EXCLUSIVE: What Iowa Says About New Hampshire
Wednesday, January 04, 2012
In terms of New Hampshire’s concern with Iowa, not much: New Hampshire does not typically replicate Iowa’s results. But in terms of how Iowa reflects the mercurial temper of voters in this election cycle nationally, Granite State voters are likely to deliver similar surprises and are not entirely tone-deaf when it comes to (at the very least) paying a modicum of attention to Iowa.
New Hampshire
To understand New Hampshire’s low interest in Iowa we must consider its value in the overall process: only one Republican caucus winner (President George W. Bush) has won the general election (to be fair, New Hampshire’s own record in picking the eventual Party nominee itself is mixed).
But New Hampshire voters do have something in common with Iowa voters in significant volume: they don’t subscribe to early candidate coronations and can throw pollsters for a loop. Much as Iowa has thrown pundits a curveball last night by boosting US Senator Rick Santorum’s credibility in this race, New Hampshire is poised to deliver an unpredictable result.
The most noteworthy development in Iowa is Santorum’s rise as a credible contender – the razor thin-margin between him and Governor Mitt Romney rendered negligible by the scale of his newly minted presence as a front-runner in this race.
Written off by pundits as recently as last week, Iowa voters clearly had something else in mind for Santorum and have now blown this race wide open.
The lesson learned: polls don’t matter and voters are most definitely looking for a Romney alternative.
Santorum Factor
Santorum was hovering in the 6% range just two weeks ago and as recently as two days before the caucus had only surged up to 15% in a Des Moines Register poll. A third-place finish may have been a reasonable prediction, but his virtual tie with Romney in Iowa is a definite surprise. Look at those polling in third and fourth place in New Hampshire for potential, similar surprises.
Coming into New Hampshire, Santorum will need to capitalize on his momentum but will face a challenge in becoming the voice for a constituency that exists in greater volume in Iowa than in New Hampshire: evangelicals and religious conservatives. In New Hampshire, Santorum will need to sharpen his message on each fiscal and foreign policy. Despite the media exposure he will now receive there are only six days left for candidates to fine-tune their efforts in New Hampshire and that in and of itself is a logistical challenge for Santorum.
So far, the race in New Hampshire looks to be boiling down to three candidates: Romney, US Congressman Paul, and former Utah Governor and Ambassador Jon Huntsman. The opportunity for Santorum to project a more powerful voice in fiscal and foreign policy is the upcoming pair of presidential debates. Both will be held in New Hampshire, (Saturday and Sunday) – but with the potential for Huntsman and Paul to receive more air-time in light of their current standing in New Hampshire polls, Santorum is facing strong competition in those two issue areas.
Given US Congresswoman Michele Bachmann’s and Texas Governor Rick Perry’s declining presence in this race (and particularly in New Hampshire, which they have both chosen to bypass altogether – at the time of writing the Perry camp was reporting the Governor would return to Texas to ‘assess’ his campaign), there is a meaningful though small amount of voters that will be looking for a new candidate to support by next Tuesday’s First-in-the-Nation primary.
Considering that two candidates who were absent in the Iowa (Huntsman, who decided to skip the contest, and Cain who dropped out of the race a few weeks ago) still garnered the amount of votes Romney and Santorum may have needed to cement a decisive victory over the other, we can only conclude every vote a candidate can siphon from candidates like Bachmann and Perry will matter greatly in New Hampshire.
Paul’s and Huntsman’s numbers are bound to move up, particularly as New Hampshire voters who are in the “anyone-but-Romney” space begin to seriously consider alternatives to the former Massachusetts governor. The next few days in New Hampshire will deliver newly “decided” voters as well as shifts from one candidate to another – particularly with the likelihood of some candidates dropping out of the race by next Tuesday.
A wise gamble would be on a late Huntsman surge, which will put him either on top or in second place as many New Hampshire voters begin to gauge electability in the general election.
If Santorum’s surge in Iowa has any effect on New Hampshire it may be at Romney’s expense: for many potential voters Romney has been the default answer in polling, probably even before their minds are truly or fully made up. Romney has been campaigning longest and was the first one out of the gate. This has given him a clear advantage over all other candidates in terms of name identification. But Santorum’s rise could test the depth of his support if the most conservative and religious of Romney’s supporters in New Hampshire embrace Santorum at the last minute much as Iowa voters have.
New Hampshire Factor
In New Hampshire, much like the rest of the nation, candidates have generally moved up in the polls aggressively for a brief period only to torpedo straight back down. Two candidates have been the exception in this regard: Romney has maintained a steady place in polls while Huntsman has been on a steady, slow rise. Nationally, Huntsman has been largely dismissed, but his position in New Hampshire is most similar to Santorum’s in Iowa prior to the caucuses.
Paul’s challenge will be to attract the support of the “establishment” Republicans it doesn’t tend to court or embrace at his own peril. New Hampshire has libertarian leanings and Paul has been able to capitalize on that. He has even pierced into other Republican constituencies, (his positions on some social issues are actually quite conservative). But the scale of those gains outside libertarian-leaning Republicans is not yet sufficient to propel Paul to the top. In this respect, Huntsman seems better positioned to surge as the Romney alternative, particularly if Santorum makes a dent on Romney’s support.
Eduardo J. Lopez-Reyes is the National Vice Chairman, Republican Liberty Caucus; Member, Jon Huntsman for President New Hampshire Steering Committee. Previously, he was the Founder and Chairman Republican Hispanic Assembly of Rhode Island and Served as a staff Assistant to US Senator John H. Chafee.
Follow us on Facebook Twitter See It Read It Share It