Ukraine’s Real Energy Lesson: Accelerate Transition From Fossil Fuels

Tuesday, March 22, 2022

Rob Horowitz, MINDSETTER™

 

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President Zelensky PHOTO: Ukraine government

Republican politicians, Fox News hosts and the oil industry itself are combatively asserting that the invasion of Ukraine shows the importance of expanding United States oil production and postponing the phase-out of fossil fuels. This misleading punditry is often accompanied by critical references to the Biden Administration’s cancellation of the Keystone Pipeline—which even if it had proceeded would not have necessarily resulted in the bringing of one more gallon of oil to the global market. And any boost in our domestic supply would not have occurred until the pipeline was completed, which would still have been several years away, doing nothing to change the short-term rise in oil prices.

Similarly, the opening-up of more drilling on public lands--another favorite talking point of the heat up the planet at any cost crowd--would not yield an increase in production until long after the current crisis is resolved.   

The reality that this sea of misinformation obscures is that the United States remains the number one producer of oil and natural gas in the world. As a result, we were able to stop importing the small percentage of our supply that came from Russia, since the Biden administration and the American public were willing to absorb a higher price at the pump.  The Europeans, however, are highly dependent on Russian oil and natural gas. Until the transition to non-carbon producing energy is further along, they will remain highly dependent. There is no way in the short-term or the long-term that the United States can substantially fill that gap.

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That is why the real energy lesson that Ukraine provides is that an important strategic goal of the United States should be to work to accelerate the global transition underway to renewable non-carbon producing energy. No matter how much we increase our production of oil and natural gas in the United States, we can not come close to fulfilling the energy needs of a world that remains dependent on fossil fuels. As long as fossil fuels comprise a large percentage of the world’s energy supply, malign actors such as Russia, the world’s number 3 oil producer, and Iran, as well as other middle eastern autocracies, such as Saudi Arabia, will continue to have disproportionate influence in world affairs. Simply put, most of the oil in the world is located in nations that do not share our values.

The other inescapable reality that the drill-baby-drill crowd never reckons with is climate change. If you listen to the commentary on Fox News, for example, the issue is usually framed as the Biden Administration bowing to the synonymous and in their view interchangeable, “progressives,” “Green New Deal supporters” and “radical environmentalists.”  The scientific consensus that accelerating our transition from carbon-producing fossil fuels is the only way to avoid the worst consequences of a warming planet is rarely-- if ever-- mentioned.

This scientific consensus that the timeline for decisive action on climate change is narrowing is detailed in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, released at the end of February. “There is a brief and rapidly closing window to secure a liveable future on the planet," Hans-Otto Portner, co-chair of the IPCC working group that generated the report, told Reuters. "We need to live up to this challenge." This report as with its predecessors received scant attention on Fox News and in other conservative and policy circles.

For now, there may need to be some trade-offs to get more oil immediately on the market. This is what is behind the administration’s outreach to Venezuela and is part of the calculation in moving as rapidly as possible to put the Iranian nuclear agreement back in place. Unlike the proposals for upping domestic drilling, these have the potential to put more oil back on the market right away, helping to curb price increases.

The way forward, however, is well-marked. For a more secure world and for a habitable planet for our children, we must accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels.

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Rob Horowitz is a strategic and communications consultant who provides general consulting, public relations, direct mail services and polling for national and state issue organizations, various non-profits, businesses, and elected officials and candidates. He is an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at the University of Rhode Island.

 

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