30 Things to Watch on Election Day
Tuesday, November 06, 2012
It’s Election Day and GoLocalProv breaks down 30 things to watch in all of the races today.
1) Assuming Congressman David Cicilline cleans up in Providence (he won the city with 69.2 percent of the vote in 2010), Brendan Doherty will need to hold his own in East Providence and Pawtucket. But he doesn’t necessarily need to win either of those traditional Democratic hotbeds if he’s going to become the first Republican to win the 1st Congressional District since Ron Machtley in 1988. Look for the Republican to pick up big wins in his hometown of Cumberland and Lincoln, which should see a huge turnout thanks to the Twin River ballot question.
2) Everyone knows President Obama is going to win running away in the Ocean State, but don’t underestimate what the field expertise of Obama’s Rhode Island campaign manager Devin Driscoll will mean down the ticket. Having Obama and Sheldon Whitehouse (the Senator received nearly 16,000 more votes than Democratic Gubernatorial candidate Charlie Fogarty in 2006) ahead of him on the ballot may save Congressman Cicilline.
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLAST3) If the Congressman does hold on to his seat, he may want to send a fruit basket to Independent David Vogel, who many believe is stealing some of the Anyone But Cicilline vote away from Doherty. While only conspiracy theorists would believe Vogel was some type of Cicilline plant, it is worth noting that campaign finance records show he did contribute $200 to Cicilline’s Mayoral campaign several years ago. For what it’s worth, Vogel told GoLocalProv that the contribution was made in his name by his mother.
4) One area Doherty stands to benefit is with undecided voters. Conventional wisdom suggests that undecideds tend to break with the challenger, which would mean the Republican stands to pick up several points if last week’s WPRI poll is accurate.
5) For those paying attention to the national outlook, FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver is giving President Obama a 92 percent chance to win re-election . Silver also gives the Democrats a 91.5 percent chance to keep the Senate. Republicans are considered a lock to keep the House.
6) While Congressman Cicilline stands to benefit from a redistricting process that gave him more of Providence, it will certainly come at the expense of Congressman James Langevin. No one expects Langevin to lose today, but this could be the first time a Republican has come within 20 points of him since he began running for Congress in 2000. An impressive showing from Republican Mike Riley could soften up Langevin for another Republican in 2014.
7) Riley has poured hundreds of thousands of dollars of his own money into what turned into a spirited campaign, but he says he won’t be among the Republicans eyeing Langevin’s seat in 2014 if he goes down today. On multiple occasions, he has said this will be the one and only time he runs for Congress.
8) The same can’t be said for Senate candidate Barry Hinckley, whose strong debate performances and ability to raise money have instantly made him a rising star in the Republican Party. Hinckley won’t win today, but his name recognition will give him plenty of options in 2014. Same goes for Brendan Doherty, who likely has a bright political future no matter the outcome today.
9) While Doherty and Hinckley are becoming the darlings of the state GOP, there are conflicting views on how well the Republicans will do in local races today. Democrats believe the Republicans could actually lose seats in the General Assembly, but Republicans are predicting several big victories. The House candidates with legitimate chances to win include Keith Anderson (D-29), James Haldeman (D-35), Clay Johnson (D-35), James Archer (D-44), Donald Fox (D-47) and Peter Costa (D-67). The Republican Senate candidates who could pull off victories today include Jay Forgue (D-23), Sean Gately (D-26) and Tina McKendall (D-36).
10) The hope for State Republicans this year is that they can pick up a few seats and begin building a farm system that allows them to continue to produce quality candidates moving forward. Those who win House seats today can look toward Senate seats in the future and move up the ladder if they continue to show success.
11) If there is one district where the Republicans have to be kicking themselves for not putting up a candidate, it has to be House District 71, where Dan Gordon didn’t qualify for the ballot. In one of the most conservative districts in the state, Democrat Dennis Canario has no opponent at all.
12) Another Republican seat at stake is House District 50, where former House Minority Leader Bob Watson is retiring. The GOP has a solid candidate in Antonio Giarrusso, but Democrat Mark Schwager has both Senator Jack Reed and Congressman Jim Langevin campaigning for him today. Democrats aren’t saying the seat is a lock, but they like Schwager’s chances.
13) Today could be a make or break day for Fight Back RI, the PAC formed by Marriage Equality Rhode Island (MERI). The group has its fingers crossed that House Speaker Gordon Fox will on to his seat and still wants to pick up a few seats in both chambers. Gay marriage supporters were happy to hear Fox pledge to bring same-sex marriage to a vote in January because it will give them ample time to work on the Senate, which is still considered a major obstacle.
14) Same-sex marriage supporters know they can’t afford to lose any seats in the Senate, which is why they’re keeping a close eye on the Senate District 26 battle between Democrat Frank Lombardi and Republican Sean Gately. Gay marriage supporter Bea Lanzi is retiring and now Fight Back RI, who targeted Lombardi during his primary, has endorsed Gately.
