The debates are over, and now it is time to vote. The candidates served up a lot to chew on in their final encounters, so let’s “brunch” on that this week.
“WikiLeaks” – I thought this was Donald Trump’s best debate – though it was not without its problems. More about that in a moment. Trump’s best moment was when he confronted Hillary Clinton about one of her speeches that was produced in an email hack by WikiLeaks. It was a speech to Brazilian bankers in which she advocated for “open borders” in the U.S. While Clinton maintained she was talking about energy policy, Trump argued she was talking about immigration policy. It was one of his hardest hits of the night.
“Late in the Game” – Trump could use more “moments” like the ones provided by WikiLeaks. The problem is that time, momentum, and format are not on his side. The election is November 8, but early voting is already underway in many states. If more incriminating emails come out from WikiLeaks on - say November 1, all the people who early voted can’t go back and change their ballots. It’s also hard to change minds in the eleventh hour, and the number of undecided voters is dwindling.
“Combative Versus Mean” – One of Donald Trump’s best qualities is his combativeness – unless it goes too far. Look, he got to this point in the race because he is spontaneous, unscripted, and blunt. There really is no filter. Renowned pollster Frank Luntz has done focus groups throughout the campaign where debate viewers control a dial in which they can react positively or negatively to a candidate’s remarks. Trump always scores well when he is feisty and combative, but his ratings turn negative when he starts name calling, such as when he said Hillary Clinton was a “liar,” or “such a nasty woman.” When he crosses the line, many voters go thumbs down. Suddenly, his biggest asset – his candor – becomes a liability.
“Al Smith Dinner” – My same critique might be said for his remarks at the quadrennial Al Smith Dinner the night following the debate. Some of his jokes about Hillary Clinton were hysterical; and, in turn, some of her barbs aimed at him were quite funny. But when he crossed the line into personal attacks during what is supposed to be a bipartisan and satirical event, he crossed the line. The fallout is that the mean clips dominate the news coverage, and all the funny stuff gets forgotten. There’s an old saying: “Quit while you’re ahead,” and Trump should have abided by it. He would have won the night in the candidates' last joint appearance. Likability is a great last-minute impression to leave on wavering or undecided voters.
“The Clinton Strategy” – I thought the strongest moment in the debate for Clinton was when she criticized Trump for his behavior towards women. Instead of mentioning women who have made allegations of sexual impropriety about Trump (which could have brought a backlash on Clinton), she chose to talk about the female reporter who wrote the article. “He attacked the woman reporter writing the story, called her disgusting as he has called a number of women during this campaign. Donald thinks belittling women makes him bigger,” Clinton said. By attacking Trump in this way, Clinton hit hard on an issue that has hurt Trump, without allowing him to return fire by talking about Bill Clinton’s treatment of women and about Hillary’s protection of her husband.
“Early Voting” – I offer the above advice because this campaign will leave a lot of “lessons learned” for future candidates. There is the old bromide, “You only have one chance to make a first impression.” The other end of that should be, “You only have one chance to make a final impression before people vote.” I say this because Election Day may be November 8, but a lot of people can now vote early. For example, following the final debate and the Al Smith Dinner, early voting was already underway in 24 states. This week, 13 more states will join that list. If everyone had to wait until Election Day, some of the negative images have a chance to fade. But if they can vote the morning after the final debate, last impressions can be powerful.
“The Handshake” – I used to coach a lot of youth sports, and the one thing we stressed to the kids was sportsmanship – win, lose, or draw. The captains would shake hands at the start of the game, and the players and coaches from each side would shake hands after the game. It was a great life lesson about competition and camaraderie. I think the candidates should shake hands before and after the debate. They look petty and small when they don’t.
“Respect for the Process” – Speaking of sportsmanship, Trump’s refusal to commit to accepting the results of the election seemed odd. “I will look at it at the time,” Trump said. That led to speculation he might not concede the election should he lose. Now it’s one thing to hold off on a concession if the race is close (as it was in 2000), or if there is evidence of significant voter fraud. But election concessions are a time-honored tradition in American politics. I thought in 1992 President George H.W. Bush gave one of the classiest concessions. It’s especially tough when you’re the incumbent President and you lose. Still, you congratulate your opponent and pledge cooperation and healing to the nation. It’s not only polite; it’s patriotic.
Have you early voted? If so, why, and in which state? Just click the comment button at www.MarkCurtisMedia.com.
Related Slideshow: Trump’s Performance at Pivotal Second Presidential Debate with Clinton
1. Did Trump's performance in the debate serve to help his candidacy?
We did not see a contrite Donald Trump in this debate. He tripled down on many of his past statements. He claimed Bill Clinton is a rapist. He threatened to put Hillary Clinton in jail. This may help him with his base, but not with undecided voters. I don't think Trump helped himself expand his support.
