Will Republicans Take Back the Senate?
Monday, July 19, 2010
From the nomination of Jack McConnell to the senior leadership positions of Sens. Jack Reed and Sheldon Whitehouse to funding for infrastructure repairs to Rhode Island, there is alot at stake in whether Democrats or Republicans maintain control of the United States Senate in 2011.
Currently, there are 59 members of the Democratic Caucus (including independent Lieberman and socialist Saunders). Thus, Republicans would need to win 51 seats to retain control of the Senate since, in a 50-50 tie, the Vice President votes to break the tie. That means Republicans need a change of 10 votes in the November elections. Do they have a shot?
I think so. But it's very slim.
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLASTHere's the seats that Republicans are targeting for a power shift on November 2nd (in descending order of likely Republican success). Click on the name of the state to see recent polling.
North Dakota - Democrat Byron Dorgan is retiring. Popular Republican Governor John Hoeven will cruise to victory.
Delaware - VP Biden's old seat is going red with Congressman Mike Castle holding a big lead over Chris Coons.
Indiana - Democrat Evan Bayh is retiring and Democratic Congressman Brad Ellsworth is losing in the polls to former U.S. Senator and lobbyist Dan Coats, the Republican.
Arkansas - Incumbent Democrat Blanche Lincoln barely survived her primary battle and now faces a strong challenge from Republican Congressman John Boozman.
Illinois - President Obama's old seat might be going red as Congressman Mark Kirk has a small lead over State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias.
Colorado - Incumbent Democrat Michael Bennet faces a stiff Primary challenge from former House Speaker Andrew Romanoff. In an interesting twist, Obama endorsed the former and Bill Clinton the latter. The winner faces former Lt. Governor Jane Norton who is winning against both in recent polling.
Nevada - Democratic Majority Leader Harry Reid is being challenged by tea-bagging Republican Sharron Angle. Polls are tied in recent surveys.
Pennsylvania - Democrat Arlen Specter lost his primary. Now, Democrat Joe Sestak and Republican Pat Toomey (Rhode Islanders of Club for Growth fame) are battling in the General Election.
California - Democrat Barbara Boxer faces a strong challenge from Republican businesswoman Carly Fiorina.
Washington - Democrat Patty Murray has a stiff challenge from perenniel Republican Candidate Dino Rossi.
Wisconsin - Democrat Russ Feingold has a surprisingly close race with Republican businessman Ron Johnson.
Connecticut - Democrat Chris Dodd is retiring. Despite some slipups, AG Richard Blumenthal looks to be holding a strong lead against Republican Linda McMahon.
West Virginia - It appears that a special election to fill Sen. Byrd's seat will happen this November and popular Democratic Governor Joe Manchin has big leads against all possible opponents.
There are a couple of seats with which Democrats are trying to play offense and pick up a few seats.
Florida - Repubican Mel Martinez retired. Conservative Republican will be going against former Republican and now Independent Charlie Crist and Democrat in the general. If Crist wins, will he caucus with the Democrats?
Ohio - Republica George Voinovich is retiring. Former Republican Congressman is neck and neck with Democratic Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher.
Missouri - Republican Kit Bond is retiring. Republican Congressman Roy Blount holds a small lead over Secretary of State Robin Carnahan.
New Hampshire - Republican Judd Gregg is retiring. Republican Attorney General Kelly Ayotte holds a lead over Democratic Congressman Paul Hodes.
North Carolina - Democratic Secretary of State Elaine Marshall is looking to come from behind and defeat incumbent Republican Sen. Richard Burr.
Kentucky - Republican Jim Bunning is retiring. Conservative Republican Rand Paul is likely to beat Democratic Attorney General Jack Conway.
