Can Robitaille Really Win?
Friday, October 29, 2010
Can John Robitaille win the race for governor? That question has become more relevant and less hypothetical after a flurry of polls that show the Republican candidate could be in second place.
Darrell West, a former political science professor at Brown University, said Robitaille has emerged as a threat to independent Lincoln Chafee. “Chafee clearly is the frontrunner for the governor’s seat,” West, now a vice president at the Brookings Institution, said. “But he can’t be complacent. John Robitaille has gained ground over the last month, so Chafee needs to pay attention to his GOP rival to make sure he doesn’t squeeze past him for victory.”
The WPRI 12 poll released yesterday showed Robitaille and Caprio tied at 26 percent, with Chafee ahead at 33 percent. The day before, a NBC 10-Quest Research poll showed Robitaille had taken second place, with 28 percent support. Chafee—who was in second place in the previous NBC 10 poll—was at 35 percent while Caprio was at 25 percent. That poll was taken after Caprio’s headline-making remarks that President Obama could “shove it.”
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLASTRobitaille and Chafee on the rise
“Recent days have seen dramatic changes in the complexion of the governor’s race and it is likely that Robitaille and Chafee benefited and Caprio has suffered,” said Tony Affigne, a professor of political science at Providence College. “Robitaille may very well earn more votes than Caprio but it still seems unlikely at this date that Robitaille can overtake Chafee.”
Quest Research pollster Victor Profughi said Robitaille was drawing much of his additional support from undecided voters who had made up their minds in the past week or two. But he said the race remains “absolutely wide open” with 10 percent of voters undecided in his poll—that’s 15 percent undecided if leaners are included in that group.
But Marion Orr, a political scientist at Brown University, said there just may not be enough time for Robitaille to close the gap with Chafee. “That’s the challenge—Tuesday is around the corner,” Orr told GoLocalProv. “Whether he can move those numbers higher I think is questionable, but not impossible.”
Not enough time, not enough voters?
Even if Robitaille did have more time, Affigne doubted that he would be able to overtake Chafee. He said that Chafee’s base of support had been the most stable throughout the campaign—unlike the other two leading candidates.
“For Robitaille to win he needs Caprio to fall a little farther down,” said WPRI-12 pollster Joseph Fleming, the president of Fleming & Associates. “Does he have a chance?... He’s within striking distance. The question is, is there enough time?”
Robitaille needs to go after Caprio
“I think he has to cut into the Caprio voters and the undecided voters,” Fleming added. “I don’t see him getting Chafee supporters.”
Fleming said Robitaille needs to pick off two groups of voters from Caprio: Republicans and conservative Democrats. Caprio is currently drawing 12 percent of the GOP vote while Robitaille has just 5 percent of Democrats, according to Fleming.
He said Robitaille also needs to win over more undecided voters—who constituted 11 percent of the respondents in his survey. Most of those voters are independents, aged 40 to 49, and tend to be women, according to Fleming.
GOP chairman not ‘fully confident’
The latest polls may have been good news for his party, but GOP Chairman Giovanni Cicione yesterday remained cautiously optimistic about where the race was going. “This is going to be a neck and neck race down to the last minute,” Cicione said. He said Robitabille is vying for votes on two fronts: not only does he have to convince voters in the middle to come over to the Republican side, but he also has to keep voters in his base from breaking away to Caprio.
“In a three-way race with a former Republican and a wannabe Republican, I have to be guarded,” Cicione said. “If this race was Myrth York and John Robitaille, I would be fully confident.”
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