15) Of course, if Speaker Fox is defeated by Independent Mark Binder, same-sex marriage may be dead altogether. Binder ran an aggressive campaign that, while criticized by some, was clearly very effective. Fox meanwhile was reactive all the way until the end when he brought in former Congressman Patrick Kennedy in a last ditch effort to hold on to his seat.
16) Fox’s team sent out an aggressive mailer on Saturday that criticized Binder’s campaign for, among other things, being managed by Republican operatives. Although his name was not mentioned, it is clear that Jeff Britt, a former Don Carcieri and Frank Caprio ally who also consulted for Fox, was the target in that ad.
But even if Fox holds on to his seat, don’t expect Britt to simply disappear. There’s a reason Fox was the target of television commercials and radio ads in a District race. Expect Fox to continue to face criticism as he prepares to run for re-election for Speaker in January.
17) The key issue that has haunted Fox and a number of incumbents this year is 38 Studios. Binder managed to work Curt Schilling’s failed video game company into every statement the way Congressman Cicilline did with Social Security and Medicare and that message appears to have resonated with a lot of votes.
18) Either way, there is no shortage of names being thrown around as potential successors to Fox. Finance chairman Helio Melo clearly has the inside track, but Johnston Rep. Stephen Ucci, Pawtucket Rep. J Patrick O’Neill and Providence Rep. John DeSimone are all popular enough to put together votes to make a run at Speaker.
19) Speaking of Britt, Binder’s campaign isn’t the only race he’s working on. He’s also managing State Rep. Jon Brien’s write-in campaign in District 50. Brien lost his Democratic primary to the union-backed Stephen Casey, but he believes he has a legitimate chance to pull off a write-in victory today.
20) Aside from those jockeying to become the next Speaker of the House, it won’t be long before plenty of names are thrown around for the key 2014 races. Ernest Almonte is already running for Governor as a Democrat, but both General Treasurer Gina Raimondo and Providence Mayor Angel Taveras are also considered potential challengers in that race. And who will run on the Republican side? Will the GOP give John Robitaille a second chance or will a guy like Cranston Mayor Allan Fung or Barry Hinckley take a shot?
21) And if you’re looking for politicians who may rise fast in the General Assembly, take a look at 19 District 23 candidate Joe Shekarchi, District 44 candidate Greg Costantino and John Lombardi in District 8. Shekarchi and Costantino both have competitive races today, but all three candidates have been around politics long enough to know how the game works.
22) Be sure to keep an eye on the races in House District 47 and Senate District 23. Two solid Republicans, Don Fox and Jay Forgue, have the opportunity to knock off sitting Democrats in these conservative districts. In D-47 however, incumbent Democrat Cale Keable may benefit from having Providence Rep. Chris Blazejewski run his campaign. Blazejewski won his September primary by a larger margin than any other incumbent with a challenger this year.
23) It will be interesting to see what, if any, impact Massachusetts Senate candidate Elizabeth Warren has on the Rhode Island races. Warren is now considered a favorite in her race against Scott Brown and her commercials were very similar to the messages pushed by Cicilline, Langevin and Whitehouse. Will that hurt Rhode Island’s Republicans?
24) The key ballot questions today are related to table games. Voters statewide and in Lincoln (for Twin River) and Newport (for Newport Grand) will need to vote in favor of allowing games such as blackjack, craps and roulette. The consensus seems to be that both questions will be supported, but don’t be surprised if it’s much closer in Newport than it is in Lincoln.
25) Pay close attention to voter turnout both in Rhode Island and across the country. In 2008, young people and minorities turned out in record numbers to support President Obama, but so much of the 2012 races were centered on Social Security and Medicare. Did Obama and all the Congressional candidates work hard enough to give non-elderly voters a reason to come out today?
26) Political junkies should also have an eye on the Central Falls Mayoral primary today, where five candidates are vying for two spots in the general election. It seems Councilman James Diossa, who has outraised everyone else in the race combined, has garnered a lot of attention, but former Mayor Tom Lazieh and former chief of police Joe Moran III are considered credible challengers as well.
27) Here are two more House races that have conservatives optimistic: In House District 54, Independent Ken Amoriggi may end up caucusing with Republicans if he knocks off Democrat William O’Brien and in House District 39, Republican Clay Johnson has a real chance to unseat progressive Larry Valencia.
28) There are fewer questions on the Senate side, but leadership certainly made Hanna Gallo’s seat in District 27 their top priority. Gallo faces a three-way battle with Independent Aram Garabedian (the owner of the Warwick mall) and Republican Robert Lancia. Democratic leaders say they’re cautiously optimistic Gallo will retain her seat.
29) One surprise to come out of the 2012 election locally is that there wasn’t much of an effort made by the Occupy Providence crowd to get involved in the political process. The group built a lot of momentum last year and it would have been interesting to see them put up candidates in General Assembly races.
30) For those who enjoy partying with the pols, the Democrats will host their election night celebration at the Biltmore in Providence and Republicans will meet at the Providence Marriot.
Dan McGowan can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter: @danmcgowan.