2. What was the role of the controversial live-mic comments?
Clinton condemned Trump's insults and presented a positive vision for the country. She criticized him for not paying federal income taxes and defended Obama's health care program.
3. Is there a path to victory for Trump?
I think Clinton did a better job than Trump in expanding her support. She was knowledgeable about policy issues and displayed a good temperament for being president. I don't see a path to victory for Trump given his lewd comments and failure to pay federal income taxes. The most shocking part of this debate was Trump's threat to put Clinton in prison over her emails. I can't remember any recent campaign where someone mad that threat.
Joseph Paolino, Former Mayor of Providence and Clinton Appointee (Ambassador to Malta)
1. Did Trump's performance in the debate serve to help his candidacy?
I thought [Clinton] did a good job. I thought Trump seemed erratic -- he got involved in minutiae, like time management, in all that stuff which was a diversion. Granted, he needed a diversion. But CNN ultimately found Clinton talked more than him in total minutes.
I think disagreeing with his Vice President was a bit of a problem. Letting dictators run countries? Again, I thought Clinton did really well. I'm trying to figure out what Trump was thinking bringing those women out -- was that part of the debate? No, but he tried to make it though.
2. What was the role of the controversial live-mic comments?
I think there's still going be fixation on the live mic [comments], but it will be the media to decide what that fixation is.
3. Is there a path to victory for Trump?
She showed she's in control of the facts, the issues, that she's intelligent, that she's been helping children and families. What he showed is he's an expert in avoiding taxes, and again, when he talks about others not paying [taxes] as well, he causes diversions -- I'm less concerned about the tax diversion more concerned that he lost nearly a billion dollars.
1. Did Trump's performance in the debate serve to help his candidacy?
Trump really helped himself tonight by living to fight another day. Trump used humor, did not interrupt as much, and remained poised after a brutal weekend of coverage on the tape. Hillary once again showed she is a skilled debater but seemed rattled at times tonight and he really had her on the ropes.
2. What was the role of the controversial live-mic comments?
The beginning of the debate was awkward, uncomfortable, and incredibly tense. After they dealt with the tape, Trump seemed to gain momentum tonight. Trump going after moderators plays to his core crowd of voters.
3. Is there a path to victory for Trump?
Trump kept his path to victory open tonight. This debate really will help him get energy back and his supporters loved it. Tonight was a huge night for Trump supporters.
June Speakman, Roger Williams University Professor
1. Did Trump's performance in the debate serve to help his candidacy?
Trump’s performance in this debate was better than in the first. He was more focused and organized in his attacks on Clinton. But he persisted with the interrupting behavior, and his physical presence on the stage—pacing and standing a bit too close to Clinton—did nothing to dispel the impression of, shall we say, ungentlemanly conduct towards women. His candidacy cannot be saved or lost by a single debate performance. It is the accumulation of behaviors, comments and context that will determine his fate.
2. Were was the role of the controversial live-mic comments?
Throughout this campaign, Mr. Trump has made comments that have offended women, Gold Star families, immigrants, Muslim-Americans, Americans with disabilities and more. Any one of these episodes or comments would have sunk another candidate, yet Trump has weathered them all. Those of us watching the campaign keep wondering if and when the fatal mistake will be made. The live-mic comments may be that mistake because of their rawness and their undeniability. The departure of so many Republicans from Trump’s camp is certainly a sign of the seriousness of this particular case. Yet, in this wild, unpredictable year, who knows?
3. Is there a path to victory for Trump?
At this point, it is difficult to see a path to victory, but as noted before, this campaign breaks the mold used by political scientist to analyze elections. In the last month of most campaigns, the ground game become more important, as most voters have settled on their choice, and now need to be motivated to vote on Election Day. Swing states like Florida and Pennsylvania have moved significantly towards Clinton. That has everything to do with her advertising strategy and her ground game, and very little to do with debate performances. Trump’s live-mic comments help solidify Clinton’s support and make her path to victory more secure. And if, as many suspect, there are more revelations to come about Trump, the move in Clinton’s direction is even stronger.
1. Did Trump's performance in the debate serve to help his candidacy?
What candidate Trump needed was a masterful, nuanced debate performance and also one that does a better job of contrition than he displayed on the televised response on Friday night. That did not happen. The essential components in a political apology include admitting the wrongful behavior and asking for forgiveness. A successful strategy can only involve blame shifting if another party shares responsibility for the incident. Turning the tables and discussing Bill Clinton's past in order to deflect the candidate's critics did very little to help Trump's cause, and likely failed to sway undecided voters.
