NFL Championship Weekend Preview
Saturday, January 18, 2020
Home sweet home.
In the NFL, on Championship Sunday, with a chance to advance to the Super Bowl on the line, just how big is that home-field advantage? Well, let’s just say it’s HUGE!
In the last six years, home teams are an amazing 10-2. But let’s take it a step further. Before the Patriots and Rams won on the road last season in Kansas City and New Orleans respectively, teams playing in front of the home folks were 10-0 during that same time period. The last time a road team had won before the 2018 season was in 2012 when both Baltimore and San Francisco pulled upsets over New England and Atlanta to move on to Super Bowl XLVII.
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLASTWant more numbers? Just twice in the past decade has the #1 seed in the NFC won the Super Bowl – 2017 Eagles and 2013 Seahawks. Over in the AFC, where the top-seeded Ravens have already been dispatched, it’s happened three times – Patriots in 2014 and 2016 and the Broncos in 2015.
So, keep that in mind when you go about making your predictions for this upcoming Sunday’s doubleheader. Keep this in mind as well. There are NO weather concerns, according to the Weather Channel, as it looks clear and cold in Kansas City with temperatures in the 20’s while it’s very comfortable, sunny and temps in the 60’s by the Bay in Santa Clara.
So, let’s get to the games! Odds courtesy of OddsShark.com
AFC Championship
#6 Titans at #2 Chiefs (Sunday 3:05pm on CBS – Chiefs favored by 7.5)
The formula over the past few weeks has been pretty simple for the Titans as they’ve marched through upsets in New England and Baltimore in these AFC Playoffs. First, fun the ball heavy with Derrick Henry, who’s averaged 32 carries and 196 yards (96 total carries for 588 total yards) in his past three games. Second, timely touchdown passes by quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who’s thrown for only 160 yards in two victories. Finally, excel on red-zone defense – limiting the Patriots and Ravens to a combined 2 for 7, 29% in scoring chances inside the 20-yard line while ranking 28th during the regular season at nearly 63%.
On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs are in your face, pedal-to-the-metal type offense with Patrick Mahomes airing it out to the tune of five touchdown passes in what seemed like six seconds against Houston. Granted, the Chiefs had to have some urgency down 24-0 in the second quarter, but their offense over the past two seasons has been one of high-power and scoring at will.
The question this week will be can the Titans do to the Chiefs what they did to both the Patriots and more-so, the Ravens. You could argue that the Patriots offense was without the weaponry of the Ravens, so that might have been expected. What wasn’t expected was Tennessee holding Baltimore to just 12 points, allowing the Ravens to score just once in the red zone. The difference in this one may be Kansas City’s ability to score from anywhere on the field so they won’t be so reliant on cashing in on their opportunities from inside the 20-yard line.
In the team’s earlier meeting back in week 10, a 35-32 come-from-behind victory by the Titans in Tennessee, Henry ran the ball 23 times for 188 yards and 2 touchdowns. On the other side of the ball, Patrick Mahomes threw for 446 yards and 3 touchdowns. Tennessee could not get a handle on Tyreek Hill, who caught 11 passes for 157 yards and a touchdown.
One thing to keep an eye on – 3rd and 4th down conversions – the money downs! Can each team keep the other off the field by moving the chains? The Chiefs convert on almost half of their third-down conversions, 47.6% in the regular season as opposed to 37.8% for the Titans. On fourth down, KC’s picked up 60% (6 for 10) of its chances while Tennessee is just 28.6% (4-14).
The Titans have won four straight against the Chiefs, including three straight at Arrowhead Stadium. One of those wins came in the Wild Card Round in 2017, 22-21 as then Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota, now a backup to Tannehill, rallied them from a 21-7 deficit.
The Titans will win if – Their time of possession is TWICE that of the Chiefs. Ryan Tannehill throws for 2+ touchdowns.
The Chiefs will win if – They keep Derrick Henry under 30 carries and 150 yards.
Prediction – Chiefs 31-20
NFC Championship
#2 Packers at #1 49ers (Sunday 6:40pm on FOX – 49ers favored by 7.5)
On paper, the field tilts heavily towards San Francisco. On both sides of the ball, the 49ers were better than the Packers during the regular season. The numbers don’t lie. The 49ers offensively ranked 4th in total yardage (381.1 yards per game), 2nd in points scored (29.9 points per game) and 2nd in rushing (144.1 yards per game) while the Packers were just 18th (345.5 yards per game), 15th (23.5 points per game) and 15th (112.2 yards per game) respectively. Conversely on defense, San Francisco ranked 2nd in yards allowed (281.8 yards per game) and 8th in points allowed (19.4 points per game) while Green Bay ranked 18th (352.6 yards per game) and 9th (19.6 points per game) in the same categories. So, why do the Packers have a chance? Turnovers! Green Bay is a +12 in turnover margin for the regular season while the Niners are just +4. The Packers' ability to change field position, momentum and gain an extra possession during the game will be a key factor.
In the team’s meeting back in week 12, the Niners were the one coming up with the early turnover, turning a first-quarter Aaron Rodgers fumble into an early 7-0 lead. Before Green Bay hit halftime, it was already 23-0 49ers en route to an easy 37-8 victory. In that one, quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo netted his best passer rating, 145.8 of the season, completing 14-20 passes for 253 yards and 2 touchdowns. If he does that again, the Niners could be NFC Champions (possible spoiler alert!)
The teams have met seven times in the playoffs with the Packers holding a 4-3 edge, although the Niners have won the last two postseason meetings with the last one coming in the 2013 NFC Wild Card Game, 23-20.
You have to wonder if there’s a breakout game coming from Rodgers. He’s thrown for over 250 yards just once (week 17 vs. Lions) in his past nine games. That’s rare from a QB who we are accustomed to throwing it around to the tune of 300-400 yards on a weekly basis. But then again, the Packers have gone 14-3 this season with Rodgers netting 26 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions along with 4,002 yards. So, the balance has been working for them. Yet, beware as the 49ers defense was top-ranked against the pass in the regular season and limited the Vikings to just 21 yards on the ground last week in the Divisional Round. So, maybe it’s time for Rodgers to return to his wheeling-dealing, unpredictable self, mixing in his scrambling ability with that dangerous right arm.
The Packers will win if – they can force Jimmy Garoppolo into two turnovers.
The 49ers will win if – Jimmy Garoppolo throws for 2 touchdowns and 250+ yards.
Prediction – 49ers 24-21
Super Bowl LIV in Miami Prediction – Kansas City vs. San Francisco
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