpayers experiencing the detrimental consequences for this lack of leadership.”

Parsing Politics

In 2010, Governor Lincoln Chafee won the Rhode Island Governor's race by less than 9000 votes statewide -- and beat GOP opponent John Robitaille in Warwick by just over 2000 votes.

"Mayor Avedisian supporting Lincoln Chafee for Governor over the GOP endorsed candidate John Robitaille in 2010 has left a real sour taste in some Republican who feel the Mayor cost the GOP the governor's seat," said Cushman. "From what I know, there will be some repercussions over that and hidden support for other candidates is certain."

Whether that opposition could translate into a win, however, left sides split on the debate. Cushman thinks that the competition of other high-profile races could allow an opponent with a strong ground game to prevail in the GOP primary.

"With high profile races in the democrat party for Governor, Lt. Gov, and Treasurer, most independent voters who tend to vote Democrat will most likely vote in the democrat primaries. That will leave the field on Republican voters in the Warwick GOP mayoral race extremely small," said Cushman.

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Who will turn out in the GOP primary in Warwick -- and who will prevail?

"A new candidate with limited resources in terms of cash and volunteers could mount an effective grass roots door to door campaign targeting these voter," Cushman continued. "For the first time ever people are noticing the urban decay in the city and they are mad. The Mayor heard a mouth full during the past budget hearing from voters upset over the pot holes, and in some cases dangerous conditions of Warwick roads."

GoLocal Mindsetter and political consultant Russ Moore pointed out the challenges inherent in mounting a winning campaign against the current Mayor, in light of higher profile races.

"Even if [Petri] does have the resources to mount a serious campaign (at least $200,000) it will still be hard to gain any traction thanks to all the attention that will be paid to the Governor and Providence Mayoral race. That fact will make it nearly impossible to surmount all of the name recognition Avedisian has thanks to being mayor for 15 years," said Moore.

"Warwick is in very bad financial shape, with unfunded healthcare liabilities exceeding $246 million dollars and serious pension liabilities as well. However, Warwick is very much like the thinnest kid at Fat Camp. When you line it up against communities like Providence, Woonsocket, West Warwick, Coventry, Pawtucket, etc., it really doesn't look that bad, and therefore doesn't attract as much attention."

Party Dynamics

"The Warwick GOP Party has been stronger in days gone by. In its most recent endorsement for governor, 22 votes were cast out of a possible 81 people. Each Ward Committee in Warwick is authorized to have 9 members and 5 alternate members," said former Warwick GOP committee members -- and Senate hopeful -- Ray McKay, who currently spearheads the Rhode Island Republican Assembly (RIRA). "So obviously the raw numbers point out that there is a structural issue within Warwick in building and sustaining any City GOP Committee momentum."

Avedisian said that he supports Cranston Mayor Allan Fung in the Rhode Island GOP gubernatorial primary. "I've supported Allan from early on, even before Block got into the race," said Avedisian.

While Fung hasn't made an announcement on an endorsement in the Warwick race, his camp said they expect to issue one shortly. "Mayor Fung will make an endorsement soon in the Warwick Mayor's race," said Rob Coupe with the Fung campaign.

Jeff Britt, spokesperson for GOP candidate Ken Bloc, said they haven't yet made a decision. "We have no plans to endorse in the Warwick primary at this time. But that can change," said Britt.

Related Slideshow: 7 Strategies for Rhode Island Economic Development in 2014

What will it take to move the Rhode Island economy forward in 2014? GoLocal talked with elected officials, candidates, and leaders for their economic development plans in the coming year.

Below are key elements of the economic priorities for Governor Lincoln Chafee, Speaker of the House Gordon Fox, Senate President M. Teresa Paiva-Weed, House Minority Leader Brian Newberry, gubernatorial hopefuls General Treasurer Gina Raimondo and Ken Block, and RI Center for Freedom and Prosperity's Mike Stenhouse.

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Governor Lincoln Chafee

"My goal is to have the state continue to focus on the fundamentals. We will invest in education, workforce development and infrastructure , and provide aid to cities and towns to lessen the burden on property taxpayers. I’m confident that these investments and our focus on the basics will allow Rhode Island to exceed Moody’s predictions.”

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Speaker Gordon Fox

"Among the many pieces of legislation the House will address will be issues of higher education affordability, expanding apprenticeship opportunities, and offering help to our manufacturers. We will also look closely at our tax structure to make sure we are competitive with our neighboring states, including the corporate tax and the estate tax, and I will carefully review the recommendations of the commission studying our sales tax.”

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Senate Pres. Paiva-Weed

Greg Pare, spokesperson for the Senate President, said that the Senate is planning to issue recommendations soon on workforce development initiatives to address the skills gap among Rhode Island job seekers.

"An example of a proposal anticipated in that report is the elimination of state’s Indirect Cost Recovery on the Job Development Fund, which is about $1.2 million this year. Those funds would be directed towards job training and skills development programs to provide immediate impact and help workers gain the skills necessary to succeed in today’s economy."

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Gen. Treasurer Raimondo

"To grow our economy, we need to make Rhode Island a leader in manufacturing again. Great things can happen at the intersection of government, higher education, and the private sector. Rhode Island is lucky to have thriving institutions in each of these three sectors, and we need to foster collaboration among them to find solutions to our challenges, and spark our economy.

By promoting partnerships in high-growth areas, [Rhode Island Innovation Institute] will help grow our manufacturing base, and create new, high-quality jobs."

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Ken Block

"First, we need to fix Rhode Island’s broken Unemployment Insurance program. The state’s Unemployment Insurance tax, paid by employers, is ranked worst in the country by the Tax Foundation. It is one of the factors that makes Rhode Island an uncompetitive place to do business. Also, it is inherently unfair that a large group of businesses are effectively subsidizing the payrolls of a small group of businesses who misuse the system. There is a simple change to state law that can fix this problem."

"Rhode Island’s temporary disability tax (TDI) is broken, and places an unnecessarily high tax burden on Rhode Islanders. This tax, paid for by employees, will be reduced by changing the way we manage the program. As Governor, I will substantially reduce the cost of purchasing this insurance by requiring that Rhode Island’s program adhere to national norms."

"To best encourage new job creation, I propose the following tax incentive: exempt from future capital gains taxes any new investments in Rhode Island-based businesses. This change would create a powerful incentive for investors who are deciding where to locate a new business, or where they relocate an existing one. This proposal has the potential change the economic playing field for Rhode Island."

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Minority Leader Newberry

“It would be overly ambitious to set being #1 as a goal right now, but we think 25, the middle of the pack, is a reasonable goal to set, one we think we should pursue, and one we can achieve,” said Newberry. "One of the initiatives is a requirement that every bill receive a fiscal evaluation before it can be heard by committee, better insuring that legislators know the real cost of the legislation they are acting on."

"Another proposal would exempt social security income from RI state income tax, making Rhode Island more tax-friendly for our seniors and keeping them here rather than migrating to more tax-friendly states."

“Strong action is way overdue here. Nearly 60% of Rhode Islanders now believe that the state is headed in the wrong direction. We think they’re right, and our central goal is to get it turned around."

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Mike Stenhouse

"As part of the Center's 2014 Prosperity Agenda we recommended that the state:

Repeal or rollback of the state’s regressive sales tax; or the requirement that families have no choice on what schools best educate their children; or punitive estate taxes that drive wealthy people to other states; or restrictions on out-of-state companies to sell health insurance in RI; or the minimum franchise tax, which stifles entrepreneurship; or corporate welfare, to level the playing field; or even renewable energy mandates that drive up costs for every family and business …"

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