2. What was the role of the controversial live-mic comments?
The open-mic video was a watershed moment for the Trump campaign. While some GOP leaders have abandoned Trump, others have attempted to separate the incident from Trump's potential as a candidate. The problem with the latter strategy is that the behavior in question has to be viewed by voters as an aberration in order to be forgiven. Trump's open-mic conversation and the likelihood of more videos to come would seem to reinforce the belief that the candidate's attitude toward women runs deep and is a basic component of the his character. Dismissing his transgressions as merely "locker-room talk" did nothing tonight to improve the noted gender gap in his support. That's not good news for the candidate.
3. Is there a path to victory for Trump?
We never say never with a month to go in a campaign. Yet, if there is a path for victory for Donald Trump, it surely is a "long and winding road." All that is required of Clinton is to stay steady. For Trump--amid unprecedented denouncements and defections from his own party--he faces the herculean task of somehow changing the conversation, something that he did not accomplish tonight with his debate performance. How will we know that there is no longer a path to victory for Trump? Look for GOP leaders to switch strategies and shift resources and talking points to the down-ballot races. They will begin to argue the advantages of a divided government as the way in which the party can exert control over a Clinton presidency.
1. Did Trump's performance in the debate serve to help his candidacy?
Help.
2. What was the role of the controversial live-mic comments?
His 2005 live mic moment is inexcusable and it will never be acceptable to talk about women that way. I'm disgusted by it and I won't spin or deflect from his words. I don't believe he physically abused women as I'm sure we'd know about that by now.
3. Is there a path to victory for Trump?
As stated succinctly by our strategist, Hillary Clinton spent the night struggling to defend her failed record. Whether dodging why she deleted 33,000 emails from her secret server, invoking Abraham Lincoln to justify her own lies, or failing to explain her secret speeches to Wall Street, Hillary Clinton spent this debate running from the truth and proving she’s the poster child for a rigged system. The country is eager to break from a failed status quo that rewards D.C. insiders at the expense of ordinary Americans but that’s exactly what she is promising. Donald Trump rejected the politics of cronyism and made it clear he will bring strong leadership, prosperity and security to our country.
He has a path to victory but that path includes a close to perfect 4 weeks for Mr. Trump. She will continue to move her lips and lie but she still has an easier path because it is contingent on his actions or inactions.
Sam Bell, State Director, RI Progressive Democrats of America
1. Did Trump's performance in the debate serve to help his candidacy?
No.
2. What was the role of the controversial live-mic comments?
Trump had lost the election before this latest scandal. The American people recognize that he is clearly unfit to serve as President. The only question now is whether any conservatives will continue to stand by him. It's time for Rhode Island's conservative politicians in both parties ("Democrat" Jimmy McLaughlin went to Trump's rally) to unite as one and denounce Trump.
3. Is there a path to victory for Trump?
There isn't a path to electoral victory for Trump, but there is probably a path towards the only kind of victory that matters to him--money. It probably is the case that this election has raised Trump's profile, and there may well be a way for him to cash in on his name. And that may well be all he was trying to do in the first place.
1. Did Trump's performance in the debate serve to help his candidacy?
No - he was rambling again, and he could not stay on point and answer questions succinctly. He combined different thoughts when asked a specific question.
2. What was the role of the controversial live-mic comments?
The questions were awful and not getting to policies that people were actually interested in hearing. I was particularly insulted by the so called energy question...not climate change!
The question was obviously written by the friends of Exxon Mobile
3. Is there a path to victory for Trump?
Trump is on a path to victory - attention for him and his businesses. That was probably the only thing he really wanted out of this.
1. Did Trump's performance in the debate serve to help his candidacy?
Clinton clearly had Trump hearing what could have been his own political China Syndrome. If he had a saving moment, it was his ability to finally crystallize what most Americans have been thinking. Despite these grand plans, why has Hillary left behind an unadulterated trail of failure and chaos?
It is only there, not his muddled vision of foreign affairs, nor his xenophobic immigration policy, lies any hope of growth beyond the red meat of his cult of personality.
2. What was the role of the controversial live-mic comments?
The most startling revelation of the night came with Trump indicating he was going to employ the very same damage control technique that Bill Clinton pioneered - a classic apology, non-apology for his latest sexual peccadillo....followed by a launch headfirst into the preferred talking points
3. Is there a path to victory for Trump?
Path to victory? Probably not ... possibility of saving the GOP? Particularly after throwing his VP under the Middle East bus? Maybe.
