Ohio Results Show Continuing Salience of Abortion Protections - Horowitz
Tuesday, August 15, 2023
In what both sides well-understood was a proxy fight on abortion, Ohio voters last week resoundingly rejected an effort to make it more difficult for a reproductive rights’ constitutional amendment, slated to be on the ballot in November, to pass. Issue 1, which would have raised the threshold for the passage of a constitutional amendment from a simple majority to 60%, was defeated by 57% to 43%.
The low turn-out that the Ohio Republican establishment and the pro-life forces were counting on when they picked an early August date for the referendum failed to materialize. The motivation of Ohio voters to safeguard a woman’s right to choose produced a robust turnout. More than 3 million Ohioans cast their ballots, nearly doubling the turnout for the 2022 primary elections for US Senate, US House, governor and various other state offices.
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The pro-choice side was boosted by the fact that in 2019 Ohio passed a sweeping abortion ban that the overturning of Roe V. Wade made operative. It is currently paused based on a court challenge, but even if it ends up being invalidated, the abortion restrictions it contains reflects the views of the dominant Republican majority in the state legislature. Without a constitutional amendment protecting abortion rights, Ohio women in all likelihood will end up in nearly all cases denied access to the procedure.
Once a swing state, known as a national bellwether, Ohio is now solidly red.. The results once again show that abortion rights in the wake of the Dobbs decision are a motivating issue not for just Democrats, but for a significant slice of Independents and a chunk of Republican women. Since Dobbs, referendums backing abortion protections have passed in 3 other red States, Kansas, Kentucky and Montana, as well as a swing state, Michigan. The pro-life side has yet to win a referendum in any state.
Abortion was also a key factor in the disappointing performance of Republicans in the 2022 mid-term elections. When asked in exit polls, which issue was most important to their vote, nearly 3-in-10 midterm voters chose abortion, roughly as many as selected inflation.
Polling conducted by PRRI before the mid-terms showed that the percentage of Americans who believe abortion should be legal in all or most cases who say they will only vote for a candidate who shares their views on abortion more than doubled in the wake of Dobbs, increasing from 15% to 34%. On the other hand, the percentage of Americans who believe abortion should be illegal in all or most cases who say they will only vote for a candidate who shares their views on this issue stayed about the same, moving from 29% to 31%--within the survey’s margin of error.
When abortion was legal and available throughout the land, the political energy on the issue was on the pro-life side. Since Dobbs, that energy has predictably reversed with pro-choice voters more motivated to cast their votes based on candidates’ position on the issue and more likely to become politically active. This political advantage is compounded because a substantial majority of Americans believe “abortion should be legal in most cases.”
Despite mounting electoral setbacks, Republican elected officials have failed to adapt to this new political reality. As the Ohio results showed, if they continue to do so, it will be at their peril.
Rob Horowitz is a strategic and communications consultant who provides general consulting, public relations, direct mail services and polling for national and state issue organizations, various non-profits, businesses, and elected officials and candidates. He is an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at the University of Rhode Island.
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