Russell Moore: Raimondo vs. Taveras vs. Pell?
Monday, October 28, 2013
We’re still more than 10 months away from next year’s primary, but Providence Mayor Angel Taveras became the first official Democrat candidate in the race for Governor today.
The Taveras announcement sets up a clash of the titans scenario that will delight politics junkies like myself. With every passing day, it’s looking like the race for the Democratic Primary Nomination will be a three way matchup between Taveras, General Treasurer Gina Raimondo, and Clay Pell, the wealthy grandson of former Senator Claiborne Pell.
All three candidates have their own sets of strengths and weaknesses.
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLASTTaveras, the popular first-term Providence Mayor brought the city back from the financial precipice and has an inspiring rags-to-riches story. The Head Start to Harvard slogan he used in his Mayoral bid will likely prove an effective messaging strategy once again. Make no mistake about it: Taveras will be a force to reckon with in the Democratic Primary.
Money matters
The major problem for Taveras is money. Fundraising numbers will be released by October 31, but as of the last reporting period, Taveras had roughly $700,000 in campaign cash. One of his primary opponents, General Treasurer Gina Raimondo, had about $2.1 million. That means she can outspend him 3-1. And sources for the Raimondo campaign say she hauled in well over $400,000 last fundraising quarter—which will widen her financial advantage.
Raimondo’s detractors will point out that when you’re administration of the pension fund has it paying $70 million in fees—when the previous Treasurer, Frank Caprio (who will be a Treasurer candidate next year)—was paying about $20 million, it’s rather easy to raise money. Those folks should remember an old saying: don’t hate the player, hate the game. Let’s not forget, without fundraising—we’ll become an oligarchy pretty quickly. Only rich people will be able to afford campaigns.
Earlier last week, Taveras called on Raimondo to disavow financial contributions from so-called “super pacs”, the existence of which was enabled by the now infamous Citizens United Court decision. Riamondo brushed aside the idea and suggested there’s some hypocrisy on Taveras’ part by pointing out that he’s benefited from attacks against her by third parties—namely public sector unions.
Can Raimondo take the heat?
Raimondo finds herself in a unique predicament. Her biggest asset—proposing and shepherding pension reform—is also her greatest liability. Thanks to her leadership on that issue, she faces stout opposition from the state’s teachers’ public school teachers unions and state workers, who believe that she proposed pension cuts solely to benefit her Wall St. backers—not out of concern for the fiscal health of the pension plan.
There’s a voting bloc out there who will support anyone but Raimondo. But with the entrance of Pell into the race, that voting bloc could be split between two candidates, he and Taveras. That could provide Raimondo the boon she needs to prevail when all is said and done. Raimondo will also benefit by being the only woman in a three-person race. And if the primary gets ugly, and it will, her support amongst females will strengthen.
All that being said, Pell’s entry into the race, first and foremost, benefits himself. Pell comes from a wealthy family, making fundraising a non factor for him the same way it was for Lincoln Chafee in 2010. Given that his grandfather was a US Senator for decades and has the main bridge in Newport named after him—not to mention the federal grants that so many Americans use to go to college—he has plenty of name recognition. He has a celebrity wife in Michelle Kwan, and connections to the Obama administration.
Pell for Governor?
Let’s not go putting him in the statehouse just yet, however.
Pell has his own set of weaknesses that he’ll have to address. For instance, does he have any experience that would engender him to the state’s top governmental post? And what’s with this unwillingness to speak with the press thus far—is that beneath him?
And is his status as elite an asset or a liability in this election? Could this be the election that Rhode Islanders decide they’re tired of voting for candidates with massive personal wealth and political pedigrees? Governor Lincoln Chafee’s paltry approval ratings that forced him to step aside does not bode well for wealthy candidates from political dynasties.
Two weeks ago, Clay Pell was seen riding RIPTA. I guess he was interested in experiencing how the other 99 percent gets by firsthand. How thoughtful! And it’s interesting, if not disconcerting, to see that Pell appeared and spoke before the National Education Association leadership last week, but still hasn’t bothered to speak to the press. One would think that Pell knows he can reach a larger audience by speaking to the press instead of certain political interest groups. Apparently, first thing is first, and for Pell, that’s special interest groups.
If Pell wants to be Governor, one would hope that he has some compelling ideas and leadership skills. Just showing up ain’t enough, Mr. Pell.
To make history, or not?
Further, both Raimondo and Taveras can and will point out that a victory by either would make history. Raimondo will remind women voters that a Raimondo victory would mark the first time in the state’s history that a woman occupied the state’s top job. Taveras would be the state’s first Latino Governor. Both have actually needed public transportation in their lives.
When Pell does get into the race, expect to hear plenty about the modest beginnings of Taveras and Raimondo. Both will argue that they had to fight for and earn everything they’ve ever had in a tough world—a contrast to Pell.
There’s one thing for certain in this uncertain race—it will be a delight to political observers. Given all the variables, the race will be as interesting as it is hard to handicap. Rhode Island always delivers on the politics front.
A native Rhode Islander, Russell J. Moore is a graduate of Providence College and St. Raphael Academy. He worked as a news reporter for 7 years (2004-2010), 5 of which with The Warwick Beacon, focusing on government. He continues to keep a close eye on the inner workings of Rhode Islands state and local governments.
Related Slideshow: 10 Questions Taveras Has to Answer When Running for Gov of RI
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