“The Sunday Political Brunch”—November 20, 2016

Sunday, November 20, 2016

Mark Curtis, GoLocal Contributor

 

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I usually wait a week to ten days to weigh in with greater detail on election results. As witnessed on social media, people are really hostile and angry. I get that. Losing – whether a football game or an election - is no fun. People have so much emotionally invested in their choices,, and that’s okay. Passion for politics has kept us as a great incubator of democracy – however imperfect the experiment can be at times. There are some lessons to chat about, so let’s “brunch” on that this week:

“Basket Full of Deplorables” – It’s okay to attack the other candidate, because that’s just how politics works. A Republican candidate calls a Democratic candidate a name, and vice versa. But, when you attack the other candidate’s supporters it’s a whole different story, and often it backfires. This year, when Hillary Clinton referred to half of Trump’s supporters as a “basket full of deplorables,” it failed badly. In 2012, Republican Mitt Romney said, “All right, there are 47 percent who are with him [Obama], who are dependent upon government…who believe that they are entitled to health care, to food, to housing, to you name it.” Lesson: It’s okay to insult your opposing candidate, but when you insult the people who actually vote, it can often be political suicide. It does not play well with independent, undecided, or wavering voters.

“Senate Owes Trump” -- A lot of establishment Republicans wanted nothing to do with Donald Trump, and some openly opposed him. But here’s an unmistakable reality from Election Day. Republicans owe control of the Senate to Trump. Yes, Republicans in Florida and Ohio won reelection on their own, without Trump’s help. But in North Carolina, Wisconsin, Indiana, and Pennsylvania, Republican Senate candidates won with great help from Trump’s coattails. If not for Trump, Democrats would have seized control of the U.S. Senate. Watch Cabinet appointments, judgeships, and treaties. The Senate is in Trump’s debt, and he’ll try to cash in!

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“House-Keeping” – On the other hand – and this could be troublesome for Trump - the House owes him nothing. Sure, the Republicans lost six seats, but they still hold a big majority. By the way, don’t buy the line about the perceived split or major gulf between Trump and House Speaker Paul Ryan. Ryan had to distance himself from Trump so he could help local Congressional candidates win. It was about Ryan holding his own majority in the House. Newt Gingrich did a similar thing in 1996, openly advising more liberal House Republicans, like Rep. Scott Klug (R-WI) and Rep. Tom Campbell (R-CA), to run ads against Newt - if need be - to show their independence. Gingrich still needed them to win – to hold his majority - and his strategy worked.

“The Priebus-Pence Ticket” – Yes, I know the ticket was Trump-Pence, but the real duo to watch is the ticket of Reince Priebus – the incoming White House Chief of Staff – and Vice President Mike Pence. Donald Trump is one of the few Presidents this nation has elected who has never held any other elective office. But the government is not run by the White House alone; Congress and the Federal Courts are the other legs of the barstool. Pence served 12 years in the U.S. House, rising to the fourth-ranking leadership position. Priebus headed the Republican National Committee for six years, and is close to his fellow Wisconsinite, Speaker Paul Ryan. The Priebus-Pence team will be formidable shepherding legislation through Congress.

“Protests Will Fade” -- They are mad about the outcome: Trump won the Electoral College, while Hillary Clinton won the popular vote. I understand the gut-wrenching emotion that brings. But the anger won’t sustain itself. You need an issue to hang your hat on. No one is claiming voter fraud, ballot rigging, voting by the dead, voter intimidation, or any of the other nefarious anti-voter behaviors we often hear about in a close election. Short of any substantive allegations of wrongdoing, the election outcome has finality (though not popular to many), and it stands. People will vent until they get tired, or it’s too cold to be outside.
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“2018 Road Map” – If Democrats thought they had a bad night in 2016, it may only get worse. In 2018, Democrats are defending 25 Senate seats (their own 23 and the two independents who caucus with them), while Republicans only defend eight seats. Even though the party out of power in the White House usually gains seats in Congress in the midterm elections, the disproportional number of Democrats defending seats in the Senate does not bode well for the minority party.

“Cheeseheads Rule!” – Okay, I admit my bias as I grew up in Wisconsin, and it will always be home to me. But it may have the most political clout of any state in the nation right now. Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) is Speaker of the House. Kenosha resident Reince Priebus is RNC Chairman and future White House Chief of Staff. Governor Scott Walker (R-WI) is now Chairman of the Republican Governors Association. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) won reelection on a night everyone predicted he’d lose, thus helping the GOP hold control of the Senate. And, Federal Court of Appeals Judge Diane Sykes is on Trump’s short list of nominees for the U.S. Supreme Court. My only wish is that all this “Cheesehead Power” could somehow help the Green Bay Packers win a few more games and get to the Super Bowl this season!

