Lardaro Report: Current Conditions Index Report Rises in December

Monday, February 16, 2015

 

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University of Rhode Island economics professor Leonard Lardaro

The promising economic performance of Rhode Island’s economy during the third quarter seemed to unwind as we moved closer to the end of 2014. The Current Conditions Index for both October and November was 58 (note: November was revised lower). Were we once again failing to sustain promising momentum, diverging from what was happening at the national level? Judging by the December performance of the CCI, it is premature to conclude that things are getting worse. For December, the CCI rose back to 75, and it did so with a number of very strong indicator performances. Better yet, for only the second time in quite a while, the CCI managed to beat its year-earlier value. Furthermore, while the payroll employment data appeared to weaken during the fourth quarter, I expect the upcoming data revisions to eliminate the essentially stagnant employment levels contained in the published data for the last four months of 2014, along with the “mystery decline” for October.

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Therefore, at this point, my conclusion from last month, that in spite of accelerating national economic activity, Rhode Island’s recovery has failed its first test of becoming more broadly based, must again be put on hold. The positives of stronger national growth and declining energy prices will hopefully pull Rhode Island along with the national economy in 2015. That’s a New Year’s wish. It will be up to our newly elected officials to make this a New Year’s resolution.

In December, four of the five leading indicators contained within the Current Conditions Index improved, while the other failed to improve based on a combination of technical reasons and an extremely difficult comp to beat from last December. Total Manufacturing Hours, which measures strength in our manufacturing sector, rose for the first time following three consecutive monthly declines (+1.8%). More impressively, December’s value managed to exceed its value of last December, where it had risen by over 4 percent. Along with this, the Manufacturing Wage declined yet again, for the tenth consecutive time, by an absurd 6.2 percent. Single-Unit Permits, a very volatile indicator that reflects new home construction, rose at a double-digit rate (+14.4%) following two months of declines. Viewed along with our state’s manufacturing performance in December, the momentum provided by Rhode Island’s goods- producing sector may not be moderating after all.

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Employment Service Jobs, which includes temporary employment and is a prerequisite to employment growth, rose in December (+0.9%), also following two consecutive monthly declines. New Claims, a leading labor market indicator, rose by 26.9 percent in December, ending a string of eight consecutive improvements in the last ten months. This apparently disappointing performance has several mitigating circumstances according to the DLT, so let’s not put too much weight into this month’s number. Finally, US Consumer Sentiment rose sharply once again in December (+13.5%), its fifth increase following three consecutive declines.

Retail Sales remained very strong in December, increasing by 5.5 percent compared to a year ago following a 9.1 percent rise in November. This indicator has now improved for eleven of the last thirteen months. Private Service-Producing Employment rose by 1.7 percent in December, its most rapid rate of growth in the last four months. Not surprisingly, Government Employment failed to improve once again. For December, it declined by 0.5 percent, remaining just below 60,000. Benefit Exhaustions, which reflects longer-term unemployment, fell by 22.7 percent relative to a year ago.

Finally, Rhode Island’s Labor Force rose by 0.5 percent versus a year ago, while continuing its string of monthly declines since June. Along with this, our Unemployment Rate fell to 6.8 percent, now the fifth highest nationally.

 

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Related Slideshow: 5 Ways Taveras Could Have Grown Jobs in Providence

During Angel Taveras' tenure as Mayor of Providence, the unemployment rate ballooned. According, to US Department of Labor statistics, Providence hit a 12.5% unemployment level in the spring on 2014. 

Hispanic unemployment is among the worst in the United States. GoLocal looked at tangible, revenue neutral ways Taveras' Administration could have grown jobs.

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Enforce First Source

1) Failure to Enforce First Source

DARE recently filed a lawsuit asking the court to appoint a moderator so that the Taveras administration would comply with the law that states that companies that get funding or special deals from the City of Providence make a best effort to employ people from the City.

A GoLocal investigation found the program is in chaos -- companies ignore the requirement (or claim that they they did not know about it). Worse yet, the City never enforced it. 

Jobs Lost: 1,100 estimated

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PEDP Reform

2) Providence Economic Development Partnership

All the problems with PEDP began before Taveras took office, but the "reforms" did little to improve the performance of the federally investigated and federally fined City agency. As GoLocal's Kate Nagle reported last October - three years into Taveras' administration:

"The Providence Economic Development Partnership (PEDP), which came under a federal investigation following a series of GoLocalProv reports, is still facing $2.8 million in loans past due according to documents secured by GoLocalProv through an access to public records request.

According to documents provided by the city to GoLocal, of 136 current loans with a total principle balance of $16.5 million, more than one-third -- 48 in total -- are more than 121 days past due.

The PEDP had voted to write off $2.1 million on loan debt in June 2012, but financial problems continue to persist as the city -- and its federal oversight agency -- determine how to proceed."

Jobs Lost: If the $2.8 million was collected and loaned, an estimated 80 to 120 additional jobs would have been created.

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Port of Providence

3) Port Financing Delayed

The Port of Providence/ProvPort received a $20 million federal grant to add cranes and barges to the Port.  The application was submitted by ProvPort in conjunction with the Cicilline Administration.  The U.S. DOT awarded the grant to the City at the end of the Cicilline administration, but the Taveras administration dragged their feet and delayed the project until the State had to step in and take over the project.  

The project was one year delayed and the barges are still not on site four years later.

Jobs Lost: 400 estimated

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Prov Police

4) Providence Police

May be one of the biggest mistakes of the Taveras administration was his devastating cuts to the Police Department  and the impact has not only been the number of police jobs, but the impact to police response and enforcement.

As GoLocal's Stephen Beale reported in 2012:

As of last week, the number of sworn officers stood at 428. A year and a half ago it was 494.

Joe Rodio, chief legal counsel for the police union, warns the city does not have enough officers. “The rank and file feel the strain because there’s not enough officers on the street,” Rodio said. “We’re feeling the hit from the number of people on the job.”

The numbers of sworn staff peaked at just over 500 during the Dean Esserman era. But during the 1990s the department functioned with a smaller complement, generally hovering around 440 officers. That makes the current force level the lowest it has been in two decades.
“It’s fair to say the numbers are the numbers. The staffing is at the lowest it has been in years,” said Chief Hugh Clements. “I would agree we need to start beefing up our numbers again.”

Jobs Lost: 80-95 Police Officers 
(note: Taveras finally started a police academy class in May of 2014)

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Downcity Vacancies

5) Businesses in Downcity

Providence now suffers from the 4th highest commercial real estate tax rate in the U.S. - a minimal improvement oover the last ranking. This is a fact not lost of businesses looking to locate in downtown. Providence is a long way from a city that was the HQ to Fleet Bank, Amica Insurance, Citizens Bank and hosts of others.

The Superman building is just one of the under-utilized office spaces downtown.  According to CBRE's New England Report, "Overall, there was 81,000 of square feet of negative absorption, but 59,000 square feet this came from the vacancy at One Weybosset (Superman)."

Jobs Missed: 89,000 square feet of leased office space would deliver 445 jobs. 

(Average manager position requires 150 office sq. ft., plus 50 feet common space)

 
 

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