Skip the politics! Which is your favorite professional football team since I’m claiming the Packers? Just click the comment button at www.MarkCurtisMedia.com.

 

Related Slideshow: Winners and Losers - 2016 Election

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Winner

Joe Trillo and John DePetro

While most Republicans in Rhode Island were hiding in the bushes, Trillo (the former GOP lawmaker) and DePetro (the WPRO talk show host) were loyal advocates for Donald Trump from the beginning and through the rough spots.

Both could be big winners and could score slots with the administration -- want to go to the White House? You now know the rings you need to kiss.

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Winner

Donald Trump, President of the United States

The most unlikely candidate pulled off the biggest victory in Presidential history. The billionaire developer was underestimated which set forth much of his success during the primaries and in the election. The next four years will never be dull.   

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Winner

General Michael Flynn

The Rhode Island native and URI grad will have a major roll in the Trump Administration and America's foreign policy. As top GOP consultant Ian Prior wrote in GoLocal in July about Flynn when he was on the VP shortlist:

Of course, there are any number of national security experts that can prosecute the case against Hillary Clinton, but Flynn is unique. He is a registered Democrat that was appointed by President Obama in 2012 to serve as Director of the DIA. Even more importantly, he resigned two years later over what he believed to be a misguided approach by the administration as it concerned ISIS.

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Loser

Nellie Gorbea, Secretary of State

This year's election was one of the the most mismanaged in modern Rhode Island history. First, the Chief-of Staff of the Secretary of State's office gets into a battle with talk show host John DePetro on social media. The action seemed inappropriate at best for the head of the office administering the election.

Then, the state's Presidential election hit a number of rough spots with faulty equipment and a failed repair and triage system that lead to long lines and frustration in a number of communities across the state.

The job of Secretary of State has three major components:

1) Take care of the State's achieves

2) Maintain a database of businesses

3) Run the state's elections

She needs to assure voters that she understands the problems and correct the mistakes.

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Loser

Brandon Bell, GOP Chair

Both Democratic Congressional candidates won big. The GOP had a net loss in the legislature.

Bell went all in on taking out Speaker Nick Mattiello -- a pro-business legislator, instead of recruiting a large number of competitive candidates. If Mattiello delivers of paper ballots like his campaign claims - Bell will have wildly miscalculated at every level and will have left the GOP a weaker party.

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Losers

Cicilline and Langevin

A Trump win greatly increases the likelihood that Rhode Island will lose a Congressional seat in the next federal redistricting. Rhode Island will be more like Vermont and Delaware -- two Senators and just one House member. This will mean a big loss for Rhode Island's clout in D.C.

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Winner

Allan Fung, Republican Mayor of Cranston

Fung had just the kind of night he wanted to have. He ran up big numbers against Democrat Mike Sepe and put parkinggate in his proverbial rear window.

The margin of victory is impressive -- Fung ran up 68% of the vote and has established himself as one of the top Republicans in Rhode Island.

Now, the personable Fung is the GOP frontrunner to challenge Raimondo as it does not look like she is going to Washington, D.C. now.

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Loser

RI's Broken Technology Infrastructure 

No money, no car, and no vote.

Lets see if we got this right. You have to wait in line to vote in some locations for as much as two hours because not enough scanners were deployed. Some days you can't register your car because the Hewlett-Packard system is not deployed and the state is now suing the company. And, tens of thousands of folks most in need have not been able to get their most critical benefits (or the from benefits) because the UHIP technology was flawed despite hundreds of millions being spent. 

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Winner

Speaker of the House, Nick Mattiello

If Mattiello does hold on to his House seat, he will be a stronger Speaker than ever before. He has added more Democrats to his majority and was the architect to many of the Democrats victories. 

The simmering stress between Mattiello and Raimondo will turn into a vibrant boil over during the next two years. Raimondo was no help to Mattiello or House members -- they had to clean up for her truck tolls and absorb her unwillingness to release 38 Studios documents.

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Loser

Gina Raimondo, Governor

Raimondo's options and national political network just took a major blow. No longer can Raimondo jump to the Clinton Administration to avoid a difficult reelection. Moreover, national Democratic connections are now in Siberia as the Presidency, the House and the Senate are all in Republican hands.

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Loser

Peter F. Neronha United States Attorney District of Rhode Island 

In a short period, it is highly likely the Neronha and a few other high profile political appointees will be replaced by the Trump White House. 

The impact of Ray Gallison and others is an unknown.

 

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